Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Globalstar, Inc. (GSAT)
NASDAQCommunication ServicesTelecommunications ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$84.58+0.97%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQCommunication ServicesTelecommunications ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for GSAT yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Adjusted EBITDA margin near 50% in 2026 | A primary condition in Globalstar, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is 50%. | Broken | Adjusted EBITDA margin falls below 45% in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earningsObserved price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
GSAT is a high-risk satellite communications growth story, with much of its long-term case tied to expanding its network and completing its Amazon merger. The thesis is currently intact, but recent signals have turned cautious and the company remains loss-making.
GSAT is valued at a 37.81% premium to peers, and the valuation model has low confidence. Optionality, or value investors assign to possible future opportunities, is a key part of the valuation; the evidence flags the valuation as unjustified, though overall fragility is rated low.
Near term, results may remain uneven: GSAT missed its two most recent reported quarters, while the risk assessment describes the chance of another miss as low. Management is progressing toward the Amazon merger, expected to close in 2027 subject to approvals and satellite milestones, and is continuing satellite expansion plans. Adjusted EBITDA varied between the first and second quarters of 2026, while management maintained its approximately 50% margin guidance for 2025 and 2026.
The multi-year view depends on regulatory approval and satellite milestones for the Amazon merger, along with delivery on the next-generation constellation and margin goals. Near term, a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative; easier interest rates or stronger results and guidance from large telecom peers could support the sector backdrop.
Over the next one to three years, GSAT’s thesis rests on merger progress, satellite execution, and more consistent financial delivery, against an expensive valuation and elevated risk. The thesis is intact, but its recent shift to cautious reflects real execution and earnings uncertainty. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| The merger with Amazon could boost its growth and strategy. |
| Intact |
| Merger fails or is significantly delayed beyond 2026 |
FCC approval received 2026-10-28 vs target close by end 2026 FCC approved the $11.5B Amazon Leo acquisition on Oct 28, 2026, strongly reinforcing the merger timeline. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “• Continued progress on regulatory approval process in connection with the previously announced Merger Agreement with Amazon, with expiration of the waiting period under the HSR Act in July 2026.” “RECENT OPERATIONAL HIGHLIGHTS Pending Mergers with Amazon.com, Inc.: On April 13, 2026, the Company entered into an Agreement and Plan of Merger (the “Merger Agreement”) with Amazon.com, Inc. (“Amazon”), pursuant to which Amazon intends to acquire the Company, subject to the satisfaction of certain conditions (collectively, the “Mergers”).” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Revenue between $280M and $305M in 2026 | A primary condition in Globalstar, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is ~$292.5M. | Intact | Revenue falls below $280M in FY26 | Revenue: $64.772M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$292.5M. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 202664,772,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.31 → $-0.10 · observed estimates
$0.35B → $0.35B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.31 | $345,785,940 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.10 | $339,839,502 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.10 | $339,839,502 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.10 | $339,839,502 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.31 | $345,785,940 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.31 | $345,785,940 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.11 | $340,457,100 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.31 | $345,785,940 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.11 | $340,457,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.31 | $345,785,940 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.31 | $345,785,940 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-0.11 | $340,457,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.31 | $345,785,940 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.31 | $345,785,940 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-0.11 | $340,457,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.31 | $345,785,940 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.31 | $345,785,940 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-0.11 | $340,457,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.31 | $345,785,940 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.31 | $345,785,940 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.11 | $340,457,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.11 | $340,457,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.11 | $340,457,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.11 | $340,457,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.11 | $340,457,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.11 | $340,457,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.17 | $334,225,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.17 | $334,225,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.17 | $334,225,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.17 | $334,225,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.10 | $346,450,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.10 | $346,450,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.10 | $346,450,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.10 | $346,450,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.10 | $346,450,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.10 | $346,450,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.10 | $346,450,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.10 | $346,450,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.10 | $346,450,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.10 | $346,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.10 | $346,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.10 | $346,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.10 | $346,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.10 | $346,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.10 | $346,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.10 | $346,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.10 | $346,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.10 | $346,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.10 | $346,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.10 | $346,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.10 | $346,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.10 | $346,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.10 | $346,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.10 | $346,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.10 | $346,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.10 | $346,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.10 | $346,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.10 | $346,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.10 | $346,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.10 | $346,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.10 | $346,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.10 | $346,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.10 | $346,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.10 | $346,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.10 | $346,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.10 | $346,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.10 | $346,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.10 | $346,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.10 | $346,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.10 | $346,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.10 | $346,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.10 | $346,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.10 | $346,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.10 | $346,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.10 | $346,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.10 | $346,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.10 | $346,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.10 | $346,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.10 | $346,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.10 | $346,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.10 | $346,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.10 | $346,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.10 | $346,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.10 | $346,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.10 | $346,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.10 | $346,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.10 | $346,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.10 | $346,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.10 | $346,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.10 | $346,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.10 | $346,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.10 | $346,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.10 | $346,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.10 | $346,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.10 | $346,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.10 | $346,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.10 | $346,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.10 | $346,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.10 | $346,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.10 | $346,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.10 | $346,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.10 | $346,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.10 | $346,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.