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GSHD
Goosehead Insurance, Inc.NASDAQFinancialsInsurance BrokersSnapshot 2026-06-12
Intact
$36.82-0.22%
Close 2026-06-12 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, while risk is elevated and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 32% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair. Key factors to watch include any potential guidance cuts and the performance of sector bellwethers. This assessment is provisional.
as of 2026-06-12
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Financials
- Industry
- Insurance Brokers
- Market cap
- $1.38B
- Employees
- 164,000
- IPO date
- 2018-04-02
- Next earnings
- 2026-07-22
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $36.82. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfair
$38.71consensus
Range $27.00 – $66.91
vs price: -5% below
Method agreement — · 6 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$169.68consensus
Range $75.87 – $207.67
vs price: -78% below
Method agreement — · 5 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Durable premiumlow confidence
At $37 the market pays 20× p/e — above the 13× p/e peer median but in line with its own 62× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $39 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with low confidence. Analysts: $52–$90. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
20.5x
peer 12.6x · own history 61.6x
Premium
1.6x peer
0.3x its own history
Growth the price needs
-6%
our forecast 17%
Our fair value
$39.35
range $27.10 – $67.19
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is below the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fairfair12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The price implies about 6% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 17%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
neutralOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=4936).
62nd pctl · Financials
Earnings quality
robustOver the trailing year it converted 3.26x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated robust grew net income 62% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=3541).
89th pctl · Financials
Macro sensitivity
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the broad stock market, the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
neutral1 material management or governance event in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=5004).
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Bullish12 analysts, 46% Buyfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.52 → $0.51 (-0.5% / 30d). 4 raised, 6 cut, 12 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 3 maintained. 46% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 54.1% above current price.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: financials is in growth, with decelerating (~3.2 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: neutral
- Capital allocation
- neutral
- Earnings discipline
- neutral
- Margin discipline
- neutral
- Balance sheet
- weak
- Post-call reaction
- strong
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-06-12
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$288.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$651.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $6,825.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
elevatedas of 2026-06-12
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- label change · confidence_labelsmall change
Confidence changed from 'high' to 'medium'.
As of June 12, 2026, the valuation changed, moving from fair to full. Risk rose, indicating a heightened level of uncertainty. The sector backdrop remained a headwind, suggesting ongoing challenges in the market environment. The company’s earnings quality is described as robust, reflecting strong financial performance.
as of 2026-06-12
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- DownsideHigh confidenceQuartersactive 7d
Watch for total written premiums growth below 12% in Q2
Why it matters: If growth falls below 12%, it may signal weakening demand for insurance products.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Total written premiums growth reported below 12% year over year.
Disproves:Total written premiums growth remains at or above 12% year over year.
Earnings call
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for GSHD yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth dropping below 10% across major banks
- Watch for changes in FOMC interest rate policy on June 17
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like MRSH, AON, and AJG keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Financials sector momentum should keep lifting GSHD and other Financials names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If GSHD raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-04-22), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If GSHD cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-04-22), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would weigh on GSHD and other Financials names, since the sector usually outperforms when rates stay high.
- If sector bellwethers like MRSH, AON, and AJG start missing or guiding lower, the Financials tailwind helping GSHD and other Financials names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-221mo agoItem 5.02
President and Chief Operating Officer (COO) — Mark Jones, Jr.: Mark Jones, Jr. was promoted to President and COO.
Executive changepositive
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+15 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-13
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.