Gates Corporation (GTES)
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-09-04
$25.95+3.02%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · GTES
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -9.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 6.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 16.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 63 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
Why it matters: Adjusted EPS shows how profitable a company is. It shows overall company health.
Supportive ifQ2 adjusted EPS falls within the range of $1.52 to $1.68.
Worry ifQ2 adjusted EPS falls outside the range of $1.52 to $1.68.
Why it matters: Exceeding this target shows strong cash flow. It also shows good financial health.
Supportive ifFree cash flow conversion reported above 90%.
Worry ifFree cash flow conversion reported below 85%.
Why it matters: Keeping this capex level shows smart spending. It also helps growth plans.
Watch forCapital spending is at or close to $120 million.
Also watch forCapital spending is much less than $120 million.
Why it matters: If growth is higher, it shows strong demand. It also shows management can take advantage.
Supportive ifQ3 core sales growth reported above 4.5%.
Worry ifQ3 core sales growth reported below 2.5%.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$138 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $408 loss on $10,000 · 4.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,499 loss on $10,000 · 25.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The industrial sector is maturing. If revenue growth picks up, it could signal a positive shift for Gates Corporation.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth is speeding up again. It is close to 10% year over year.
Worry ifSector revenue growth continues to decline or stays below 8% year over year.
Why it matters: A net income margin below 6% shows profit problems and may worry investors.
Worry ifNet income margin reported below 6% for Q2.
Less concerning ifNet income margin reported above 6% for Q2.
Why it matters: A higher adjusted EBITDA margin means better cost control and more profit.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA margin is over 22.5% in Q3 2026.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA margin falls or stays below 22.5%.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show how well Gates Corporation is performing this year. Investors will look for growth signals.
Watch forQ2 earnings show revenue growth above 8% year over year.
Also watch forQ2 earnings report revenue growth below 8% year over year.
Why it matters: Following CAPEX guidance shows a focus on growth and investment.
Supportive ifQ2 capital spending matches the $120 million guidance.
Worry ifQ2 capital spending is much lower than $120 million.
Why it matters: Share buybacks may show trust in the company’s financial health.
Supportive ifThere was an announcement of a share buyback program in Q2.
Worry ifNo share buybacks were announced. Buyback activity went down.
Why it matters: Earnings below this level show profits may decline. This raises worries about meeting EPS guidance.
Worry ifQ2 earnings per share reported below $0.23.
Less concerning ifQ2 earnings per share reported above $0.23.
Why it matters: A drop in net income shows weaker financial health. This can worry investors.
Worry ifNet income reported below $50 million for Q2 2026.
Less concerning ifNet income reported above $60 million for Q2 2026.