Gates Corporation (GTES)
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-11-04
$23.56-3.68%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · GTES
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -12.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 6.3% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 18.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 39 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
Why it matters: Gates kept its 90%+ goal, while nine-month operating cash flow trailed last year. The year-end report will test this cash goal.
Worry ifGates reports 2026 free cash flow conversion below 90%.
Less concerning ifGates reports 2026 free cash flow conversion at or above 90%.
Why it matters: Gates raised its adjusted EPS range in Q3. A result within that range would show it met its latest profit plan.
Supportive ifFull-year 2026 adjusted EPS is $1.66 to $1.72.
Worry ifFull-year adjusted EPS falls below $1.66, or Gates cuts the range before year-end.
Why it matters: The full-year core sales range is 3.2% to 3.8%. A weak Q4 could put that goal at risk as industrial growth slows.
Worry ifFull-year 2026 core sales growth is below 3.2%.
Less concerning ifFull-year 2026 core sales growth is 3.2% or higher.
Why it matters: The CEO cited capital deployment options, and cash was $830.8 million at Q3 end. A named plan would show how Gates may use that cash.
Supportive ifGates names an amount for a share buyback, debt payment, or investment plan.
Worry ifThe next company update gives no clear capital plan. It reports cash below $800 million.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$132 on $10,000 · ±1.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $408 loss on $10,000 · 4.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,499 loss on $10,000 · 25.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.