Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Fractyl Health Inc (GUTS)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
$0.90-7.89%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for GUTS yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain cash runway into early 2027 | Fractyl Health aims to maintain cash through early 2027, securing operations. | Intact | cash runway falls short of early 2027 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 11, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a speculative, early-stage healthcare business rather than an established compounder. Its multi-year view depends mainly on advancing Revita and managing cash, while recent performance is below its industry cohort and the thesis state is watch.
The available valuation model indicates GUTS is expensive versus peers, with a roughly 61% premium, but confidence in that estimate is low. The premium appears tied to Revita's potential, while the evidence does not show that successful submission, commercialization, or cash-burn reduction is already assured.
Near term, operating losses and execution risk remain central: recent quarterly operating losses were about $19 million and $21 million, and the announced workforce reduction has not yet shown a full-quarter effect. October's REMAIN-1 results showed 80% of GLP-1-induced weight loss retained at six months versus 67% for sham, but the De Novo submission and commercialization are still planned; the cash-runway extension and lower burn are also plans awaiting proof.
The multi-year thesis hinges on Revita progressing from clinical results toward FDA submission and commercialization, and on management delivering the planned reduction in cash burn. Near term, a guidance cut or further weakening in jobs data could add pressure, while continued strong results and guidance from healthcare bellwethers could support sector momentum.
For the next 1 to 3 years, GUTS is a fragile, execution-dependent thesis with promising clinical evidence but ongoing losses, high risk, and unproven restructuring plans. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| It targets key clinical milestones for its Revita and Rejuva therapies. |
| Improving |
| failure to meet key clinical milestones in 2026 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Address Nasdaq listing compliance | A supporting condition in Fractyl Health Inc's published investment case. The stated target is Resolve Nasdaq compliance issues to maintain listing. | Under Pressure | failure to resolve Nasdaq compliance leading to delisting | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.47 → $-5.79 · observed estimates
$0.02B → $0.02B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-0.47 | $17,900,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-0.47 | $17,900,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-0.47 | $17,900,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.47 | $17,900,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-0.48 | $22,375,000 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.50 | $22,375,000 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.50 | $22,375,000 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-0.50 | $22,375,000 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.47 | $17,900,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-0.50 | $22,375,000 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-0.47 | $17,900,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-0.50 | $22,375,000 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-0.50 | $22,375,000 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.50 | $22,375,000 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-0.47 | $17,900,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-0.50 | $22,375,000 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-0.50 | $22,375,000 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-0.50 | $22,375,000 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.47 | $17,900,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.49 | $22,375,000 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.47 | $17,900,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.47 | $17,900,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.47 | $17,900,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.47 | $17,900,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.47 | $17,900,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.47 | $17,900,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.41 | $17,900,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.41 | $17,900,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.41 | $17,900,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.41 | $17,900,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.41 | $17,900,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.41 | $17,900,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.41 | $17,900,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.41 | $17,900,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.41 | $17,900,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.41 | $17,900,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.41 | $17,900,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.41 | $17,900,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.41 | $17,900,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.41 | $17,900,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.41 | $17,900,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.41 | $17,900,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.41 | $17,900,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.41 | $17,900,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.41 | $17,900,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.41 | $17,900,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.41 | $17,900,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.41 | $17,900,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.41 | $17,900,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.41 | $17,900,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.41 | $17,900,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.41 | $17,900,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.41 | $17,900,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.41 | $17,900,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.41 | $17,900,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.41 | $17,900,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.41 | $17,900,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.41 | $17,900,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.41 | $17,900,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.41 | $17,900,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.41 | $17,900,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.41 | $17,900,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.41 | $17,900,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.41 | $17,900,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.41 | $17,900,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.41 | $17,900,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.41 | $17,900,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.41 | $17,900,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.41 | $17,900,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.41 | $17,900,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.41 | $17,900,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.41 | $17,900,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.39 | $17,900,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.39 | $17,900,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-4.76 | $17,900,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-4.76 | $17,900,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-4.76 | $17,900,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-4.76 | $17,900,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-4.76 | $17,900,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-4.76 | $17,900,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-4.76 | $17,900,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-4.76 | $17,900,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-4.23 | $17,900,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-5.90 | $17,900,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-5.90 | $17,900,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-5.92 | $17,900,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-5.92 | $17,900,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-5.55 | $17,900,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-5.69 | $15,320,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-5.69 | $15,320,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-5.69 | $15,320,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-5.69 | $15,320,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-5.82 | $19,150,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-5.82 | $19,150,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-5.82 | $19,150,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-5.79 | $19,150,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-5.79 | $19,150,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-5.79 | $19,150,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-5.79 | $19,150,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-5.79 | $19,150,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-5.79 | $19,150,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-5.79 | $19,150,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-5.79 | $19,150,000 | 3 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 6 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 2 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.