Granite Construction, Inc. (GVA)
NYSEIndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-11-04
$132.39-0.69%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · GVA
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance recently climbed back into the top half of its industry — confirming the recovery.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -10.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 11.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 21.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 12 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
GVA — litigation filed
Dated 2026-08-04
of this Current Report on Form 8-K is incorporated herein by reference. Forward-Looking Statements Any statements contained in this Current Report on Form 8-K that are not based on historical facts, including statements about the settlement of the Unwind Agreements and the use of proceeds therefrom constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements are identified by words such as “expects,” “estima…
Why it matters: CAP tracks work Granite has won and expects to record as revenue. A larger backlog can support future growth.
Supportive ifReported CAP in the next results is at least $7.5 billion, up from the September 30, 2026 record.
Worry ifReported CAP falls below $7.5 billion in the next results.
Why it matters: Granite raised its revenue range after strong growth. Reaching $5.4 billion would support its growth plan.
Supportive ifFull-year 2026 revenue is at least $5.4 billion, within or above the updated $5.4 billion to $5.5 billion range.
Worry ifFull-year 2026 revenue is below $5.4 billion, the low end of the updated range.
Why it matters: Granite said $569 million of federal backlog work should be mostly done by Q2 2028. Timely progress would support its federal growth plan.
Supportive ifGranite reports that the $569 million CBP projects are mostly complete by the end of Q2 2028.
Worry ifGranite reports a delay, reduced scope, or less than half of the $569 million work complete by the end of Q2 2028.
Why it matters: Materials revenue grew, but Q3 gross margin fell to 21.0% from 25.2%. A recovery would ease concern about costs.
Supportive ifMaterials gross profit as a share of revenue rises above 21% in a later quarter.
Worry ifMaterials gross profit as a share of revenue stays at or below 21% for two straight quarters.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$159 on $10,000 · ±1.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $299 loss on $10,000 · 3.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,358 loss on $10,000 · 33.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.