Granite Construction, Inc. (GVA)
NYSEIndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-09-04
$119.30-0.15%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · GVA
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -37.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 14.0% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 51.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 32 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
GVA — litigation filed
Dated 2026-08-04
of this Current Report on Form 8-K is incorporated herein by reference. Forward-Looking Statements Any statements contained in this Current Report on Form 8-K that are not based on historical facts, including statements about the settlement of the Unwind Agreements and the use of proceeds therefrom constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements are identified by words such as “expects,” “estima…
Why it matters: A higher CAP shows strong future revenue and project success.
Supportive ifCAP reported above $7.5 billion in the next quarterly update.
Worry ifCAP reported below $7.2 billion in the next quarterly update.
Why it matters: The outcome of the litigation could impact financial results and investor confidence. It is a risk factor for the company.
Worry ifLawsuits lead to a good result for Granite, lowering financial risks.
Less concerning ifLawsuits lead to a big financial penalty or loss for Granite.
Why it matters: The adjusted EBITDA margin shows how well the company works and makes money. It helps check financial health.
Watch forAdjusted EBITDA margin rises to over 13.25% in Q3.
Also watch forAdjusted EBITDA margin falls below 12.25% in Q3.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows that the company cares about its shareholders. If they cut it, that could mean bigger money problems.
Worry ifGranite maintains the dividend at $0.13 per share for the next quarter.
Less concerning ifGranite cuts the dividend below $0.13 per share in the next announcement.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$161 on $10,000 · ±1.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $279 loss on $10,000 · 2.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,829 loss on $10,000 · 28.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The completion will show Granite's ability to manage its debt and finance growth. It is key for funding operations and redeeming older notes.
Watch forThe offering closes on June 2, 2026, and funds are used as planned.
Also watch forThe offering fails to close or proceeds are not used for intended purposes.
Why it matters: Keeping SG&A expenses under 8.75% shows good cost control and helps profit.
Supportive ifSG&A expenses as a percent of revenue are below 8.75%. This shows good cost management.
Worry ifSG&A expenses are over 8.75% of revenue. This suggests rising operational costs.
Why it matters: Better margins mean lower costs and better operations. This is important for making money.
Supportive ifGross profit margin improves from 13.3% in Q1 2026.
Worry ifGross profit margin goes down or stays the same. This shows there are operational issues.
Why it matters: High conversion rates can greatly affect cash flow and capital structure.
Supportive ifA majority of holders convert their 2028 Notes by the August 6, 2026 deadline.
Worry ifFewer than 50% of holders convert their 2028 Notes by the deadline.
Why it matters: Revenue growth above 25% shows strong demand and good market execution.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue growth is over 25% year-over-year. This shows strong market performance.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth is below 25% year-over-year. This shows possible market weakness.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if Granite can sustain growth and profitability trends.
Watch forQ2 revenue is over $1 billion. This shows strong growth.
Also watch forQ2 revenue falls below $900 million, suggesting a slowdown in growth.
Why it matters: Redeeming the 2028 convertible notes will help Granite's capital structure. It shows how well the company handles its debt.
Supportive ifGranite pays off the 2028 convertible notes without spending much cash.
Worry ifGranite does not redeem the 2028 convertible notes as planned. This shows possible liquidity issues.
Why it matters: New guidance will show how well Granite is handling growth despite challenges.
Watch forGranite raises its fiscal year 2026 revenue guidance above the current range of $5.2 to $5.4 billion.
Also watch forGranite lowers its fiscal year 2026 revenue guidance below the current range.
Why it matters: The higher revenue guidance shows strong demand and growth. It shows management's faith in future results.
Supportive ifManagement confirms Q3 revenue guidance remains in the range of $5.3 billion to $5.5 billion.
Worry ifManagement revises Q3 revenue guidance down from the current range.
Why it matters: Finishing this offering helps the capital structure and pays off debt. This is key for financial health.
Supportive ifGranite will finish the $600 million senior notes offering by June 2, 2026.
Worry ifThe offering is delayed or fails to close as expected.