Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
ESS Tech Inc (GWH)
NYSEIndustrialsElectrical Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$0.05-18.46%
Close 2026-11-03 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsElectrical Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for GWH yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
address NYSE delisting risk | The company aims to resolve NYSE delisting risks. | Under Pressure | NYSE delisting proceedings commence or listing not regained by end 2026 | Delisting proceedings commenced Oct 2, 2026 NYSE notified ESS Tech on Oct 2, 2026, that delisting proceedings commenced and trading was suspended immediately. Nov 3, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in a supplied disclosure. Management reported: “The Company currently intends to request review of NYSE Regulation’s determination by a Committee of the Board of Directors of the NYSE by submitting a written request within ten business days of receiving the notice as permitted pursuant to NYSE procedures.” “Our focus remains on the pursuit of all strategic transaction opportunities on an expedited basis that would address the market capitalization issues and enable continuation of the listed company,” said Drew Buckley, Chief Executive Officer of ESS.” |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 12, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a speculative growth and turnaround case, not an established compounder. The thesis is on watch: commercialization and cost-control efforts are active, but progress is mixed and recent financial performance is weak.
The valuation model shows GWH at a premium to peers, while the expectations gap is elevated and the priced-in tag is unjustified. In plain terms, the valuation appears demanding relative to peers even though the evidence does not support those expectations; confidence in this assessment is medium.
Near term, earnings risk is elevated, with repeated recent misses and weaker performance than the industry cohort. Sodium-ion development and the Bridge system remain early, with low and declining quarterly revenue; expense reduction has also been uneven. Recent delisting-rule notices and higher market risk add to the near-term strain.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis hinges on whether commercialization gains traction, costs stay controlled, and management provides steadier execution. The proposed business combination remains uncompleted, and the next guidance update is a key risk. Strong or weak results and guidance from sector bellwethers could also change the sector backdrop.
For the 1-to-3-year view, GWH remains a high-risk watch case where early product development has yet to translate into meaningful revenue, while execution, listing-rule, and sector risks remain material. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
reduce operating losses | ESS Tech is cutting its operating losses from $23.5M to $13.8M, showing progress. | Intact | operating losses worsen beyond -$13.8M in 2026-Q1 | Operating income: $-15.134M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: operating losses <= -$13.8M in 2026-Q1. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 11, 2026-15,134,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
achieve revenue growth | A primary condition in ESS Tech Inc's published investment case. The stated target is >=$55M revenue in 2025 (new target). | Broken | revenue fails to reach $55M in FY25 | Revenue: $73,000 FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=$55M revenue in 2025 (new target). Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 11, 202673,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.79 → $-0.35 · observed estimates
$0.03B → $0.06B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-0.79 | $30,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-0.79 | $30,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-0.79 | $30,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.79 | $30,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-0.79 | $30,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.79 | $30,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.79 | $30,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-0.79 | $30,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.79 | $30,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-0.79 | $30,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-0.79 | $30,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-0.79 | $30,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-0.79 | $30,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.79 | $30,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-0.79 | $30,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-0.79 | $30,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-0.79 | $30,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-0.79 | $30,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.79 | $30,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.79 | $30,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.79 | $30,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.79 | $30,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.79 | $30,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.79 | $30,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.79 | $30,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.79 | $30,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.66 | $44,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.66 | $44,300,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.66 | $44,300,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.66 | $44,300,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.66 | $44,300,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.35 | $58,600,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.35 | $58,600,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.35 | $58,600,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.35 | $58,600,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.35 | $58,600,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.35 | $58,600,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.35 | $58,600,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.35 | $58,600,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.35 | $58,600,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.35 | $58,600,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.35 | $58,600,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.35 | $58,600,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.35 | $58,600,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.35 | $58,600,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.35 | $58,600,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.35 | $58,600,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.35 | $58,600,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.35 | $58,600,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.35 | $58,600,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.35 | $58,600,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.35 | $58,600,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.35 | $58,600,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.35 | $58,600,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.35 | $58,600,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.35 | $58,600,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.35 | $58,600,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.35 | $58,600,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.35 | $58,600,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.35 | $58,600,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.35 | $58,600,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.35 | $58,600,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.35 | $58,600,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.35 | $58,600,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.35 | $58,600,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.35 | $58,600,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.35 | $58,600,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.35 | $58,600,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.35 | $58,600,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.35 | $58,600,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.35 | $58,600,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.35 | $58,600,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.35 | $58,600,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.35 | $58,600,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.35 | $58,600,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.35 | $58,600,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.35 | $58,600,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.35 | $58,600,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.35 | $58,600,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.35 | $58,600,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.35 | $58,600,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.35 | $58,600,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.35 | $58,600,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.35 | $58,600,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.35 | $58,600,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.35 | $58,600,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.35 | $58,600,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.35 | $58,600,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.35 | $58,600,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.35 | $58,600,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.35 | $58,600,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.35 | $58,600,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.35 | $58,600,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.35 | $58,600,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.35 | $58,600,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.35 | $58,600,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.35 | $58,600,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.35 | $58,600,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.35 | $58,600,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.35 | $58,600,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.35 | $58,600,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.35 | $58,600,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.35 | $58,600,000 | 1 / 2 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.