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GWRE
Guidewire SoftwareNYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-06-12
Intact
$122.56+3.41%
Close 2026-06-12 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong, but risk is elevated. Earnings quality is neutral, and the sector backdrop is a tailwind, with GWRE compared to sector peers being above typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 83% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified, as it is rich on today's multiple, but the three-year horizon reads cheaper once expected earnings growth is included. Key factors to watch include guidance changes and sector trends, particularly how major players like SAP and CRM perform. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-12
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Information Technology
- Industry
- Software - Application
- Market cap
- $10.37B
- Employees
- 3,772
- IPO date
- 2011-09-02
- Next earnings
- 2026-09-03
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $122.56. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryexpensive
$67.47consensus
Range $46.29 – $75.26
vs price: +82% above
Method agreement — · 7 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearfair
$140.42consensus
Range $121.51 – $287.04
vs price: -13% below
Method agreement — · 4 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Durable premiumlow confidence
At $123 the market pays 38× p/e — above the 21× p/e peer median but in line with its own 112× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $67 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with low confidence. Analysts: $175–$250. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
38.4x
peer 21.2x · own history 112.3x
Premium
1.8x peer
0.3x its own history
Growth the price needs
82%
our forecast 20%
Our fair value
$67.47
range $46.76 – $75.26
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is below the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
expensiveexpensive — growth-justified12-month view
What's priced inUnjustified
The market is pricing in roughly 82% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 20%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Elevated fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Flags: expensive valuation, a turbulent sector regime (Heating).
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
strongOperating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated strong grew net income 73% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2777).
80th pctl · Information Technology
Earnings quality
neutralOver the trailing year it converted 2.19x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 62% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2831).
67th pctl · Information Technology
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Bullish7 PT revisions / 30d, avg 42.8% above currentfor period ending 2026-07-31
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.95 → $0.94 (-1.3% / 30d). 11 raised, 3 cut, 14 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 10 maintained. 88% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
7 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 42.8% above current price.
Material events
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: information technology is in (~1.0 years in phase).
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: neutral
- Capital allocation
- neutral
- Earnings discipline
- neutral
- Margin discipline
- neutral
- Balance sheet
- neutral
- Post-call reaction
- neutral
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-06-12
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$238.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$522.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $5,548.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
elevatedas of 2026-06-12
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideHigh confidenceMonthsactive 7d
Watch for an increase in fiscal year revenue outlook
Why it matters: A raised revenue outlook would show strong business growth and investor confidence.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Management says they expect more revenue this fiscal year during an earnings call.
Disproves:Management keeps or lowers their revenue outlook for the fiscal year.
Management priorities
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for GWRE yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth in Information Technology to fall below the median.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for GWRE and other Tech names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
- If sector bellwethers like SAP, CRM, and NOW keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Tech sector momentum should keep lifting GWRE and other Tech names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
Downside triggers
- If GWRE reverses and cuts guidance after recently raising (RAISED as of 2026-06-04), that's the worst kind of move: a credibility hit on top of the lower number. Stocks usually get punished disproportionately for this.
- If sector bellwethers like SAP, CRM, and NOW start missing or guiding lower, the Tech tailwind helping GWRE and other Tech names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.6% (say, below 2%), it hits GWRE and other Tech names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-06-049d agoItem 2.02
and shall not be deemed “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liability of that section, nor shall such information be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, regardless of the general incorporation language of such filing, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing.
Earnings preannouncement—
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
-2.6 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-13
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.