Guidewire Software (GWRE)
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
$162.42-19.93%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · GWRE
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 45.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 18.9% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 26.2 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 119 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
GWRE — CFO transition
Dated 2026-09-03
Chief Accounting Officer — David Peterson: The departure is a planned retirement of the principal accounting officer with a named successor (the CFO) expected to assume the duties, indicating an orderly succession rather than a sudden loss.
Why it matters: Updates on the share buyback program show management's trust in the stock and finances.
Supportive ifThere is news of more share buybacks beyond the current $240.5 million.
Worry ifNo updates or a pause in the share repurchase program.
Why it matters: A drop in sector revenue growth may show wider market issues for Guidewire.
Worry ifSector revenue growth falls below its median for the first time in a year.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth remains above its median.
Why it matters: This revenue range shows how strong Guidewire's cloud platform is and customer demand.
Supportive ifSubscription and support revenue reported at least $265 million.
Worry ifSubscription and support revenue was less than $259 million.
Why it matters: His background in AI and digital change may impact Guidewire's product plans.
Watch forLook for changes in product strategy or AI projects after his appointment.
Also watch forThere are no clear changes in strategy or product plans after his appointment.
Why it matters: This range shows good cost management. It also shows operational efficiency, which is key for growth.
Supportive ifGAAP operating income is between $36 million and $46 million.
Worry ifGAAP operating income is less than $36 million.
Why it matters: A raised revenue outlook would show strong business growth and investor confidence.
Supportive ifManagement says they expect more revenue this fiscal year during an earnings call.
Worry ifManagement keeps or lowers their revenue outlook for the fiscal year.
Why it matters: Ongoing buybacks can signal management's confidence in the stock. It also helps support share prices.
Supportive ifGuidewire finished buying back more shares. This was part of the $500 million program.
Worry ifNo more share buybacks are planned under the $500 million program.
Why it matters: This range confirms management's confidence in growth momentum and sets the tone for fiscal 2026.
Supportive ifQ4 total revenue reported within the range of $396 million to $406 million.
Worry ifQ4 total revenue falls below $396 million.
Why it matters: This range shows if Guidewire maintains its strong growth momentum. Consistent ARR growth is key for future revenue stability.
Supportive ifARR growth lands at or above $1,259 million.
Worry ifARR growth falls below $1,253 million.
Why it matters: This revenue range will indicate if Guidewire can sustain its growth trend. Meeting this target signals strong demand.
Supportive ifTotal revenue meets or exceeds $378 million.
Worry ifTotal revenue falls below $372 million.
Why it matters: Higher cash flow guidance shows better financial health. It shows strong operations and cash flow.
Supportive ifOperating cash flow guidance is over $465 million.
Worry ifOperating cash flow guidance stays below $445 million.
Why it matters: Finishing the $500 million share repurchase program shows a commitment to shareholders. It can help the stock price.
Supportive ifThe company finishes the $500 million share buyback program.
Worry ifThe company does not complete the share repurchase program by fiscal year-end.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$251 on $10,000 · ±2.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $585 loss on $10,000 · 5.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,079 loss on $10,000 · 60.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.