Guidewire Software (GWRE)
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-05
$167.35-1.92%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · GWRE
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 2.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 18.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 15.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 61 industry peers
GWRE — credit agreement
Dated 2026-10-27
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Acquisition Agreement On October 27, 2026, Guidewire Software, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into an agreement for the sale and purchase of Hyperexponential Ltd (“hyperexponential”) with the shareholders of hyperexponential (the “Acquisition Agreement”), pursuant to which the Company agreed to acquire all of the issued share capital of hyperexponential (the “Acquisition”) for a base purchase price of $1.7 billion in cash, subject to adjustments, incl…
Why it matters: The $1.7 billion cash deal is a major use of cash and new debt. Closing would add an AI underwriting product to Guidewire's platform.
Watch forGuidewire reports that the deal closed in fiscal Q2 2027, with the stated $1.7 billion base price and loan funding in place.
Also watch forGuidewire reports that the deal is delayed, fails to close, or needs materially different funding.
Why it matters: Guidewire set FY2027 ending ARR at $1,450 million to $1,460 million. The new deal adds to that goal, but debt and cash needs also rise.
Watch forOn December 2, Guidewire keeps or raises its FY2027 ending ARR outlook of $1,450 million to $1,460 million. It also states the deal's impact.
Also watch forOn December 2, Guidewire lowers its FY2027 ending ARR outlook below $1,450 million. Or it delays the stated deal contribution.
Why it matters: The deal adds $1.0 billion in planned term loans and uses cash on hand. Cash flow near or above guidance would show cash generation against those funding needs.
Watch forGuidewire reports FY2027 operating cash flow of at least $445 million. This meets or exceeds its $445 million to $465 million outlook.
Also watch forGuidewire reports FY2027 operating cash flow below $445 million. Or it lowers its outlook below that level.
Why it matters: ARR rose 19% in FY2026, and management named ARR growth as a key focus. The sector remains in a growth phase, though its trend is easing.
Worry ifGuidewire reports FY2027 ARR growth of at least 19% on a comparable basis, matching or topping its FY2026 rate.
Less concerning ifGuidewire reports FY2027 ARR growth below 19% on a comparable basis. Or it lowers its ending ARR outlook below $1,450 million.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$191 on $10,000 · ±1.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $654 loss on $10,000 · 6.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,385 loss on $10,000 · 53.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Guidewire says hyperexponential will add at least 650 basis points to FY2027 ARR growth. Later, it says the deal will add at least 150 basis points to organic ARR growth.
Supportive ifGuidewire reports at least 650 basis points of added FY2027 ARR growth from hyperexponential. From FY2028, it reports at least 150 basis points of added organic ARR growth.
Worry ifGuidewire reports less than 650 basis points of FY2027 ARR growth from the deal, or less than 150 basis points of added organic growth from FY2028.