Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-07-31 · fmp
Guidewire Software (GWRE)
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-05
$167.35-1.92%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
5.34 → 5.31 EPS · FY ending Jul 31, 2028 · 10 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 10 to 10; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for GWRE yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Free cash flow near $365M-$380M | Free cash flow guidance also improved to $365M-$380M. | Intact | free cash flow falls below $360M in fiscal Q2 2026 | Free cash flow: $276.7M FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: >= $365M free cash flow. The stored target says 2026-Q2; this source reports FY2026-Q4. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Sep 11, 2026276,700,000 USD · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-07-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a growth-oriented software business, with momentum supported by insurance platform expansion and recurring revenue. The long-term thesis is intact, but confidence is medium because execution quality is fragile and overall risk is high.
GWRE is expensive versus peers, trading at a 1.66 premium in the supplied valuation measure. The expectations gap is slightly negative, and the priced-in assessment is that the valuation is justified, with low fragility rather than a broad stack of valuation and execution concerns.
Near-term performance has been strong: fiscal-year revenue rose 23%, ARR increased from the prior year, and operating income improved. Management is delivering on platform growth, while cash generation has mixed evidence; AI-product adoption is not quantified. Near-term miss risk is assessed as low, but peer misses, a past deep miss, and recent litigation and financial-obligation filings remain risks.
The multi-year thesis depends on continued ARR growth and expansion of the cloud platform, alongside better operating income and cash generation. A reversal of recently raised guidance would hurt management credibility, while rate cuts or stabilization among large technology peers could ease sector pressure. Evidence on AI-product adoption is still limited.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, strong recent results support the long-term thesis, but the expensive valuation leaves little room for weak execution. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Free cash flow guidance also improved to $365M-$380M. |
| Intact |
| Guidance cut or downward revision in next 2 quarters |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Operating income near $129M | Profit margins are expected to rise with operating income guidance raised. | Intact | operating income falls below $120M in fiscal Q2 2026 | Operating income: $62.319M FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: ~$129M operating income. The stored target says 2026-Q2; this source reports FY2026-Q4. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Sep 11, 202662,319,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Fiscal year revenue near $1.46B-$1.47B | A primary condition in Guidewire Software's published investment case. The stated target is >= $1.46B revenue. | Intact | revenue falls below $1.40B in fiscal Q2 2026 | Revenue: $411.088M FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: >= $1.46B revenue. The stored target says 2026-Q2; this source reports FY2026-Q4. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Sep 11, 2026411,088,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$5.11 → $5.31 · observed estimates
$1.97B → $1.99B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01 | $5.11 | $1,967,775,225 | 6 / 13 |
| 2026-08-02 | $5.11 | $1,967,775,225 | 6 / 13 |
| 2026-08-03 | $5.11 | $1,967,775,225 | 6 / 13 |
| 2026-08-04 | $5.11 | $1,967,775,225 | 6 / 13 |
| 2026-08-05 | $5.11 | $1,967,775,225 | 6 / 13 |
| 2026-08-06 | $5.11 | $1,967,775,225 | 6 / 13 |
| 2026-08-07 | $5.11 | $1,967,775,225 | 6 / 13 |
| 2026-08-08 | $5.11 | $1,967,775,225 | 6 / 13 |
| 2026-08-09 | $5.11 | $1,967,775,225 | 6 / 13 |
| 2026-08-10 | $5.11 | $1,967,775,225 | 6 / 13 |
| 2026-08-12 | $5.11 | $1,967,775,225 | 6 / 13 |
| 2026-08-13 | $5.11 | $1,967,775,225 | 6 / 13 |
| 2026-08-14 | $5.11 | $1,967,775,225 | 6 / 13 |
| 2026-08-15 | $5.11 | $1,967,775,225 | 6 / 13 |
| 2026-08-16 | $5.11 | $1,967,775,225 | 6 / 13 |
| 2026-08-17 | $5.11 | $1,967,775,225 | 6 / 13 |
| 2026-08-18 | $5.11 | $1,967,775,225 | 6 / 13 |
| 2026-08-19 | $5.11 | $1,967,775,225 | 6 / 13 |
| 2026-08-20 | $5.12 | $1,968,271,977 | 7 / 14 |
| 2026-08-21 | $5.12 | $1,968,271,977 | 7 / 14 |
| 2026-08-22 | $5.12 | $1,968,271,977 | 7 / 14 |
| 2026-08-23 | $5.12 | $1,968,271,977 | 7 / 14 |
| 2026-08-24 | $5.12 | $1,968,271,977 | 7 / 14 |
| 2026-08-25 | $5.12 | $1,968,271,977 | 7 / 14 |
| 2026-08-26 | $5.12 | $1,968,271,977 | 7 / 14 |
| 2026-08-27 | $5.12 | $1,968,271,977 | 7 / 14 |
| 2026-08-28 | $5.12 | $1,968,271,977 | 7 / 14 |
| 2026-08-29 | $5.12 | $1,967,587,361 | 7 / 14 |
| 2026-08-30 | $5.12 | $1,967,587,361 | 7 / 14 |
| 2026-08-31 | $5.12 | $1,967,587,361 | 7 / 14 |
| 2026-09-01 | $5.12 | $1,967,587,361 | 7 / 14 |
| 2026-09-02 | $5.12 | $1,967,587,361 | 7 / 14 |
| 2026-09-03 | $5.12 | $1,967,587,361 | 7 / 14 |
| 2026-09-04 | $5.25 | $1,975,301,224 | 7 / 14 |
| 2026-09-05 | $5.33 | $1,987,698,782 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-09-06 | $5.33 | $1,987,698,782 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-09-07 | $5.33 | $1,987,698,782 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-09-08 | $5.33 | $1,987,698,782 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-09-09 | $5.33 | $1,987,698,782 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-09-10 | $5.34 | $1,989,162,515 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-09-11 | $5.34 | $1,989,162,515 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-09-12 | $5.34 | $1,989,162,515 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-09-13 | $5.34 | $1,989,162,515 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-09-14 | $5.34 | $1,989,162,515 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-09-15 | $5.34 | $1,989,162,515 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-09-16 | $5.34 | $1,989,162,515 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-09-17 | $5.34 | $1,989,162,515 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-09-18 | $5.34 | $1,989,162,515 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-09-19 | $5.34 | $1,989,162,515 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-09-20 | $5.34 | $1,989,162,515 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-09-21 | $5.34 | $1,989,162,515 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-09-22 | $5.34 | $1,989,162,515 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-09-23 | $5.34 | $1,989,162,515 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-09-24 | $5.34 | $1,989,162,515 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-09-25 | $5.34 | $1,989,162,515 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-09-26 | $5.34 | $1,989,162,515 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-09-27 | $5.34 | $1,989,162,515 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-09-28 | $5.34 | $1,989,162,515 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-09-29 | $5.34 | $1,989,162,515 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-09-30 | $5.34 | $1,989,162,515 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-10-01 | $5.34 | $1,989,162,515 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-10-02 | $5.34 | $1,989,162,528 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-10-03 | $5.34 | $1,989,162,528 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-10-04 | $5.34 | $1,989,162,528 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-10-05 | $5.34 | $1,989,162,528 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-10-06 | $5.34 | $1,989,162,528 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-10-07 | $5.34 | $1,989,162,528 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-10-08 | $5.34 | $1,989,162,528 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-10-09 | $5.34 | $1,989,162,528 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-10-10 | $5.34 | $1,989,162,528 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-10-11 | $5.34 | $1,989,162,528 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-10-12 | $5.34 | $1,989,162,528 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-10-13 | $5.34 | $1,989,162,528 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-10-14 | $5.34 | $1,989,162,528 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-10-15 | $5.34 | $1,989,162,528 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-10-16 | $5.34 | $1,989,162,528 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-10-17 | $5.34 | $1,989,162,528 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-10-18 | $5.34 | $1,989,162,528 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-10-19 | $5.34 | $1,989,162,528 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-10-20 | $5.34 | $1,989,162,528 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-10-21 | $5.34 | $1,989,162,962 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-10-22 | $5.34 | $1,989,162,962 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-10-23 | $5.34 | $1,989,162,962 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-10-24 | $5.34 | $1,989,162,962 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-10-25 | $5.34 | $1,989,162,962 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-10-26 | $5.34 | $1,989,162,962 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-10-27 | $5.34 | $1,989,162,962 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-10-28 | $5.34 | $1,989,162,962 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-10-29 | $5.32 | $1,987,269,795 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-10-30 | $5.32 | $1,987,269,795 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-10-31 | $5.32 | $1,987,269,795 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-11-01 | $5.31 | $1,987,678,462 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-11-02 | $5.31 | $1,987,678,462 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-11-03 | $5.31 | $1,987,678,462 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-11-04 | $5.31 | $1,987,678,462 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-11-05 | $5.31 | $1,987,678,462 | 10 / 13 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 13 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Dec 2, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.