Reading H? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track H free→Reading H? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track H free→NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryLodgingSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral. Earnings quality cannot be assessed because the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, it is below typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 186% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified. Rich on today's multiple, the three-year horizon reads cheaper once expected earnings growth is included. If H cuts guidance on the next call, that could be a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $199.36. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $199, H's earnings are too small for P/E to mean much; on sales it trades at 3× p/s (3.0× the 1× p/s peer median, and 1.0× even its own history). At a normal multiple the price implies ~180% near-term growth vs our ~8% forecast. That gap is an optionality premium a financial-multiple model can't price — our $71 fair value covers only the as-is business, low confidence. Analysts: $170–$224. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 180% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 8%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only expensive valuation — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 48% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=3804).
Over the trailing year it converted -9.59x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
2 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=646).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.91 → $0.92 (+1.0% / 30d). 7 raised, 4 cut, 19 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 7 maintained. 58% of analysts rate Buy.
7 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 9.2% above current price.
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$170.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$286.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,886.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Signal changed from 'cautious' to 'mixed'.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: This would indicate weaker demand trends and could impact Hyatt's full-year outlook.
Confirms:Q2 hotel RevPAR growth was below 2.0%.
Disproves:Q2 RevPAR growth meets or exceeds 2.0%.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for H yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Other Events. On May 28, 2026, the Company announced that its Board of Directors has authorized the repurchase of up to an additional $1.0 billion of the Company’s common stock. These repurchases may be made from time to time in the open market, in privately negotiated transactions, or otherwise, including pursuant to a Rule 10b5-1 plan or an accelerated share repurchase transaction, at prices that the Company deems appropriate and subject to market conditions, applicable law and other factor…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$170.00 – $224.00 (median $188.50) · 18 analysts · as of 2026-06-04
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
H Hyatt | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 20 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
BKNG Booking Holdings | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 74 of 100 | fair | moderate |
MAR Marriott International | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 46 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
HLT Hilton Worldwide | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 31 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
ABNB Airbnb | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 33 of 100 | full | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Hyatt has announced a share buyback program of up to $1.0 billion.
Hyatt aims to maintain its dividend per share at $0.15.
Hyatt is focused on increasing its operating income.
Why it matters: Growth in operating income shows Hyatt is making more money. This is important for investor trust.
Confirms:Operating income for Q2 is over $60 million. This shows continued growth.
Disproves:Operating income for Q2 is under $57 million. This suggests a possible slowdown.
Why it matters: Lower net income might show profit issues and hurt future growth plans.
Confirms:Net income reported below $255 million for the year.
Disproves:Net income meets or exceeds $255 million.
Why it matters: Progress on the buyback program shows confidence in cash flow.
Confirms:Hyatt announces repurchases totaling at least $500 million by the next earnings call.
Disproves:No big share buybacks are expected before the next earnings call.
Director — Paul D. Ballew: Paul D. Ballew retired as a member of the Board of Directors.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 30, 2026, Hyatt Hotels Corporation (the "Company") issued a press release announcing its results for its quarter ended March 31, 2026. The full text of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. The information in this Form 8-K and Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto shall not be deemed "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the "Exchang…