Hyatt (H)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryTravel LodgingSnapshot 2026-09-04
$165.85+0.28%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryTravel LodgingSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · H
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 9 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $166, H's earnings are too small for P/E to mean much; on sales it trades at 60× p/e (3.2× the 19× p/e peer median). At a normal multiple the price implies ~56% near-term growth vs our ~6% forecast. That gap is an optionality premium a financial-multiple model can't price — our $106 fair value covers only the as-is business, low confidence. Analysts target $182–$221. Note: our $106 fair value sits below the entire analyst range ($182–$221). Even valued only for durable growth at sustainable margins, it's worth about $169 — above today's price, so the premium reflects that growth case, not pure multiple expansion. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $202.50 | — | — | Analyst | medium |
| graham number | 12M | $48.42 | — | — | TTM | medium |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $43.86 | 10.5 | 7.83 | TTM | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $53.68 | 20.3 | 2.65 | TTM | medium |
| Peer P/E |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Below average on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
$182.00 – $221.00 (median $202.50) · 14 analysts · as of 2026-09-02
Only expensive valuation — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price you pay about 59% over what the business is worth with no growth; closing that gap needs roughly 30.0 years of the forecast growth to come through. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $8.03/sh owner earnings.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| 12M |
| $51.69 |
| 18.6 |
| 2.78 |
| TTM |
| medium |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $165.85 | 2.2 | 73.96 | TTM | medium |
| PEG | 12M | $63.28 | 22.8 | 2.78 | TTM | medium |
| residual income | 12M | $36.39 | — | — | TTM | medium |
| triangulated | 12M | $54.21 | 18.6 | 2.92 | Triangulated | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $28.34 | 20.3 | 1.40 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $18.51 | 20.3 | 0.91 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |