Hyatt (H)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryTravel LodgingSnapshot 2026-09-04
$165.85+0.28%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryTravel LodgingSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · H
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 56.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 6.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 50.5 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 6 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
H — officer change
Dated 2026-05-22
Director — Paul D. Ballew: Paul D. Ballew retired as a member of the Board of Directors and Thomas J. Pritzker did not stand for re-election, leading to a decrease in the size of the Board.
Why it matters: These changes may show new spending priorities. This can change how investors feel.
Watch forHyatt increases the dividend per share above $0.15.
Also watch forHyatt reduces or suspends the dividend payment.
Why it matters: If net income falls below this level, it may show problems and hurt investor trust.
Worry ifNet income attributable to Hyatt falls below $250 million.
Less concerning ifNet income for Hyatt is over $335 million.
Why it matters: A big buyback may show strong cash flow and management trust.
Supportive ifNews of share buybacks over $50 million in a quarter.
Worry ifNo news of big share buybacks in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Occupancy rates are vital for revenue. A drop below 50% could indicate a significant decline in demand and impact revenue.
Worry ifU.S. occupancy rates were below 50%.
Less concerning ifU.S. occupancy rates remain above 50%.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$134 on $10,000 · ±1.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $305 loss on $10,000 · 3.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,957 loss on $10,000 · 19.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Updates on the buyback program show that management trusts the company's finances. This is good news for shareholders.
Supportive ifManagement completes a big part of the $1.0 billion buyback program.
Worry ifThere are no updates or delays in the buyback program.
Why it matters: Falling below this level may show financial trouble and hurt investor trust.
Worry ifManagement cuts net income guidance to less than $250 million.
Less concerning ifNet income guidance remains at or above $250 million.
Why it matters: A downward change would show weaker demand. This could hurt investor confidence.
Worry ifManagement cuts 2026 RevPAR growth guidance to less than 2.0%.
Less concerning ifManagement keeps or raises 2026 RevPAR growth guidance to above 4.0%.
Why it matters: This metric reflects demand for all-inclusive resorts. A decline could indicate weakening demand in key markets.
Worry ifNet Package RevPAR growth drops further below -1.2% year-over-year.
Less concerning ifNet Package RevPAR growth stays the same or improves year-over-year.
Why it matters: Hyatt aims to manage capital spending. Exceeding this amount could signal financial strain.
Worry ifSpending for 2026 is over $135 million.
Less concerning ifSpending stays at or below $135 million.
Why it matters: More buybacks can show management's faith in the company. It also helps share prices.
Supportive ifHyatt announces share repurchases of more than $1 billion.
Worry ifNo major share buybacks announced or done in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Stable occupancy rates show strong demand. They also show good hotel management.
Supportive ifOccupancy rates stayed above 70% for two quarters.
Worry ifOccupancy rates fell below 65% for two quarters.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows that the company is stable. It promises to return cash to shareholders.
Supportive ifThe company declares a dividend of $0.15 per share for the next quarter.
Worry ifThe company cuts or stops the dividend.
Why it matters: Staying under this amount shows management is careful with spending.
Supportive ifManagement says capital spending will be $135 million or less.
Worry ifCapital spending will be more than $135 million.
Why it matters: A dividend increase shows the company is doing well. It also shows they care about shareholders.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of a dividend increase above $0.15 per share.
Worry ifDividend remains at $0.15 per share with no increase.
Why it matters: A growing pipeline shows strong future growth and demand for Hyatt's brands.
Supportive ifThe pipeline of contracts grows to over 151,000 rooms.
Worry ifPipeline contracts go down or stay the same.
Why it matters: Changes in the dividend may show how management views cash flow and spending.
Watch forManagement keeps the dividend at $0.15 per share.
Also watch forManagement cuts or stops the dividend.
Why it matters: Growth in operating income shows Hyatt is making more money. This is important for investor trust.
Supportive ifOperating income for Q2 is over $60 million. This shows continued growth.
Worry ifOperating income for Q2 is under $57 million. This suggests a possible slowdown.
Why it matters: Growth in the loyalty program shows customer retention. It also shows future revenue potential.
Supportive ifHyatt's loyalty program membership grew by over 10% in the next quarter.
Worry ifLoyalty program membership growth stalls or declines.
Why it matters: A big rise in share buybacks shows strong commitment and confidence in cash flow.
Supportive ifShare repurchases in Q3 exceed $100 million.
Worry ifShare repurchases in Q3 fall below $50 million.
Why it matters: World events can greatly impact travel demand and how hotels perform.
Worry ifRevPAR growth declines by more than 100 bps due to geopolitical tensions.
Less concerning ifRevPAR growth stays steady or improves despite global tensions.
Why it matters: Changes in RevPAR growth guidance show demand trends. They can affect investor confidence.
Watch forManagement raises Q3 RevPAR growth guidance to over 4.5% for all hotels.
Also watch forManagement lowers Q3 RevPAR growth guidance to below 3.5% for all hotels.