Harvard Bioscience Inc (HBIO)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Instruments & SuppliesSnapshot 2026-11-05
$8.46-1.74%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Instruments & SuppliesSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · HBIO
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -84.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 6.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 90.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 15 industry peers
HBIO — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-11
of this Current Report on Form 8-K and Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (the “Exchange Act”) or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933 or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.
Why it matters: The plant move is set to finish by early 2027. Management ties it to $3 million in added adjusted EBITDA in 2027 and $4 million from 2028.
Supportive ifThe company reports the plant move finished by the end of Q1 2027 and confirms the planned $3 million 2027 savings.
Worry ifThe move slips past Q1 2027, disrupts customer supply, or the company cuts its stated savings.
Why it matters: The company raised its full-year growth range to 3% to 5%. Results above the low end would back its recent sales momentum.
Supportive ifFull-year 2026 revenue growth is at least 3%, with growth above 5% exceeding the guidance range.
Worry ifFull-year 2026 revenue growth is below 3% or the company cuts its 3% to 5% range.
Why it matters: The company lowered its margin range to 57% to 59%, citing product and region mix. A miss would point to more pressure than its new range allows.
Worry ifFull-year 2026 adjusted gross margin is below 57%.
Less concerning ifFull-year 2026 adjusted gross margin is at least 57% and within the 57% to 59% range.
Why it matters: The Q3 range starts at $21.0 million. A result below that level would miss the company’s stated sales range.
Worry ifOn November 10, Q3 revenue is below $21.0 million.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue is at least $21.0 million and within the $21.0 million to $22.6 million range.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$124 on $10,000 · ±1.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $624 loss on $10,000 · 6.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,524 loss on $10,000 · 45.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: First-half adjusted EBITDA rose only slightly, to $2.4 million from $2.3 million. The company still guides to 6% to 10% full-year growth.
Worry ifFull-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA growth is below 6%, or the company cuts its 6% to 10% range.
Less concerning ifFull-year adjusted EBITDA growth is at least 6% and stays within or above the 6% to 10% range.