HCA Healthcare (HCA)
NYSEHealth CareMedical Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-07-07
$423.10+1.45%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 12 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $423.10. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $423 HCA trades at 15× p/e, below its 21× p/e peer median. Our $841 fair value sits well above the price. We hold it with low confidence: our number sits well above the analyst range and quality doesn't explain valuation multiples in this sub-industry, so the peer comparison is a weak guide. Analysts target $413–$535. Note: our $841 fair value sits above the entire analyst range ($413–$535). Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $522.50 | — | — | Analyst | medium |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $1816.20 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | medium |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $2114.97 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | medium |
| ddm gordon | 12M | $64.90 | — | — | TTM | medium |
| Mgmt guidance |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Around the middle on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
$413.00 – $535.00 (median $522.50) · 12 analysts · as of 2026-07-07
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| 12M |
| $651.24 |
| 21.5 |
| 30.30 |
| Mgmt |
| medium |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $126.53 | 5.8 | 57.31 | TTM | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $593.90 | 17.0 | 34.97 | TTM | medium |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $622.44 | 21.5 | 28.96 | TTM | medium |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $302.62 | 0.9 | 337.03 | TTM | medium |
| PEG | 12M | $614.10 | 21.2 | 28.96 | TTM | medium |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $410.50 | 14.2 | 28.96 | TTM | medium |
| triangulated | 12M | $654.24 | 21.5 | 30.44 | Triangulated | medium |
| Mgmt guidance | 3Y | $853.18 | 21.5 | 39.70 | Mgmt(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $903.25 | 17.0 | 53.19 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $724.04 | 21.5 | 33.69 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $332.06 | 0.9 | 369.81 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $714.35 | 21.2 | 33.69 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $477.51 | 14.2 | 33.69 | Analyst | medium |
| Mgmt guidance | 5Y | $1021.50 | 21.5 | 47.53 | Mgmt(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $1194.55 | 17.0 | 70.35 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $740.48 | 21.5 | 34.45 | Analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $339.59 | 0.9 | 378.20 | guidance | high |
| PEG | 5Y | $730.56 | 21.2 | 34.45 | Analyst | high |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $488.35 | 14.2 | 34.45 | Analyst | high |