HCA Healthcare (HCA)
NYSEHealth CareMedical - Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$405.00-1.03%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEHealth CareMedical - Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · HCA
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -24.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 3.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 27.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 26 industry peers
HCA — earnings in line
Dated 2026-07-24
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On July 24, 2026, HCA Healthcare, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing, among other matters, its results of operations for the second quarter ended June 30, 2026, the text of which is set forth as Exhibit 99.1 .
Why it matters: Confirming the new net income guidance shows good cost and revenue management in tough times.
Watch forNet income reported within the revised guidance range of $6.300 to $6.700 billion.
Also watch forNet income reported outside the revised guidance range.
Why it matters: Meeting or beating EPS guidance shows strong performance and trust in future profits.
Supportive ifQ3 diluted EPS of $7.62 or higher.
Worry ifQ3 diluted EPS falls below $7.62.
Why it matters: Changes in spending can affect growth and capacity. It shows management's plan.
Watch forCapital spending for 2026 is set between $5.0 billion and $5.5 billion.
Also watch forCapital spending is changed a lot. It is now outside the current range.
Why it matters: Changes in spending can affect growth and how well the company operates.
Watch forManagement says capital spending is steady or going up.
Also watch forManagement says it will cut capital spending.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$114 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $297 loss on $10,000 · 3.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,362 loss on $10,000 · 33.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Changes in these payments can greatly affect revenue and net income.
Watch forNew updates show Medicaid programs may bring in over $500 million.
Also watch forUpdates show a drop in Medicaid benefits to below $300 million.
Why it matters: If admissions stay the same or drop, it shows problems with payer mix and surgeries.
Worry ifSame facility admissions growth remains below 2.5% for Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifSame facility admissions growth exceeds 2.5% for Q3 2026.
Why it matters: A drop in sector revenue growth could signal broader issues affecting HCA's performance.
Worry ifSector revenue growth falls below its median for the first time.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth remains above its median.
Why it matters: Surgical volumes affect revenue and profits. A drop may show bigger problems.
Worry ifInpatient surgeries at the same facility drop more than 2.3% for two quarters.
Less concerning ifInpatient surgeries at the same facility stay steady or grow year over year.
Why it matters: Admissions trends are key to revenue growth. A decline could indicate operational or market challenges.
Worry ifSame facility admissions decline year over year in Q2 2026.
Less concerning ifSame facility admissions increase year over year in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Higher spending may show plans for growth or problems in operations.
Watch forCapital spending was over $1.5 billion in Q3.
Also watch forCapital spending was under $1.5 billion in Q3.
Why it matters: Updates on the share buyback program can show management's trust in financial health.
Supportive ifManagement plans more share buybacks over $2 billion in Q3.
Worry ifNo new share buybacks were announced. The remaining authorization drops a lot.
Why it matters: Knowing how payer mix changes affect income is key for checking financial health and strategy.
Worry ifManagement says the negative impact from payer mix changes is now below $1 billion.
Less concerning ifManagement says the negative impact from payer mix changes is now above $1 billion.
Why it matters: Changes in guidance can show how management feels. This can affect investor trust.
Watch forManagement confirms or raises 2026 guidance in the Q2 earnings call.
Also watch forManagement lowers 2026 guidance in the Q2 earnings call.
Why it matters: A higher benefit would help offset negative impacts from payer mix shifts and support income.
Supportive ifNet benefits from Medicaid programs go over $400 million in Q3.
Worry ifBenefit from Medicaid programs falls below $300 million in Q3.
Why it matters: A decline in net income could signal ongoing issues with payer mix and surgical volumes.
Worry ifNet income for Q3 2026 reported below $1.5 billion.
Less concerning ifNet income for Q3 2026 reported above $1.5 billion.
Why it matters: Keeping or increasing surgical volumes is key for making more money. It shows patient demand and efficiency.
Supportive ifInpatient surgeries at the same facility are either up or the same as last year.
Worry ifInpatient surgeries at the same facility are down more than last year.
Why it matters: Changes in revenue guidance can show shifts in business and growth.
Watch forManagement raises Q3 revenue guidance above the current range of $77.0 to $79.5 billion.
Also watch forManagement lowers Q3 revenue guidance below the current range of $77.0 to $79.5 billion.