HCA Healthcare (HCA)
NYSEHealth CareMedical - Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$507.48-0.63%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEHealth CareMedical - Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · HCA
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -10.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 3.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 13.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 12 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
HCA — capital allocation — Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balan…
Dated 2026-11-05
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information provided in
Why it matters: HCA spent $2.970 billion on share repurchases in Q3 and had $4.240 billion left. The next report will show whether it keeps using the authorization.
Watch forHCA reports another share repurchase. It says less than $4.240 billion remains authorized.
Also watch forHCA reports no share repurchases in the next quarter and keeps at least $4.240 billion unused.
Why it matters: HCA said it now sees results in the upper half of its 2026 ranges. Meeting that mark would support its updated outlook.
Supportive ifHCA reports 2026 adjusted EBITDA above $15.75 billion. This is above the midpoint of its $15.4 billion to $16.1 billion range.
Worry ifHCA reports 2026 adjusted EBITDA below $15.75 billion, or cuts its $15.4 billion to $16.1 billion range.
Why it matters: Uninsured patients cut income before taxes by about $400 million in Q3. A larger hit could pressure the 2026 outlook.
Worry ifHCA reports a Q4 impact from uninsured payers above $400 million. Or it raises its full-year exchange impact above $1.2 billion.
Less concerning ifHCA reports a Q4 impact from uninsured payers below $400 million. It keeps its full-year exchange impact at or below $1.2 billion.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$116 on $10,000 · ±1.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $301 loss on $10,000 · 3.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,362 loss on $10,000 · 33.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.