Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-03-31 · fmp
HDFC BANK LTD (HDB)
NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
$24.70+1.52%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
185.48 → 186.93 EPS · FY ending Mar 31, 2028 · 2 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 2 to 2; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for HDB yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
loan growth at or above 12% YoY | A primary condition in HDFC BANK LTD's published investment case. The stated target is >=12% YoY. | Under Pressure | loan growth falls below 8% YoY next year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-03-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a financial-sector thesis with moderate risk and a neutral sector backdrop, rather than a clearly established durable-growth or turnaround case. The thesis has been tracked for three to six months, but its state is insufficient because there is not enough recent performance history.
The evidence does not include a valuation measure or clear expectations already reflected in the market, so whether HDB looks cheap or expensive versus peers cannot be assessed. The muted recent price reaction offers little help in judging the expectations gap.
The evidence does not support a clear view of HDB’s multi-year fundamental trajectory or management execution. Near term, the estimated miss risk is low, though the snapshot flags a deep miss in its recent history and recent misses among industry peers.
A key swing factor is whether the Federal Reserve begins cutting rates from the current 3.88%, which the evidence says could weigh on financial stocks. Sector momentum also depends on whether IBN, USB, and PNC continue beating earnings and guiding higher, or instead miss and guide lower.
The 1-to-3-year view remains uncertain because HDB-specific performance and valuation evidence are thin. The main signals to watch are rate changes and results from the named financial-sector peers. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| New leadership brings experience to steer strategy. |
| Intact |
| leadership changes lead to strategic missteps or governance issues |
Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
profit growth over 10% in Q1 FY27 | Analysts expect profit growth over 10% in Q1FY27. | Under Pressure | profit growth falls below 5% in Q1 FY27 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
limited negative impact from RBI SMS order | A supporting condition in HDFC BANK LTD's published investment case. The stated target is income loss less than Rs 300 crore. | Intact | income loss exceeds Rs 300 crore due to regulatory changes | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.43 → $186.93 · observed estimates
$3704.06B → $2326.95B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.43 | $3,704,060,000,000 | 2 / 37 |
| 2026-07-25 | $190.63 | $2,418,220,897,074 | 2 / 19 |
| 2026-07-26 | $185.66 | $2,339,021,450,350 | 2 / 19 |
| 2026-07-27 | $185.66 | $2,339,021,450,350 | 2 / 19 |
| 2026-07-28 | $185.66 | $2,339,021,450,350 | 2 / 19 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.43 | $3,704,060,000,000 | 2 / 36 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.43 | $3,704,060,000,000 | 2 / 36 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.43 | $3,704,060,000,000 | 2 / 36 |
| 2026-08-01 | $185.56 | $2,339,313,241,620 | 2 / 19 |
| 2026-08-02 | $184.14 | $2,285,524,007,610 | 2 / 19 |
| 2026-08-03 | $184.14 | $2,285,524,007,610 | 2 / 19 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.43 | $3,704,060,000,000 | 2 / 36 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.43 | $3,704,060,000,000 | 2 / 36 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.43 | $3,704,060,000,000 | 2 / 36 |
| 2026-08-07 | $184.20 | $2,286,239,761,756 | 2 / 19 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.43 | $3,704,060,000,000 | 2 / 36 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.43 | $3,704,060,000,000 | 2 / 36 |
| 2026-08-10 | $184.20 | $2,286,239,761,756 | 2 / 19 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.43 | $3,704,060,000,000 | 2 / 36 |
| 2026-08-13 | $184.20 | $2,286,239,761,756 | 2 / 19 |
| 2026-08-14 | $184.20 | $2,286,239,761,756 | 2 / 19 |
| 2026-08-15 | $184.20 | $2,286,239,761,756 | 2 / 19 |
| 2026-08-16 | $184.20 | $2,286,239,761,756 | 2 / 19 |
| 2026-08-17 | $184.20 | $2,286,239,761,756 | 2 / 19 |
| 2026-08-18 | $184.20 | $2,286,239,761,756 | 2 / 19 |
| 2026-08-19 | $184.20 | $2,286,239,761,756 | 2 / 19 |
| 2026-08-20 | $184.31 | $2,285,714,058,541 | 2 / 19 |
| 2026-08-21 | $184.31 | $2,285,714,058,541 | 2 / 19 |
| 2026-08-22 | $184.08 | $2,283,606,065,946 | 2 / 19 |
| 2026-08-23 | $184.08 | $2,283,606,065,946 | 2 / 19 |
| 2026-08-24 | $184.08 | $2,283,606,065,946 | 2 / 19 |
| 2026-08-25 | $184.08 | $2,283,606,065,946 | 2 / 19 |
| 2026-08-26 | $184.15 | $2,284,076,189,041 | 2 / 19 |
| 2026-08-27 | $184.15 | $2,284,076,189,041 | 2 / 19 |
| 2026-08-28 | $184.15 | $2,284,076,189,041 | 2 / 19 |
| 2026-08-29 | $184.20 | $2,284,076,189,041 | 2 / 19 |
| 2026-08-30 | $184.20 | $2,284,076,189,041 | 2 / 19 |
| 2026-08-31 | $184.20 | $2,284,076,189,041 | 2 / 19 |
| 2026-09-01 | $184.40 | $2,285,891,602,724 | 2 / 19 |
| 2026-09-02 | $184.18 | $2,283,775,544,337 | 2 / 19 |
| 2026-09-03 | $184.18 | $2,283,775,544,337 | 2 / 19 |
| 2026-09-04 | $184.18 | $2,283,775,544,337 | 2 / 19 |
| 2026-09-05 | $184.18 | $2,283,775,544,337 | 2 / 19 |
| 2026-09-06 | $184.18 | $2,283,775,544,337 | 2 / 19 |
| 2026-09-07 | $184.18 | $2,283,775,544,337 | 2 / 19 |
| 2026-09-08 | $184.32 | $2,285,615,695,380 | 2 / 19 |
| 2026-09-09 | $184.32 | $2,285,615,695,380 | 2 / 19 |
| 2026-09-10 | $184.32 | $2,285,615,695,380 | 2 / 19 |
| 2026-09-11 | $184.32 | $2,285,615,695,380 | 2 / 19 |
| 2026-09-12 | $184.15 | $2,283,562,925,422 | 2 / 19 |
| 2026-09-13 | $184.15 | $2,283,562,925,422 | 2 / 19 |
| 2026-09-14 | $184.16 | $2,283,562,925,422 | 2 / 19 |
| 2026-09-15 | $184.13 | $2,283,360,506,811 | 2 / 19 |
| 2026-09-16 | $184.47 | $2,283,912,203,671 | 2 / 19 |
| 2026-09-17 | $184.47 | $2,283,912,203,671 | 2 / 19 |
| 2026-09-18 | $184.47 | $2,283,912,203,671 | 2 / 19 |
| 2026-09-19 | $184.47 | $2,283,912,203,671 | 2 / 19 |
| 2026-09-20 | $184.13 | $2,282,964,977,091 | 2 / 19 |
| 2026-09-21 | $185.16 | $2,295,727,350,822 | 2 / 19 |
| 2026-09-22 | $184.85 | $2,291,917,313,258 | 2 / 19 |
| 2026-09-23 | $185.19 | $2,296,047,649,577 | 2 / 19 |
| 2026-09-24 | $185.19 | $2,296,047,649,577 | 2 / 19 |
| 2026-09-25 | $185.10 | $2,294,996,494,559 | 2 / 19 |
| 2026-09-26 | $185.10 | $2,294,946,173,308 | 2 / 19 |
| 2026-09-27 | $185.10 | $2,294,946,173,308 | 2 / 19 |
| 2026-09-28 | $185.50 | $2,299,920,788,392 | 2 / 19 |
| 2026-09-29 | $185.46 | $2,299,427,456,483 | 2 / 19 |
| 2026-09-30 | $185.46 | $2,299,427,456,483 | 2 / 19 |
| 2026-10-01 | $185.51 | $2,300,913,927,505 | 2 / 19 |
| 2026-10-02 | $185.54 | $2,301,054,782,471 | 2 / 19 |
| 2026-10-03 | $185.42 | $2,299,943,230,478 | 2 / 19 |
| 2026-10-04 | $185.42 | $2,299,943,230,478 | 2 / 19 |
| 2026-10-05 | $185.48 | $2,300,633,076,674 | 2 / 19 |
| 2026-10-06 | $185.13 | $2,297,240,905,343 | 2 / 19 |
| 2026-10-07 | $185.10 | $2,297,240,905,343 | 2 / 19 |
| 2026-10-08 | $185.05 | $2,297,240,905,343 | 2 / 19 |
| 2026-10-09 | $185.05 | $2,297,240,905,343 | 2 / 19 |
| 2026-10-10 | $185.05 | $2,297,240,905,343 | 2 / 19 |
| 2026-10-11 | $184.90 | $2,298,085,961,714 | 2 / 18 |
| 2026-10-12 | $184.96 | $2,298,709,682,953 | 2 / 18 |
| 2026-10-13 | $185.03 | $2,299,663,199,289 | 2 / 18 |
| 2026-10-14 | $185.16 | $2,301,226,463,241 | 2 / 18 |
| 2026-10-15 | $185.19 | $2,300,937,672,196 | 2 / 18 |
| 2026-10-16 | $185.19 | $2,300,639,201,471 | 2 / 18 |
| 2026-10-17 | $185.19 | $2,300,639,201,471 | 2 / 18 |
| 2026-10-18 | $185.20 | $2,300,639,201,471 | 2 / 18 |
| 2026-10-19 | $185.62 | $2,306,092,933,333 | 2 / 18 |
| 2026-10-20 | $186.44 | $2,316,050,412,096 | 2 / 19 |
| 2026-10-21 | $186.43 | $2,316,055,135,731 | 2 / 19 |
| 2026-10-22 | $186.33 | $2,316,925,789,364 | 2 / 19 |
| 2026-10-23 | $186.37 | $2,317,650,534,483 | 2 / 19 |
| 2026-10-24 | $186.37 | $2,317,650,534,483 | 2 / 20 |
| 2026-10-25 | $186.37 | $2,317,650,534,483 | 2 / 20 |
| 2026-10-26 | $186.38 | $2,317,650,534,483 | 2 / 20 |
| 2026-10-27 | $186.38 | $2,317,650,534,483 | 2 / 20 |
| 2026-10-28 | $186.38 | $2,317,650,534,483 | 2 / 20 |
| 2026-10-29 | $186.40 | $2,322,098,761,687 | 2 / 20 |
| 2026-10-30 | $186.40 | $2,322,098,761,687 | 2 / 20 |
| 2026-10-31 | $186.93 | $2,326,949,060,897 | 2 / 20 |
| 2026-11-01 | $186.93 | $2,326,949,060,897 | 2 / 20 |
| 2026-11-02 | $186.93 | $2,326,949,060,897 | 2 / 20 |
| 2026-11-03 | $186.93 | $2,326,949,060,897 | 2 / 20 |
| 2026-11-04 | $186.93 | $2,326,949,060,897 | 2 / 20 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.