Reading HE? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track HE free→Reading HE? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track HE free→NYSEUtilitiesUtilities - Regulated ElectricSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and risk is moderate, while the sector backdrop is a headwind. Earnings quality is robust, indicating that cash flow supports reported profits. Peer multiples imply a price about 12% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair. The outlook hinges on guidance changes, as a cut could negatively impact estimates, while a raise could provide a momentum boost. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $13.38. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $13 HE trades at 17× p/e, below its 19× p/e peer median. Our $15 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 12% below a flat-multiple fair value, in line with our forecast of about -4%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Utilities names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1203).
Over the trailing year it converted 3.18x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Utilities names rated robust grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=832).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Not enough signal yet.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.26 → $0.28 (+9.4% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 1 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 0% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$111.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$331.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,348.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Higher expenses can hurt profits. It’s crucial to monitor cost management.
Confirms:Operations and maintenance costs rise more than 5% from last quarter.
Disproves:Costs stay the same or drop compared to last quarter.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for HE yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
of this current report on Form 8-K including HEI Exhibit 99 shall not be deemed “ filed ” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the Exchange Act), or incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing. 1 SIGNATURES Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the Registrants have duly caused this…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Electric Utilities.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
HE Hawaiian Electric Industries, Inc. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 27 of 100 | fair | moderate |
SO Southern Company | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 68 of 100 | fair | low |
DUK Duke Energy | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 82 of 100 | fair | low |
CEG Constellation Energy | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 60 of 100 | full | elevated |
AEP American Electric Power | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 43 of 100 | full | low |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLU
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Address the anticipated increase in operations and maintenance expenses for 2026.
Focus on enhancing net income results compared to previous periods.
Why it matters: If utility revenue growth speeds up, it may help Hawaiian Electric's outlook.
Confirms one read:Utility sector revenue growth exceeds 5% year over year.
Confirms the other:Utility sector revenue growth falls below 3% year over year.
Why it matters: Changes in unemployment claims can affect how much people spend and need energy. This impacts Hawaiian Electric's revenue.
Confirms one read:Unemployment claims drop a lot, showing a stronger job market.
Confirms the other:Unemployment claims are going up. This shows weakness in the economy.
Why it matters: Improving net income is a key management goal. It signals stronger financial health.
Confirms:Q2 net income increases year over year by more than 10%.
Disproves:Q2 net income declines year over year or stays flat.