Home Federal Bancorp Inc of Louisiana (HFBL)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$25.99+3.84%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · HFBL
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 11.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 12.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 1.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of —
HFBL — dividend update
Dated 2026-07-16
Regulation FD Disclosure On July 16, 2026, Home Federal Bancorp, Inc. of Louisiana (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing that the Board of Directors declared an increase in the quarterly cash dividend for the thirteenth consecutive year to $0.15 per share on July 16, 2026. The dividend is payable on August 10, 2026, to shareholders of record as of July 27, 2026. For additional information, reference is made to the Company's press release dated July 16, 2026, which is included as E…
Why it matters: Stable revenue supports consistent earnings growth. It shows the company is maintaining its performance.
Supportive ifRevenue reported at or above $8 million for the quarter.
Worry ifRevenue is less than $7.5 million. This suggests the company may be unstable.
Why it matters: More non-performing assets may show credit problems. This could hurt profits.
Worry ifAssets that are not making money are above $4 million.
Less concerning ifAssets that are not making money are still below $4 million.
Why it matters: A drop in net interest margin may mean lower profits and affect earnings.
Worry ifNet interest margin is above 3.72%. This shows good management of interest income.
Less concerning ifNet interest margin is below 3.72%. This suggests possible problems with interest income.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend at this level shows commitment to returning value to shareholders. A cut could signal financial strain.
Watch forThe company maintains the dividend at $0.15 per share.
Also watch forThe company reduces the dividend from $0.15 per share.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$50 on $10,000 · ±0.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $347 loss on $10,000 · 3.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,864 loss on $10,000 · 18.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Net income growth shows the company is making money. This helps build investor trust.
Supportive ifQ3 net income exceeds $1.5 million, showing growth from Q3 2025.
Worry ifQ3 net income is under $1.5 million. This may mean profit problems.
Why it matters: Slower loan growth could indicate weakening demand or competitive pressures. This is key for future earnings.
Worry ifTotal loans increase less than 3% year over year.
Less concerning ifTotal loans increase by 3% or more year over year.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth signals a slowdown in the financial sector. This could hurt Home Federal's performance.
Worry ifRevenue growth falls below 12% year over year.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth stays above 12% year over year.
Why it matters: A drop in net income may mean less profit. Investors will worry about the company's growth.
Worry ifQ3 net income reported below $1.4 million.
Less concerning ifQ3 net income exceeds $1.4 million.
Why it matters: Loan growth is crucial for revenue and reflects demand for credit in the market.
Supportive ifLoan growth is over 3.1%. This shows strong demand and good lending strategies.
Worry ifLoan growth is below 3.1%. This raises worries about market demand and competition.
Why it matters: Slower deposit growth may mean customers are less confident. This could hurt funding.
Worry ifTotal deposits grow by more than 5% year over year.
Less concerning ifTotal deposits grow less than 3% year over year.
Why it matters: A decline in net interest margin may show profit pressure. Investors will watch this closely.
Worry ifNet interest margin was below 3.70%.
Less concerning ifNet interest margin remains above 3.70%.
Why it matters: An increase in the provision for credit losses could signal rising risk in the loan portfolio. This affects profitability.
Worry ifQ3 provision for credit losses is less than $500,000.
Less concerning ifQ3 provision for credit losses exceeds $500,000.