HF Foods Group, Inc. (HFFG)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesFood DistributionSnapshot 2026-09-04
$1.770.00%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer StaplesFood DistributionSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · HFFG
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -59.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 5.4% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 65.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 4 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
HFFG — capital allocation — Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation
Dated 2026-09-03
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation Under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information required by
Why it matters: This acquisition is HF Foods' first move into international markets. It could increase revenue and profits.
Supportive ifThe acquisition will close in Q3 2026 as planned. There are no regulatory delays.
Worry ifThe deal may not close. It could face big delays from regulatory issues.
Why it matters: Meeting this margin target would show good cost control and better operations.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA margin reaches 4.5% or higher in Q3 2026.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA margin is below 4% in Q3 2026. This shows ongoing cost issues.
Why it matters: Improvements show that HF Foods is managing costs well. They are optimizing operations.
Supportive ifEfficiency metrics are getting better. This means lower costs compared to revenue.
Worry ifOperational efficiency metrics get worse. This means costs are rising compared to revenue.
Why it matters: Steady revenue growth shows the company is doing well with its plans.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue growth is over 3.5% compared to last year. This shows strong efficiency.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth is below 2% compared to last year. This shows possible problems.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$164 on $10,000 · ±1.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $603 loss on $10,000 · 6.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,901 loss on $10,000 · 59.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: New M&A news could signal growth strategies and market positioning.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of a specific M&A deal that aligns with growth goals.
Worry ifThere are no updates or delays in checking M&A opportunities.
Why it matters: Strong cash flow helps keep operations running and supports growth investments.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations exceeds $15 million in Q2 2026.
Worry ifCash flow from operations falls below $15 million in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Better organic growth means the company is gaining market share. It also shows better operations.
Supportive ifQ2 organic growth rate exceeds 5% year over year.
Worry ifQ2 organic growth rate stays below 2% year over year.
Why it matters: Success in these areas could improve profits and market share.
Supportive ifManagement says there are big improvements and more sales in these areas.
Worry ifSales in the Southeast and Midwest drop or stay the same despite changes.
Why it matters: If integration works well, it could increase profits and help seafood growth.
Supportive ifManagement says they see good results and better margins from Searay integration in six months.
Worry ifIf integration has problems, it may cause delays or lower margins in the next earnings call.
Why it matters: Steady organic growth means management is doing well in a tough market.
Supportive ifOrganic revenue growth is over 3% year-over-year in Q3 2026.
Worry ifOrganic revenue growth falls below 1% year-over-year in Q3 2026.