HF Foods Group, Inc. (HFFG)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesFood DistributionSnapshot 2026-11-04
$1.44-3.36%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer StaplesFood DistributionSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · HFFG
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -63.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 6.2% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 70.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 2 industry peers
HFFG — M&A activity — Termination of a Material Definitive Agreement
Dated 2026-09-18
Termination of a Material Definitive Agreement. On September 17, 2026, HF Foods Group Inc. (the “Company”) terminated the Sales Agreement among the Company, D.A. Davidson & Co. and Roth Capital Partners, LLC, dated September 25, 2025 (the “Sales Agreement”). As a result, the Company suspended and terminated the prospectus supplement, dated September 25, 2025, related to the Company’s common stock issuable pursuant to the terms of the Sales Agreement (the “ATM Prospectus”). The termination of…
Why it matters: Revenue grew 2.8% in Q2, but adjusted EBITDA fell 2.0%. Faster growth would test whether cross-selling adds sales without more pressure on earnings.
Supportive ifIn the November 9 earnings report, Q3 revenue growth is above 2.8% year over year. Adjusted EBITDA is not down year over year.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth is 2.8% or lower, or adjusted EBITDA falls year over year again.
Why it matters: Gross margin was 17.0% in Q2, down from 17.5% a year earlier. A further drop would show that tariffs and product costs still weigh on profits.
Worry ifQ3 gross margin is below 17.0%, after Q2's 17.0% result.
Less concerning ifQ3 gross margin reaches 17.0% or higher, without a tariff refund lifting the result.
Why it matters: Searay is HF Foods' first move into Canada. Sales and profit details will show how the deal is affecting the wider business.
Watch forA company filing or earnings report gives Searay's revenue and profit results. It reports no delay in bringing Searay into the business.
Also watch forA filing or earnings report says Searay's integration is late, costs have risen, or profit is below plan.
Why it matters: HF Foods completed its first Canadian deal in August. Results can show whether the new business adds sales while keeping margins near Q2's 4.2%.
Watch forQ3 results include Searay sales, and adjusted EBITDA margin is at least 4.2%.
Also watch forQ3 adjusted EBITDA margin falls below 4.2%. Or the company reports a delay in adding Searay to its results.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$128 on $10,000 · ±1.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $562 loss on $10,000 · 5.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,758 loss on $10,000 · 47.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: HF Foods reported $14.0 million in cash from operations for the first half. The Searay deal and inventory needs make the next cash report worth watching.
Watch forQ3 cash from operations is positive. Cash plus available credit does not fall below its June 30 level.
Also watch forQ3 cash from operations is negative. Or cash plus available credit falls below the June 30 level of about $57.8 million.