Reading HFWA? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track HFWA free→Reading HFWA? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track HFWA free→NASDAQHealth CareBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, and management's recent track record has been steady. Earnings quality is neutral, and risk is moderate, while the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price roughly in line with where it trades (about fair); the read is fair. The top factors to watch include the performance of sector bellwethers like UNH, JNJ, and LLY, as their earnings guidance could influence HFWA's momentum. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $29.04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $29 HFWA trades at 12× p/e, in line with its 12× p/e peer median. Our $29 fair value reflects that, high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 2% near-term growth, in line with our forecast of about 9%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated strong grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=2344).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.23x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 50% for the rest of the cohort, n=2269).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.59 → $0.54 (-8.7% / 30d). 0 raised, 5 cut, 6 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 33% of analysts rate Buy.
Divergence: fundamentals are strong but estimates are being cut. Worth reading the recent material events.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$99.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$275.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,476.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Strong net income growth would show the company is on track with its goals. This supports investor confidence.
Confirms:Q2 net income growth exceeds 10% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 net income growth is below 5% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for HFWA yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On April 23, 2026, Heritage Financial Corporation (“Heritage”) issued a press release announcing its first quarter 2026 results. A copy of the release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. The information furnished pursuant to this Item and the related exhibit is being “furnished” and will not, except to the extent required by applicable law or regulation, be deemed “filed” b…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Regional Banks.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
HFWA Heritage Financial Corporation | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 41 of 100 | fair | moderate |
HDB HDFC BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
IBN ICICI BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
ITUB ITAU UNIBANCO HOLDING SA | — | — | moderate |
FITB Fifth Third Bancorp | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 2 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
1 material management or governance event in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Health Care names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=618).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Continue to provide a consistent quarterly dividend of $0.24 per share.
Focus on enhancing net income through operational improvements.
Improve operating income through efficiency and revenue growth.
Why it matters: A slowdown in sector revenue growth could impact Heritage's performance. This is key for understanding market conditions.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth falls below 8% year over year.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth remains above 10% year over year.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows the company is stable. It also helps keep investors happy.
Confirms:They announced the quarterly dividend will stay at $0.24 per share.
Disproves:They announced a cut or suspension of the dividend.
Why it matters: The Q2 earnings will show if Heritage can maintain its revenue growth. Investors will look for signs of stability or decline.
Confirms one read:Q2 earnings report shows revenue growth above 5% year over year.
Confirms the other:Q2 earnings report shows revenue growth below 0% year over year.
Other Events On April 23, 2026, Heritage issued a press release announcing a regular quarterly cash dividend of $0.24 per common share. The dividend will be paid on May 20, 2026 to shareholders of record at the close of business on May 6, 2026. A copy of the release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference.