Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Hagerty Inc (HGTY)
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-11-04
$18.36-1.87%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.59 → 0.61 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 5 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for HGTY yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Achieve Adjusted EBITDA between $236M and $247M in FY26 | A primary condition in Hagerty Inc's published investment case. The stated target is $236M to $247M. | Intact | Adjusted EBITDA falls below $236M in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a growth-oriented insurance business, with a thesis that depends on expanding policies, partnerships, and profits. The long-term thesis is intact, while risk is now rated moderate and confidence in the evidence is medium.
Valuation is about 11% above peers, and the expectations gap is modestly positive, suggesting expectations are broadly aligned with the evidence. The snapshot labels what is priced in as justified and reports low fragility, so it does not point to unusually stretched expectations.
Near term, strong recent performance and higher 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance support the operating story, although a recent earnings miss and declining earnings surprises remain watch points. Over the multi-year view, growth in written premiums and new members supports progress toward management’s policy and partnership priorities, but the evidence is thin on the pace of that progress.
A guidance cut after the recent increase would weaken confidence in management’s execution. The thesis also depends on interest rates and broader insurance-sector results: rate cuts could weigh on Financials, while continued strong results and higher guidance from sector bellwethers would support sector momentum.
For the next 1 to 3 years, HGTY’s long-term thesis rests on converting recent operating strength and higher guidance into sustained policy and profit growth. Execution, guidance credibility, and the rate backdrop are the main tests. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in Hagerty Inc's published investment case. The stated target is $1.28B to $1.3B. |
| Intact |
| Annual revenue falls below $1.28B in FY26 |
Revenue: $354.242M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: $1.28B to $1.3B. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 3, 2026354,242,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Maintain strategic partnership with Markel Group Inc. | The company benefits from a strong partnership with Markel. | Intact | Partnership with Markel ends or materially weakens | Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.57 → $0.61 · observed estimates
$1.48B → $1.51B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.57 | $1,480,009,800 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.57 | $1,484,858,167 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.57 | $1,480,009,800 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.57 | $1,484,858,167 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.57 | $1,480,009,800 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.57 | $1,480,009,800 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.57 | $1,484,858,167 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.57 | $1,480,009,800 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.57 | $1,484,858,167 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.57 | $1,484,858,167 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.57 | $1,484,858,167 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.57 | $1,480,009,800 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.57 | $1,480,009,800 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.57 | $1,480,009,800 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.58 | $1,490,874,833 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.58 | $1,481,155,200 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.58 | $1,481,155,200 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.58 | $1,490,874,833 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.58 | $1,491,079,330 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.58 | $1,490,874,833 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.58 | $1,490,874,833 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.58 | $1,490,874,833 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.58 | $1,490,874,833 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.58 | $1,490,874,833 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.58 | $1,490,874,833 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.58 | $1,490,874,833 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.58 | $1,490,443,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.59 | $1,490,443,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.59 | $1,490,443,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.59 | $1,490,443,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.59 | $1,490,443,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.59 | $1,490,443,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.59 | $1,490,443,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.59 | $1,490,443,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.59 | $1,490,443,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.59 | $1,491,109,667 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.59 | $1,491,109,667 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.59 | $1,491,109,667 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.59 | $1,491,109,667 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.59 | $1,491,109,667 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.59 | $1,491,109,667 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.59 | $1,491,109,667 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.59 | $1,491,109,667 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.59 | $1,491,109,667 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.59 | $1,491,109,667 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.59 | $1,491,109,667 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.59 | $1,491,109,667 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.59 | $1,491,109,667 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.59 | $1,491,109,667 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.59 | $1,491,109,667 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.59 | $1,491,109,667 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.59 | $1,491,109,667 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.59 | $1,491,109,667 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.59 | $1,491,109,667 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.59 | $1,491,109,667 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.59 | $1,491,109,667 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.59 | $1,491,109,667 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.59 | $1,491,109,667 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.59 | $1,491,109,667 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.59 | $1,491,109,667 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.59 | $1,491,109,667 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.59 | $1,491,109,667 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.59 | $1,491,109,667 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.59 | $1,491,109,667 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.59 | $1,491,109,667 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.59 | $1,491,109,667 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.59 | $1,491,109,667 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.59 | $1,491,109,667 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.59 | $1,491,109,667 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.59 | $1,489,926,333 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.59 | $1,489,926,333 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.59 | $1,489,926,333 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.59 | $1,489,926,333 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.59 | $1,489,926,333 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.59 | $1,489,926,333 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.59 | $1,489,926,333 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.59 | $1,489,926,333 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.59 | $1,489,926,333 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.59 | $1,489,926,333 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.59 | $1,489,926,333 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.59 | $1,490,643,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.59 | $1,490,643,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.59 | $1,490,643,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.59 | $1,490,643,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.59 | $1,490,643,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.59 | $1,490,643,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.59 | $1,490,643,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.59 | $1,490,643,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.59 | $1,490,643,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.59 | $1,490,643,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.59 | $1,490,643,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.59 | $1,490,643,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.59 | $1,490,643,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.59 | $1,490,643,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.59 | $1,490,643,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.59 | $1,490,643,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.59 | $1,490,643,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.59 | $1,490,643,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.59 | $1,490,643,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.59 | $1,490,643,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.59 | $1,490,643,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.59 | $1,490,643,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.61 | $1,506,160,500 | 5 / 4 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 3 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.