Hagerty Inc (HGTY)
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-09-04
$13.55+0.67%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · HGTY
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance recently climbed back into the top half of its industry — confirming the recovery.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 0.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 4.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 4.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 33 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
HGTY — earnings miss
Dated 2026-05-06
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On May 6, 2026, Hagerty, Inc. (the "Company") announced its financial results for the fiscal quarter ended March 31, 2026 by issuing a letter to its stockholders and a press release. The Company will also be holding a conference call on May 6, 2026 to discuss its financial results for the three months ended March 31, 2026. The full text of the Company's letter to its stockholders and press release are attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and Exhibit 99…
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth would signal a slowdown in the financial sector. This could impact Hagerty's performance.
Worry ifRevenue growth in the financial sector is below its usual level.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth is above its usual level.
Why it matters: Higher guidance shows strong performance. It also shows confidence in future growth.
Supportive ifEBITDA guidance is now over $280 million for 2026.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA guidance stays at or below $280 million.
Why it matters: Keeping this partnership is important for Hagerty's growth. It helps with their insurance operations.
Watch forThere is an announcement about new plans or expansions with Markel.
Also watch forNews of any setbacks or changes in the partnership terms with Markel.
Why it matters: Buying Bennetts could boost Hagerty's presence in the UK. Success here helps long-term growth.
Supportive ifBennetts helps membership growth or profit within six months after the purchase.
Worry ifBennetts does not meet growth goals or hurts profits.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$119 on $10,000 · ±1.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $320 loss on $10,000 · 3.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,003 loss on $10,000 · 30.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Growth in the agency network is vital for expanding Hagerty's market share. This will show how well they are connecting with customers.
Supportive ifThe number of insurance agencies working with Hagerty grows more than 5% in 2026.
Worry ifGrowth in the agency network is less than 2% in 2026.
Why it matters: Hitting this target is key for demonstrating financial health and growth potential.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA reported at or above $236M for the full year.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA is below $236M. This raises concerns about making money.
Why it matters: The growth rate will indicate if Hagerty can maintain its target of 15-16% for the year. This is key for future profitability.
Supportive ifWritten premium growth rate exceeds 16% in Q2 2026.
Worry ifWritten premium growth rate drops below 15% in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Hagerty needs to reach this target for good financial health. It shows they can control costs and make more money.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA is over $240M in Q2. This shows strong performance in operations.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA is below $230M. This suggests they still face challenges with costs.
Why it matters: This shows a slowdown in the main insurance business. It will affect growth goals.
Worry ifQ3 written premium growth reported below 15% year over year.
Less concerning ifWritten premium growth exceeds 15% year over year.
Why it matters: New partnerships could drive growth in policies and enhance market presence.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of a new partnership with a top 10 auto insurer.
Worry ifNo new partnerships announced by the end of Q3.
Why it matters: Strong auction performance would support growth in Hagerty's marketplace and brand strength.
Supportive ifBroad Arrow reports auction sales over $150 million in one event.
Worry ifAuction sales fall below $100 million in the next major event.