Hagerty Inc (HGTY)
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-11-04
$18.71+9.86%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · HGTY
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 0.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 8.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 7.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 26 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
HGTY — earnings miss
Dated 2026-05-06
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On May 6, 2026, Hagerty, Inc. (the "Company") announced its financial results for the fiscal quarter ended March 31, 2026 by issuing a letter to its stockholders and a press release. The Company will also be holding a conference call on May 6, 2026 to discuss its financial results for the three months ended March 31, 2026. The full text of the Company's letter to its stockholders and press release are attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and Exhibit 99…
Why it matters: Premium growth is a direct test of Hagerty’s insurance expansion. Q1 management set a 15% to 16% growth goal for 2026.
Supportive ifQ3 written premiums keep 2026 growth at or above 15% year over year.
Worry ifQ3 written premiums point to 2026 growth below 15% year over year.
Why it matters: State Farm conversions are a new source of policy growth. Management set a year-end target for more than half of its policies.
Supportive ifBy year-end, more than half of State Farm’s 525,000 policies are on Hagerty’s platform.
Worry ifBy year-end, half or fewer of State Farm’s 525,000 policies are on Hagerty’s platform.
Why it matters: Management raised its 2026 profit range in Q2. Q3 results can show whether profit growth stays on track.
Supportive ifQ3 results keep the company on pace for adjusted EBITDA of $270M to $280M in 2026.
Worry ifQ3 results point to 2026 adjusted EBITDA below $270M.
Why it matters: Marketplace nearly doubled volume year over year and had sell-through near 80%. These figures test whether its auction growth continues.
Supportive ifMarketplace volume grows year over year and sell-through stays near or above 80%.
Worry ifMarketplace volume falls year over year or sell-through drops well below 80%.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$90 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $293 loss on $10,000 · 2.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,003 loss on $10,000 · 30.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.