Hilton Grand Vacations (HGV)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryTravel LodgingSnapshot 2026-11-04
$43.76+4.79%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryTravel LodgingSnapshot 2026-11-04
Research Workspace
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Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Consumer Discretionary is in steady. Describes the industry's cycle state, not a call on this stock.
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
Primary pillar under pressure — Revenue growth near 9% per year: Comparison needs review.
View ThesisRevenue growth is accelerating — up about 19% over the past year.
View GrowthRanks among the strongest in its industry on quality — around the top 20%.
View QualityMiddle-of-the-pack management execution.
View ManagementExpectations look reasonable — what the market is pricing in sits in line with or below what analysts forecast.
View ValuationModerate volatility — typically moves about 2% a day.
View RiskHGV's revenue growth has to keep compounding to justify the price. Revenue grew 7% year over year in the second quarter. The third quarter earnings beat expectations by 299%. The stock trades at 6 times earnings. Peers trade at 25 times earnings. The price reflects less growth than we forecast. The thesis comparison is not yet verified. Our model puts the next-quarter miss near 16%. Peer multiples imply a price about 66% above where it trades. The thesis is on watch. This read is provisional.
Trailing returns as of 2026-11-04. HGV is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 12 analysts currently covering HGV (as of Nov 2026).
Based on 7 Wall Street analysts offering 12-month price targets for HGV in the last 4 months.
Continue this research
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| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HGV Selected company | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Peer Add a competitor | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Holding Compare a holding | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review |
Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 10 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-11-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Compare the value case
Put HGV next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
Threatens: Improve sales execution and conversion rates
Downgrade cites sales weakness, directly challenging sales execution objective.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-11-04. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
Current $43.76
The last 12 months of price, then the range of analyst 12-month targets from today’s $43.76.
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Top 10% on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Advances: Continue returning capital to shareholders through repurchases
A $200 million accelerated repurchase advances the stated shareholder-return objective.
Advances: Continue returning capital to shareholders through repurchases
A $200 million buyback advances the stated shareholder-return objective.
Advances: Increase Adjusted EBITDA guidance
2026 Adjusted EBITDA forecast provides a concrete outlook after the guidance reset.
Threatens: Improve operating income
Sales execution issues may hinder operating income improvement.
Threatens: Increase revenue growth
Earnings miss indicates potential revenue growth issues.
Secondary offering may dilute shares and affect repurchase plans.
Common stock offering could impact share repurchase strategy.