Hartford (The) (HIG)
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - DiversifiedSnapshot 2026-09-04
$138.37-1.16%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - DiversifiedSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · HIG
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance recently climbed back into the top half of its industry — confirming the recovery.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -7.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 1.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 8.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 5 industry peers
HIG — director transition
Dated 2026-07-15
Director — Randy Larsen: Randy Larsen was elected as a director and appointed to serve on specific committees.
Why it matters: The combined ratio shows how well underwriting is doing. A lower ratio means better profits.
Supportive ifThe combined ratio is 94.8 in Q1 2026. This shows better performance in underwriting.
Worry ifThe combined ratio is 94.8 in Q1 2026. This signals possible problems in underwriting.
Why it matters: Combined ratios show how well the company is doing with underwriting. Better ratios mean more profit.
Supportive ifCombined ratios are better than Q2 2026 levels. Business Insurance was 91.4. Personal Insurance was 90.1.
Worry ifCombined ratios get worse. This shows underwriting performance is declining.
Why it matters: Core earnings growth shows how well the company makes money. It helps check financial health.
Supportive ifCore earnings in Q3 2026 exceed $945 million, showing continued growth.
Worry ifCore earnings drop below $945 million. This shows possible weakness.
Why it matters: This program signals confidence in the company's value and can boost earnings per share.
Supportive ifEarnings per share rise a lot in the next quarter because of the repurchase.
Worry ifEarnings per share remains flat or declines despite the repurchase program.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$95 on $10,000 · ±1.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $191 loss on $10,000 · 1.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,188 loss on $10,000 · 11.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: A lower combined ratio shows better performance and profits in the P&C area.
Supportive ifThe combined ratio will be below 90% in Q2 2026.
Worry ifIf the combined ratio stays above 90% in Q2 2026, it shows underwriting problems.
Why it matters: Closing this sale is important for managing money and future growth.
Supportive ifThe sale of Hartford Funds to Wellington closes as planned in Q1 2027.
Worry ifThe sale of Hartford Funds is delayed beyond Q1 2027.
Why it matters: The deal will bring Hartford Funds into Wellington. This will improve their wealth management.
Supportive ifThe deal will close in Q1 2027 as planned. This shows they are aligned strategically.
Worry ifThe acquisition faces regulatory delays or fails to close by the end of Q1 2027.
Why it matters: Slower premium growth may mean challenges in the market.
Worry ifBusiness Insurance premium growth was below 5% in Q2.
Less concerning ifBusiness Insurance premium growth was above 5% in Q2.
Why it matters: Strong cash from operations helps with plans and returns to shareholders. It shows good financial health.
Supportive ifCash from operations is over $1.045 billion. This shows strong performance.
Worry ifCash from operations is below $1.045 billion. This suggests there are challenges.
Why it matters: Core earnings growth is key for maintaining strong returns. A drop signals potential issues.
Worry ifQ3 core earnings growth falls below 1% compared to Q3 2025.
Less concerning ifQ3 core earnings growth exceeds 1% compared to Q3 2025.
Why it matters: A new share repurchase program shows confidence in financial health and supports stock price.
Supportive ifThe company announced share buybacks over $1 billion from the new $4.2 billion plan.
Worry ifNo major share buybacks are planned for the next quarter.
Why it matters: A worse combined ratio means possible problems with underwriting. This may lower profits.
Worry ifThe Q3 combined ratio is over 91.4. This shows higher losses in underwriting.
Less concerning ifThe Q3 combined ratio is below 91.4. This shows better results in underwriting.
Why it matters: Buying Hartford Funds could help make more money through better investment management.
Watch forEarnings from the combined entity exceed $1.9 billion in net present value within the first year.
Also watch forEarnings from the new company may not meet expectations, under $1.5 billion in value.