Hartford (The) (HIG)
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - DiversifiedSnapshot 2026-11-04
$137.09-0.74%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - DiversifiedSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · HIG
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -5.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 2.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 7.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 2 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
HIG — CEO transition
Dated 2026-09-30
CEO — Christopher J. Swift: The CEO is transitioning to an Executive Chair role with a named internal successor, indicating an orderly succession rather than a sudden loss of leadership.
Why it matters: The company says its strategy will stay the same during the handoff. Clear signs of continuity would support the view of an orderly change.
Supportive ifTooker becomes CEO on March 1, 2027, and the company keeps its stated strategy and business plans in place.
Worry ifThe handoff date changes, or the company announces a major strategy shift tied to the CEO change.
Why it matters: HIG bought back $475 million of shares in Q3 and has a new $4.2 billion program. Buybacks near the recent pace would show the plan is being used.
Supportive ifA later report shows share repurchases near or above $475 million for the quarter, under the program that runs through 2028.
Worry ifA later report shows a sharp drop in share repurchases, or the company pauses or cuts the program.
Why it matters: The Q3 core earnings margin fell to 6.4% from 7.4% in Q2. A return above 6.4% would ease concern about rising group disability and life losses.
Supportive ifEmployee Benefits core earnings margin rises above 6.4% in the next reported quarter.
Worry ifEmployee Benefits core earnings margin stays at or below 6.4%, or its loss ratio rises above 74.9.
Why it matters: Q3 P&C catastrophe losses rose to $198 million from $70 million a year earlier. Another high-loss quarter could pressure underwriting results.
Worry ifQ4 P&C current-year catastrophe losses exceed $198 million before tax.
Less concerning ifQ4 P&C current-year catastrophe losses fall below $198 million before tax.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$95 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $194 loss on $10,000 · 1.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,601 loss on $10,000 · 16.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.