Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Hippo Holdings, Inc. (HIPO)
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-11-04
$34.79-3.04%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.71 → 1.94 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 3 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 3 to 3; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for HIPO yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Net income improves to about $50 million positive in 2026 | Operating income turned positive, reaching $7.2 million in Q1 2026. | Improving | Net income falls below zero in FY26 | Net income: $8.8M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: ~$50 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 29, 20268,800,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a growth and execution story in insurance, not yet a proven profitable compounder. The thesis has improved after recent earnings, but its state remains watch because recent financial performance is still weak versus its industry cohort.
The valuation signal is cheap, while the model indicates HIPO trades at a premium to peers and that expectations are close to the model view. These signals are mixed, with no evidence of concentrated fragility in the priced-in assessment.
Near term, recent results show revenue and gross written premium growth alongside an improved combined ratio, a measure of claims and expenses relative to premiums. HIPO remains loss-making, and the latest net loss ratio rose year over year; the evidence also does not yet show specific operating gains from its AI initiative.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on sustaining profitable growth and underwriting discipline without reversing recently raised guidance. Falling rates are a sector risk in the supplied evidence, while continued strong results and higher guidance from sector bellwethers could support sector momentum.
The 1-to-3-year view is cautiously improving, but HIPO still needs to show that premium growth can translate into durable profitability. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Operating income turned positive, reaching $7.2 million in Q1 2026. |
| Intact |
| Operating income falls below zero in Q1 2026 |
Operating income: $10.1M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $7.2 million. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Oct 29, 202610,100,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Hippo's revenue reaches about $565 million in 2026 | Hippo raised revenue guidance to about $565 million for 2026. | Intact | Revenue falls below $460 million in FY26 | Revenue: $156M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: ~$565 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 29, 2026156,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.21 → $1.94 · observed estimates
$0.76B → $0.76B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.21 | $762,101,350 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.21 | $762,101,350 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-26 | $3.27 | $768,160,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.21 | $762,101,350 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | $3.27 | $768,160,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-07-29 | $3.27 | $768,160,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-07-30 | $3.27 | $768,160,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-07-31 | $3.27 | $768,160,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.53 | $768,668,019 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-02 | $3.40 | $764,080,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.55 | $761,418,019 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.55 | $761,418,019 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | $3.52 | $767,140,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-06 | $3.52 | $767,140,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-07 | $1.55 | $761,418,019 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | $3.52 | $775,040,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-09 | $3.52 | $775,040,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-10 | $3.52 | $775,040,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.55 | $761,418,019 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | $3.52 | $775,040,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.55 | $761,418,019 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.55 | $761,418,019 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.55 | $761,418,019 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.55 | $761,418,019 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.55 | $761,418,019 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.55 | $761,418,019 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.71 | $770,550,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.71 | $770,550,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.71 | $770,550,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.71 | $770,550,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.71 | $770,550,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.71 | $770,550,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.71 | $770,550,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.71 | $770,550,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.71 | $770,550,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.71 | $770,550,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.71 | $770,550,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.71 | $770,550,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.71 | $770,550,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.71 | $770,550,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.71 | $770,550,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.71 | $770,550,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.71 | $770,550,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.71 | $770,550,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.71 | $770,550,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.71 | $770,550,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.71 | $770,550,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.71 | $770,550,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.71 | $770,550,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.71 | $770,550,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.71 | $770,550,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.71 | $770,550,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.71 | $770,550,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.71 | $770,550,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.71 | $770,550,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.71 | $770,550,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.71 | $770,550,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.71 | $770,550,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.71 | $770,550,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.71 | $770,550,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.71 | $770,550,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.71 | $770,550,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.71 | $770,550,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.71 | $770,550,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.71 | $770,550,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.71 | $770,550,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.71 | $770,550,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.71 | $770,550,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.71 | $770,550,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.71 | $770,550,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.71 | $770,550,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.71 | $770,550,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.71 | $770,550,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.71 | $770,550,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.71 | $770,500,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.71 | $770,500,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.71 | $770,500,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.71 | $770,500,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.71 | $770,500,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.71 | $770,500,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.71 | $770,500,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.71 | $770,500,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.71 | $770,500,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.71 | $770,500,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.71 | $770,500,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.71 | $770,500,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.71 | $770,500,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.71 | $770,500,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.71 | $770,500,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.71 | $769,083,333 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.71 | $769,083,333 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.72 | $769,216,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.72 | $769,216,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.72 | $769,216,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.72 | $769,216,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.72 | $769,216,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.72 | $769,216,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.93 | $771,733,658 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.89 | $765,116,992 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.89 | $765,116,992 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.89 | $765,116,992 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.94 | $763,382,300 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.94 | $763,382,300 | 3 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 2 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.