Reading HL? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track HL free→Reading HL? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track HL free→NYSEMaterialsOther Precious Metals & MiningSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been steady, but risk is high, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, with HL trading below typical compared to sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 50% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich, as it trades above peer multiples, and the longer horizon does not make that back through growth. The outlook hinges on guidance changes and sector trends, particularly the performance of sector bellwethers. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $15.29. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $15 the market pays 39× p/e — above the 20× p/e peer median but in line with its own 46× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $9.82 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with low confidence. Analysts: $13–$27. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 56% near-term growth, in line with our forecast of about 50%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only expensive valuation — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Crisis) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Materials names rated strong grew net income 63% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=1093).
Over the trailing year it converted 2.63x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Materials names rated robust grew net income 64% of the time over the next year (vs 49% for the rest of the cohort, n=988).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.28 → $0.21 (-24.8% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 3 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 40% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
Divergence: fundamentals are strong but estimates are being cut. Worth reading the recent material events.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$295.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$659.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $5,582.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Better cash flow shows management is focused on improving operations. This is their top goal.
Confirms:Cash flow from operations increases by more than 10% compared to the previous quarter.
Disproves:Cash flow from operations decreases or stays flat compared to the previous quarter.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for HL yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 5, 2026, Hecla Mining Company (the “Company”) issued a news release announcing the Company’s first quarter 2026 operating and financial results. The news release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 to this Form 8-K. In accordance with General Instruction B.2 of Form 8-K, the information in this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$13.00 – $26.75 (median $24.00) · 3 analysts · as of 2026-05-06
Looks more expensive than peers.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Materials (broad).
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
HL Hecla Mining | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 22 of 100 | expensive | high |
RS Reliance, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 76 of 100 | full | moderate |
AA Alcoa | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 60 of 100 | full | elevated |
RGLD Royal Gold | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 55 of 100 | full | moderate |
RPM RPM International | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 75 of 100 | fair | moderate |
2 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Materials names rated stable grew net income 45% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=210).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLB
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on increasing cash flow from operations to support financial stability.
Continue efforts to sustain profitability through operational efficiency.
Aim to boost revenue through strategic initiatives and market expansion.
Why it matters: Higher operating income means the company earns more money. This aligns with management's goal to be efficient.
Confirms:Operating income exceeds $250M in Q2 2026.
Disproves:Operating income falls below $200M in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Improving cash flow shows better financial health and supports operational goals. This is crucial for future investments.
Confirms:Cash flow from operations reaches or exceeds $250M in Q2 2026.
Disproves:Cash flow from operations falls below $150M in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Strong revenue growth signals that Hecla Mining is on track with its growth goals. This is key for investor confidence.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth exceeds 10% compared to Q1 2026.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth is below 5% compared to Q1 2026.
Why it matters: If the materials sector grows, it may help Hecla Mining do better.
Confirms:Materials sector revenue growth turns positive after being negative for a year.
Disproves:Materials sector revenue growth is still negative. This shows it is still getting smaller.
Other Events Dividend On May 5, 2026, the Company announced it would pay a dividend on its shares of common stock in the amount of $0.00375, to shareholders of record as of May 22, 2026, payable on or about June 10, 2026. In addition to the common stock dividend, the Company also announced it declared a dividend of $0.875 on its Series B Cumulative Convertible Preferred Stock to shareholders of record as of June 15, 2026, payable on or about July 1, 2026.
Amendment to extend the expiration date of the Director Stock Plan.