Reading HLI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track HLI free→Reading HLI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track HLI free→NYSEFinancialsCapital MarketsSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been steady, while risk is moderate. The sector backdrop is a headwind, and compared with sector peers, HLI is above typical. Peer multiples imply a price roughly in line with where it trades (about fair); the read is fair, quality intact. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $137.89. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $138 HLI trades at 18× p/e, in line with its 18× p/e peer median. Our $138 fair value reflects that, high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 0% of near-term growth above a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated strong grew net income 67% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=3733).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.65x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated robust grew net income 62% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=3541).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.93 → $1.83 (-5.0% / 30d). 3 raised, 5 cut, 9 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 40% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$100.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$265.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,471.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Strong cash flow is a priority for management. Weak cash flow could raise concerns.
Confirms:Cash flow from operations reported above $50 million for the quarter.
Disproves:Cash flow from operations reported below $30 million for the quarter.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for HLI yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
of this Current Report on Form 8-K, including the information contained in Exhibit 99.1, is being furnished to the Securities and Exchange Commission pursuant to Item 2.02, and shall not be deemed to be “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, and shall not be deemed to be incorporated by reference into any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Investment Banking & Brokerage.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
HLI Houlihan Lokey | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 75 of 100 | fair | moderate |
MS Morgan Stanley | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 57 of 100 | full | moderate |
GS Goldman Sachs | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 36 of 100 | full | moderate |
SCHW Charles Schwab Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 86 of 100 | fair | moderate |
IBKR Interactive Brokers | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 57 of 100 | full | moderate |
Not enough signal yet.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on sustaining robust cash flow from operating activities.
Continue efforts to drive revenue growth across business segments.
Aim to improve operating income through strategic initiatives.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is key for Houlihan Lokey. A drop below 10% signals weakness.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth reported below 10% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth reported above 10% year over year.
Why it matters: The financial sector's growth impacts Houlihan Lokey. A drop signals broader issues.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth reported below 10% year over year.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth reported above 10% year over year.