Holley, Inc. (HLLY)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - PartsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$3.05-1.61%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - PartsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · HLLY
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 10 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $3.05 HLLY trades at 9.5× p/e, below its 14× p/e peer median. Our $4.39 fair value sits well above the price. It's a high-confidence read. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $4.85 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $18.61 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| graham number | 12M | $5.19 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $4.44 | 14.6 | 0.30 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Below average on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price the business can't be justified by any reasonable horizon of the forecast growth; the price already runs past what the model can underwrite. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $0.24/sh owner earnings.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| $4.33 |
| 13.5 |
| 0.32 |
| TTM |
| high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $3.26 | 0.6 | 5.10 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $8.63 | 27.0 | 0.32 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $3.75 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $3.81 | 11.9 | 0.32 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $4.27 | 13.5 | 0.32 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $6.75 | 14.6 | 0.46 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $5.67 | 13.5 | 0.42 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $3.73 | 0.6 | 5.84 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $11.31 | 27.0 | 0.42 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $4.99 | 11.9 | 0.42 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $8.93 | 14.6 | 0.61 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $6.18 | 13.5 | 0.46 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $4.06 | 0.6 | 6.36 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 5Y | $12.32 | 27.0 | 0.46 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $5.44 | 11.9 | 0.46 | Analyst | medium |