Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Holley, Inc. (HLLY)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - PartsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$2.14-26.21%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - PartsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.39 → 0.39 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 5 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for HLLY yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Capital spending stays between $15M and $20M in FY26 | A supporting condition in Holley, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is between $15 million and $20 million. | Intact | Capex falls below $15 million or exceeds $20 million in FY26 | Capital expenditures: $6.169M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: between $15 million and $20 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 5, 20266,169,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a smaller-cap business with an improvement-led multi-year view, rather than a clear-cut durable growth story. The thesis is on watch: core sales have grown and debt is being reduced, but recent financial performance remains below its industry cohort.
The valuation evidence points to HLLY being cheap versus peers, with the model showing a negative expectations gap and no flagged signs of fragile pricing. However, recent company momentum has weakened, so the low relative valuation sits alongside concerns about execution and performance.
Near term, results face some risk: earnings surprises are trending down, although the stated miss risk is low. Over the multi-year view, portfolio simplification, core sales growth, and debt repayments support the case for progress, but management execution is rated neutral and those efforts have mixed status.
The next call matters: a guidance cut would weaken the thesis, while the evidence does not establish that this will happen. Over the coming quarters, results and guidance from sector peers GPC, BWA, and APTV may signal whether the broader sector backdrop remains supportive.
HLLY’s 1-to-3-year case depends on sustaining core business growth, delivering portfolio changes, and continuing to reduce debt. Recent momentum and performance below the industry cohort leave meaningful execution and sector risks to monitor. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Revenue reaches at least $610 million in FY26 | A primary condition in Holley, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $610 million. | Intact | Revenue falls below $590 million in FY26 | Revenue: $172.007M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $610 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 5, 2026172,007,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Share repurchase program executes up to $25 million | It also started a $25 million stock buyback program. | Intact | No meaningful buybacks executed within 12 months | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.39 → $0.39 · observed estimates
$0.65B → $0.65B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.39 | $651,513,100 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.39 | $651,484,870 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.39 | $651,484,870 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.39 | $651,513,100 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.39 | $651,513,100 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.39 | $651,513,100 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.39 | $651,484,870 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.39 | $651,484,870 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.39 | $651,513,100 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.39 | $651,484,870 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.39 | $651,484,870 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.39 | $651,484,870 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.39 | $651,484,870 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.39 | $651,484,870 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.40 | $651,816,537 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.41 | $651,719,310 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.41 | $651,719,310 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.40 | $651,816,537 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.40 | $651,816,537 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.40 | $651,816,537 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.40 | $651,816,537 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.40 | $651,816,537 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.40 | $651,816,537 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.40 | $651,816,537 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.40 | $651,816,537 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.40 | $651,816,537 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.39 | $651,739,670 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.39 | $651,739,670 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.39 | $651,739,670 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.39 | $651,739,670 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.39 | $651,739,670 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.39 | $651,739,670 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.39 | $651,739,670 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.39 | $651,739,670 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.39 | $651,739,670 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.39 | $651,739,670 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.39 | $651,739,670 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.39 | $651,739,670 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.39 | $651,739,670 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.39 | $651,739,670 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.39 | $651,739,670 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.39 | $651,739,670 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.39 | $651,739,670 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.39 | $651,739,670 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.39 | $651,739,670 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.39 | $651,739,670 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.39 | $651,739,670 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.39 | $651,739,670 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.39 | $651,739,670 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.39 | $651,739,670 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.39 | $651,739,670 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.39 | $651,739,670 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.39 | $651,739,670 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.39 | $651,739,670 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.39 | $653,082,129 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.39 | $653,082,129 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.39 | $653,082,129 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.39 | $653,082,129 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.39 | $653,082,129 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.39 | $653,082,129 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.39 | $653,082,129 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.39 | $653,082,129 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.39 | $653,087,954 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.39 | $653,082,129 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.39 | $653,082,129 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.39 | $653,082,129 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.39 | $653,082,129 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.39 | $653,082,129 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.39 | $653,082,129 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.39 | $653,082,129 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.39 | $653,082,129 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.39 | $653,082,129 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.39 | $653,082,129 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.39 | $653,082,129 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.39 | $653,082,129 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.39 | $653,265,504 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.39 | $653,265,504 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.39 | $653,265,504 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.39 | $653,265,504 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.39 | $653,265,504 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.39 | $653,265,504 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.39 | $653,265,504 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.39 | $653,265,504 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.39 | $653,265,504 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.39 | $653,265,504 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.39 | $653,265,504 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.39 | $653,265,504 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.39 | $653,265,504 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.39 | $653,265,504 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.39 | $653,265,504 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.39 | $653,265,504 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.39 | $653,265,504 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.39 | $653,265,504 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.39 | $653,265,504 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.39 | $653,265,504 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.39 | $653,265,504 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.39 | $653,265,504 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.39 | $653,265,504 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.39 | $653,265,504 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.39 | $653,265,504 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.39 | $653,265,504 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.39 | $653,265,504 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.39 | $653,269,629 | 5 / 6 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 6 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.