Holley, Inc. (HLLY)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - PartsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$3.05-1.61%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - PartsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · HLLY
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -30.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 4.7% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 35.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 32 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
HLLY — credit agreement
Dated 2026-07-14
Other Events. On July 14, 2026, the Company issued a press release announcing the paydown of $15 million of its first lien term loan facility. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein by reference.
Why it matters: Updates on share buybacks can show management's confidence in the company. This may help the share price.
Supportive ifThey announced share buybacks of more than $5 million for the next quarter.
Worry ifNo further announcements on share repurchases or a pause in the program.
Why it matters: Adjusted EBITDA margin shows how well the company runs. It also shows how much money it makes.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA margin is over 19.6% in Q3.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA margin falls below 19.6% in Q3.
Why it matters: Updates will show how well Holley is managing its focus and complexity.
Watch forManagement says the portfolio plan has helped revenue or cut costs.
Also watch forManagement says there are problems with the portfolio plan.
Why it matters: Reducing debt shows good financial health. It also helps how investors feel.
Supportive ifThey announced a voluntary debt prepayment of at least $15 million.
Worry ifNo announcements of further debt reduction in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Guidance on capital expenditures will show how management plans to invest for growth. It affects future performance.
Watch forManagement plans to spend more money next year.
Also watch forManagement plans to spend less money next year.
Why it matters: Better revenue trends show that leaving non-core businesses works. This is important for making money.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue growth should improve from Q1, ideally over $610 million.
Worry ifIf Q2 revenue drops or stays under $610 million, it shows poor portfolio changes.
Why it matters: Core sales growth shows if the portfolio changes are working. It helps gauge future performance.
Supportive ifCore business net sales growth exceeds 2% year over year in Q3.
Worry ifCore business net sales growth is below 2% year over year in Q3.
Why it matters: Strong free cash flow helps pay off debt and invest. It shows efficiency.
Supportive ifFree cash flow exceeds $40 million in Q3.
Worry ifFree cash flow falls below $30 million in Q3.
Why it matters: Less debt is good for financial health. It shows management cares about stability.
Supportive ifLeverage ratio falls below 3.5x by year-end 2026.
Worry ifLeverage ratio remains above 3.5x by year-end 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$207 on $10,000 · ±2.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $589 loss on $10,000 · 5.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,624 loss on $10,000 · 46.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.