Holley, Inc. (HLLY)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - PartsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$2.90+7.41%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - PartsSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · HLLY
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -24.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 5.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 30.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 20 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
HLLY — earnings miss
Dated 2026-11-05
of this Report, including Exhibit 99.1, attached hereto, is furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Exchange Act or Securities Act of 1933, as amended, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.
Why it matters: Holley linked its second-half plan to new retail placements and product launches. Higher sales would show these efforts are reaching customers.
Supportive ifHolley reports core sales growth from last year in Q3. It names new retail placements or product launches as sales drivers.
Worry ifHolley reports a year-over-year drop in Q3 core sales and no sales gain from new placements or launches.
Why it matters: Holley reported 4.9% core sales growth in Q2 and kept its full-year guide. Q3 results test whether that pace can continue.
Watch forOn November 5, Q3 core sales are up year over year and Holley keeps its 2% to 7% full-year core growth guide.
Also watch forQ3 core sales fall year over year, or Holley cuts its full-year core growth guide below 2%.
Why it matters: Q2 adjusted EBITDA was $33.8 million, below last year's $36.4 million. Management said the prior year had a one-time benefit.
Watch forQ3 adjusted EBITDA keeps the company on pace for at least $127 million for 2026, with the full-year guide unchanged.
Also watch forHolley cuts its 2026 adjusted EBITDA guide below $127 million, or Q3 results put that floor out of reach.
Why it matters: Holley says debt payments came from free cash flow. A drop in cash generation could slow its debt reduction plan.
Worry ifHolley reports positive free cash flow for Q3. It also makes another voluntary term-loan payment.
Less concerning ifHolley reports negative free cash flow for Q3 and makes no voluntary debt payment.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$207 on $10,000 · ±2.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $598 loss on $10,000 · 6.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,784 loss on $10,000 · 47.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Holley has repaid $125 million of debt since 2023. Reaching below 3.5x would meet its stated year-end target.
Supportive ifHolley's year-end report shows a total leverage ratio below 3.5x.
Worry ifHolley's year-end report shows a total leverage ratio of 3.5x or higher.