Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-03-31 · fmp
Hamilton Lane (HLNE)
NASDAQFinancialsAsset ManagementSnapshot 2026-11-05
$90.13-5.12%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsAsset ManagementSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
7.28 → 7.41 EPS · FY ending Mar 31, 2028 · 3 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 3 to 3; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for HLNE yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Full-year dividend increases by 11% to $2.40 | A supporting condition in Hamilton Lane's published investment case. The stated target is >= $2.40 full-year dividend. | Intact | Dividend increase falls short of 11% or below $2.40 in FY26 | Required source inputs unavailable Cannot calculate Dividend per share from the available matching source inputs. Missing inputs are not treated as zero. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-03-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a financial business with a growth-led long-term thesis, rather than a turnaround story. The thesis is intact: recent performance is strong and management priorities appear on track, though the risk level is elevated.
The evidence labels pricing as justified, with low fragility, meaning it does not flag unusually stretched expectations. The expectations-gap measure is negative, but the snapshot does not explain its scale or provide peer valuation comparisons, so the degree of optimism priced in is unclear.
Near-term results have been strong: the latest release reported Fee Related Earnings up 49% year over year, alongside higher revenue and growth in fee-earning assets. Management has emphasized client-driven growth and earnings growth, while a CEO transition was reported on October 15; the evidence does not detail its effects. A guidance cut remains a meaningful near-term risk, and the snapshot notes a history of deep misses despite a low current miss-risk assessment.
The multi-year view depends on continued client-driven growth and the ability to expand fee-related earnings. Near term, a guidance cut would weaken the thesis, while ongoing earnings strength at sector bellwethers such as BLK, BX, and KKR could support the sector backdrop. The rate scenario also matters: the evidence says rate cuts from the current 3.88% level could weigh on financial stocks.
For the next 1 to 3 years, HLNE’s thesis is supported by strong recent financial performance and management execution, but guidance, rates, and elevated risks remain important tests. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Net income rose to $66 million in 2026-Q4. |
| Intact |
| Net income falls below $66 million in 2026-Q4 |
Net income: $77.486M FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $66.17 million. The stored target says 2026-Q4; this source reports FY2027-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Nov 3, 202677,486,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Operating income rises to at least $130 million in 2026-Q4 | Net income rose to $66 million in 2026-Q4. | Intact | Operating income falls below $130 million in 2026-Q4 | Operating income: $126.471M FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: >= $129.84 million. The stored target says 2026-Q4; this source reports FY2027-Q1. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 4, 2026126,471,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth of about 21% per year | Hamilton Lane grows revenue about 21% a year. | Intact | YoY revenue growth falls below ~20.9% in FY27 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$7.25 → $7.41 · observed estimates
$1.02B → $1.05B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $7.25 | $1,024,001,597 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-25 | $7.36 | $1,051,042,880 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-07-26 | $7.36 | $1,051,042,880 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-07-27 | $7.36 | $1,051,042,880 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-07-28 | $7.25 | $1,024,001,597 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | $7.25 | $1,024,001,597 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | $7.36 | $1,051,042,880 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-07-31 | $7.36 | $1,051,042,880 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-01 | $7.25 | $1,024,001,597 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-02 | $7.36 | $1,051,042,880 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-03 | $7.25 | $1,024,001,597 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | $7.25 | $1,024,001,597 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | $7.36 | $1,051,042,880 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-06 | $7.36 | $1,051,042,880 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-07 | $7.29 | $1,039,018,341 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | $7.38 | $1,063,022,970 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-09 | $7.38 | $1,063,022,970 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-10 | $7.29 | $1,039,018,341 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | $7.29 | $1,039,018,341 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | $7.29 | $1,039,018,341 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | $7.29 | $1,039,018,341 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | $7.29 | $1,039,018,341 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | $7.29 | $1,039,018,341 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | $7.29 | $1,039,018,341 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | $7.29 | $1,039,018,341 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | $7.29 | $1,039,018,341 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | $7.29 | $1,039,018,341 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | $7.29 | $1,039,018,341 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | $7.29 | $1,039,018,341 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-23 | $7.29 | $1,039,018,341 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | $7.29 | $1,039,018,341 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | $7.29 | $1,039,018,341 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | $7.29 | $1,039,018,341 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | $7.29 | $1,039,018,341 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | $7.29 | $1,039,018,341 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-29 | $7.29 | $1,039,018,341 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-30 | $7.29 | $1,039,018,341 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | $7.29 | $1,039,018,341 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $7.29 | $1,039,018,341 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $7.29 | $1,039,018,341 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $7.29 | $1,039,018,341 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $7.29 | $1,039,018,341 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $7.29 | $1,039,018,341 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $7.29 | $1,039,018,341 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $7.29 | $1,039,018,341 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $7.29 | $1,039,018,341 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $7.29 | $1,039,018,341 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $7.29 | $1,039,018,341 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $7.29 | $1,039,018,341 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $7.29 | $1,039,018,341 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $7.29 | $1,039,018,341 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $7.29 | $1,039,018,341 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $7.29 | $1,039,018,341 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $7.29 | $1,039,018,341 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $7.29 | $1,039,018,341 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $7.29 | $1,039,018,341 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $7.29 | $1,039,018,341 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $7.29 | $1,039,018,341 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $7.29 | $1,039,018,341 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $7.29 | $1,039,018,341 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $7.29 | $1,039,018,341 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $7.29 | $1,039,018,341 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $7.29 | $1,039,018,341 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $7.29 | $1,039,018,341 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $7.29 | $1,039,018,341 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $7.29 | $1,039,018,341 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $7.29 | $1,039,018,341 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $7.29 | $1,039,018,341 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $7.29 | $1,039,018,341 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $7.27 | $1,035,134,491 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $7.28 | $1,033,992,434 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-04 | $7.28 | $1,033,992,434 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-05 | $7.28 | $1,033,992,434 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-06 | $7.28 | $1,033,992,434 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-07 | $7.28 | $1,033,992,434 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-08 | $7.30 | $1,034,549,578 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-09 | $7.30 | $1,034,549,578 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-10 | $7.30 | $1,034,549,578 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-11 | $7.30 | $1,034,549,578 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-12 | $7.30 | $1,034,549,578 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-13 | $7.30 | $1,034,549,578 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-14 | $7.29 | $1,030,044,946 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-15 | $7.29 | $1,030,044,946 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-16 | $7.29 | $1,029,959,231 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-17 | $7.29 | $1,029,959,231 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-18 | $7.32 | $1,038,104,883 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-19 | $7.32 | $1,038,104,883 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-20 | $7.41 | $1,059,434,837 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-21 | $7.41 | $1,059,434,837 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-22 | $7.40 | $1,059,063,409 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-23 | $7.40 | $1,059,063,409 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-24 | $7.40 | $1,059,063,409 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-25 | $7.40 | $1,059,063,409 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-26 | $7.40 | $1,059,063,409 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-27 | $7.40 | $1,059,063,409 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-28 | $7.36 | $1,046,016,320 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-29 | $7.36 | $1,046,016,320 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-30 | $7.36 | $1,046,016,320 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-31 | $7.36 | $1,046,016,320 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-11-01 | $7.36 | $1,046,016,320 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-11-02 | $7.36 | $1,046,016,320 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-11-03 | $7.36 | $1,046,016,320 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-11-04 | $7.41 | $1,052,903,391 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-11-05 | $7.41 | $1,052,903,391 | 3 / 5 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 7 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 5 recorded
1 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.