Hamilton Lane (HLNE)
NASDAQFinancialsAsset ManagementSnapshot 2026-09-04
$103.06-0.33%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsAsset ManagementSnapshot 2026-09-04
Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
Hamilton Lane grows revenue about 21% a year. Net income rose to $66 million in 2026-Q4. The company plans an 11% dividend increase and a $100 million buyback. Its tokenized fund launch supports growth.
The recent 24.5% share price drop shows market doubts. Revenue growth or income gains could slow. Rising inflation and stormy market weather may hurt results.
The price is about 36% below our fair value near $126. Analysts expect 21% revenue growth. Our fair value is 11% below the Street median, reflecting cautious optimism.
Breaks if: Dividend increase falls short of 11% or below $2.40 in FY26
Maintain and grow the full-year dividend target by 11% over the prior fiscal year.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a stable compounder with a focus on consistent growth in dividends and net income. The current thesis is intact, supported by strong recent financial results and management's commitment to increasing key financial metrics.
The market seems to have priced in a justified valuation, with a low expectations gap. There is a low level of fragility in the current setup, indicating that the stock is not overly sensitive to negative news.
Fundamentals are likely to continue improving, as management is on track to increase both net and operating income. Recent financial performance has been strong, but there is an elevated risk due to the potential for guidance cuts.
The long-term thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like BLK, BX, and KKR. If these companies continue to report strong earnings, it could support HLNE's growth. Conversely, any negative guidance from these peers could impact HLNE's momentum.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Mixed, the news cuts both ways. The latest earnings beat supports the thesis. An 11% increase in the full-year dividend also strengthens the outlook. However, concerns about evergreen risks could impact net income growth.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated as a priority in 5 of last 5 quarters. The full-year dividend target increased from $2.16 in 2026-Q3 to $2.40 in 2026-Q4, an 11% increase. Management has consistently reiterated this dividend growth target, and the trajectory is delivering as planned.
“The target full-year dividend of $2.40 represents a 11% increase from the prior fiscal year dividend.”
“The target full-year dividend of $2.16 represents a 10% increase from the prior fiscal year dividend.”
“The target full-year dividend of $2.16 represents a 10% increase from the prior fiscal year dividend.”
“The target full-year dividend of $2.16 represents a 10% increase from the prior fiscal year dividend.”
“The target full-year dividend of $2.16 represents a 10% increase from the prior fiscal year dividend.”
Breaks if: Net income falls below $66 million in 2026-Q4
Grow net income attributable to Hamilton Lane Incorporated over time.
Stated as a priority in 5 of last 5 quarters. Net income attributable to Hamilton Lane Incorporated increased from $50.5 million in 2025-Q4 to $80.5 million in 2026-Q4, a 59% increase. Management's statements align with the financial results, showing delivering growth in net income.
“Net income attributable to Hamilton Lane Incorporated was $80.5 million for the quarter, an increase of 50% compared to the three months ended June 30, 2025.”
“Net income attributable to Hamilton Lane Incorporated was $66.2 million for the quarter, a 31% increase year-over-year.”
“Net income attributable to Hamilton Lane Incorporated was $70.9 million for the quarter.”
“Net income attributable to Hamilton Lane Incorporated was $53.7 million for the quarter.”
“Net income attributable to Hamilton Lane Incorporated was $50.5 million for the quarter.”
Breaks if: Operating income falls below $130 million in 2026-Q4
Grow operating income over time to improve profitability.
Stated as a priority in 5 of last 5 quarters. Income before income taxes increased from $88.3 million in 2025-Q4 to $149.97 million in 2026-Q4, a 70% increase. Management's repeated emphasis on operating income growth matches the improving financial results, indicating delivering progress.
“Income before income taxes was $149.97 million for the quarter, a 57% increase year-over-year.”
“Income before income taxes was $129.8 million for the quarter.”
“Income before income taxes was $117.6 million for the quarter.”
“Income before income taxes was $95.4 million for the quarter.”
“Income before income taxes was $88.3 million for the quarter.”
Breaks if: YoY revenue growth falls below ~20.9% in FY27
Grow net income attributable to Hamilton Lane Incorporated over time.
Stated as a priority in 5 of last 5 quarters. Net income attributable to Hamilton Lane Incorporated increased from $50.5 million in 2025-Q4 to $80.5 million in 2026-Q4, a 59% increase. Management's statements align with the financial results, showing delivering growth in net income.
“Net income attributable to Hamilton Lane Incorporated was $80.5 million for the quarter, an increase of 50% compared to the three months ended June 30, 2025.”
“Net income attributable to Hamilton Lane Incorporated was $66.2 million for the quarter, a 31% increase year-over-year.”
“Net income attributable to Hamilton Lane Incorporated was $70.9 million for the quarter.”
“Net income attributable to Hamilton Lane Incorporated was $53.7 million for the quarter.”
“Net income attributable to Hamilton Lane Incorporated was $50.5 million for the quarter.”
Overall, HLNE is positioned well in its sector with strong management execution and financial performance. Not investment advice.