Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-03 · fmp
HNI Corporation (HNI)
NYSEIndustrialsFurnishings, Fixtures & AppliancesSnapshot 2026-11-05
$48.31-1.69%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsFurnishings, Fixtures & AppliancesSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
4.80 → 4.78 EPS · FY ending Jan 3, 2028 · 2 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 2 to 2; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for HNI yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain dividend payments at $0.34 per share | The company keeps paying a steady dividend of $0.34 per share. | Intact | dividend cut below $0.34 per share | Dividend per share: $0.35 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.34 dividend per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Nov 3, 20260.35 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-03 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
HNI is an acquisition-led industrial business with a cyclical sector backdrop and a margin-improvement thesis. The long-term thesis is on watch: recent results are neutral, while earnings quality is fragile, management execution is volatile, and risk is elevated.
The valuation is described as cheap versus peers, and it has fallen recently. The expectations gap is negative, suggesting expectations are not especially demanding, while the priced-in assessment calls the setup justified rather than unusually fragile.
Near term, revenue and operating income have grown sharply, mainly with the Steelcase acquisition; organic growth was only 0.1% in the latest quarter. Management says low-single-digit organic growth is expected in both segments and points to cost work and acquisition synergies, but a history of a deep earnings miss and a downward trend in surprises leave execution risk.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on low-single-digit organic growth and whether Steelcase synergies support further margin improvement. Guidance cuts would be a negative signal; continued strength in sector bellwethers TILE, MLKN, and MBC would support the sector backdrop, while weaker results or guidance from them could remove that support.
For the next 1 to 3 years, HNI has a credible integration and margin-improvement case, but limited organic growth and elevated execution and sector risks keep the thesis on watch. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in HNI Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is > $0 operating income. |
| Improving |
| operating income remains negative through next 4 quarters |
Operating income: $136.7M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: > $0 operating income. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Nov 3, 2026136,700,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Sustain strong revenue growth above $1.3B in Q1 2026 | A primary condition in HNI Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is >= $1.3B revenue in Q1 2026. | Intact | revenue falls below $1.0B in any quarter through 2026 | Revenue: $1.593B FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $1.3B revenue in Q1 2026. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Nov 3, 20261,592,900,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$4.83 → $4.78 · observed estimates
$6.24B → $6.21B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $4.83 | $6,238,172,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-25 | $4.83 | $6,238,172,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-26 | $4.83 | $6,240,697,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-27 | $4.83 | $6,240,697,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-28 | $4.83 | $6,240,697,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-29 | $4.83 | $6,240,697,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-30 | $4.83 | $6,240,697,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-31 | $4.83 | $6,240,697,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-01 | $4.83 | $6,240,697,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-02 | $4.83 | $6,211,887,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-03 | $4.83 | $6,211,887,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-04 | $4.83 | $6,211,887,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-05 | $4.83 | $6,211,887,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-06 | $4.83 | $6,211,887,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-07 | $4.83 | $6,211,887,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-08 | $4.83 | $6,211,887,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-09 | $4.83 | $6,211,887,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-10 | $4.83 | $6,211,887,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-12 | $4.83 | $6,211,887,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-13 | $4.83 | $6,211,887,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-14 | $4.83 | $6,211,887,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | $4.83 | $6,211,887,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $4.83 | $6,211,887,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $4.83 | $6,211,887,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $4.83 | $6,211,887,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $4.83 | $6,211,887,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $4.83 | $6,203,737,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $4.83 | $6,203,737,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $4.83 | $6,203,737,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $4.83 | $6,203,737,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $4.83 | $6,203,737,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $4.83 | $6,203,737,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $4.83 | $6,203,737,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $4.83 | $6,203,737,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $4.83 | $6,203,737,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $4.83 | $6,203,737,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $4.83 | $6,203,737,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $4.83 | $6,203,737,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $4.83 | $6,203,737,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $4.83 | $6,203,737,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $4.83 | $6,203,737,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $4.83 | $6,203,737,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $4.83 | $6,203,737,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $4.83 | $6,203,737,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $4.83 | $6,203,737,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $4.83 | $6,203,737,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $4.83 | $6,203,737,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $4.83 | $6,203,737,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $4.83 | $6,203,737,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $4.83 | $6,203,737,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $4.83 | $6,203,737,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $4.83 | $6,203,737,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $4.83 | $6,203,737,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $4.83 | $6,203,737,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $4.83 | $6,203,737,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $4.83 | $6,203,737,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $4.83 | $6,203,737,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $4.83 | $6,203,737,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $4.83 | $6,203,737,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $4.83 | $6,203,737,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $4.83 | $6,203,737,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $4.83 | $6,203,737,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $4.83 | $6,203,737,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $4.83 | $6,203,737,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $4.83 | $6,203,737,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $4.83 | $6,203,737,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $4.83 | $6,203,737,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $4.83 | $6,203,737,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $4.83 | $6,203,737,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $4.83 | $6,203,737,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $4.83 | $6,203,737,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $4.80 | $6,200,837,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $4.80 | $6,200,837,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $4.80 | $6,200,837,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $4.80 | $6,200,837,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $4.80 | $6,200,837,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $4.80 | $6,200,837,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $4.80 | $6,200,837,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $4.80 | $6,200,837,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $4.80 | $6,200,837,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $4.80 | $6,200,837,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $4.80 | $6,200,837,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $4.78 | $6,194,901,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $4.78 | $6,194,901,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $4.78 | $6,194,901,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $4.78 | $6,194,901,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $4.78 | $6,194,901,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $4.78 | $6,194,901,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $4.78 | $6,194,901,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $4.78 | $6,194,901,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $4.78 | $6,194,901,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $4.78 | $6,194,901,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $4.78 | $6,194,901,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $4.78 | $6,194,901,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $4.78 | $6,194,901,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $4.78 | $6,194,901,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $4.78 | $6,194,901,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $4.78 | $6,194,901,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $4.78 | $6,205,951,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $4.78 | $6,205,951,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $4.78 | $6,205,951,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $4.78 | $6,205,951,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $4.78 | $6,205,951,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-05 | $4.78 | $6,205,951,000 | 2 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.