Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-30 · fmp
Hennessy Advisors Inc (HNNA)
NASDAQFinancialsAsset ManagementSnapshot 2026-11-05
$10.52-0.09%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsAsset ManagementSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.51 → 1.51 EPS · FY ending Sep 30, 2028 · 1 analyst
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 1 to 1; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for HNNA yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain dividend payout at $0.15 per share | Hennessy Advisors pays steady dividends near $0.15 per share. | Intact | dividend per share falls below $0.15 next quarter | Dividend per share: $0.15 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.15 per share. The stored target says 2026-Q2; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 5, 20260.15 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-30 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Dec 2, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
HNNA is a small financial company with a mixed, execution-dependent long-term thesis rather than a clearly durable growth story. The current thesis state is watch, with recent performance below its industry cohort but no fresh break in the thesis.
The valuation evidence describes HNNA as cheap versus peers, and its valuation score has recently declined. The expectations gap is negative, while the priced-in assessment says current expectations are justified and fragility is low; confidence in these signals is medium.
Near term, results may remain uneven: the company has missed across recent quarters, and the estimated chance of another miss is elevated. Revenue rose from $8.1 million in 2026-Q1 to $8.4 million in 2026-Q2, but remained below $9.3 million in 2025-Q2; net cash also increased, while evidence for dividend sustainability and strategic growth delivery is limited.
A guidance cut at the next call would be a meaningful negative, while continued high rates are described as supportive for financial-sector names. Strong earnings and higher guidance from sector bellwethers such as BLK, BX, and KKR could support sector momentum; litigation filed in May is also a relevant risk, though the snapshot gives no further detail.
Over the next one to three years, the thesis depends on turning mixed operating progress into sustained growth while managing elevated risk. Cheap peer valuation offers context, but does not resolve the execution questions. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “We believe our balance sheet remains a competitive advantage, allowing us to pursue strategic acquisition opportunities while continuing to return capital to our shareholders through a dividend.”” “Today’s dividend announcement demonstrates the continuation of our corporate strategy.””
Grow operating income to at least $2.61 million | Earnings grew slightly to $2.61 million in the last quarter. | Intact | operating income falls below $2.61 million next quarter | Operating income: $2.913M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $2.61 million. The stored target says 2026-Q2; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 5, 20262,913,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Limit revenue decline to no worse than -15% year over year | A supporting condition in Hennessy Advisors Inc's published investment case. The stated target is >= -15% YoY. | Intact | revenue decline exceeds -15% YoY next year | Revenue growth: 4.17% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= -15% YoY. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 5, 20264.17184 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.51 → $1.51 · observed estimates
$0.04B → $0.04B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01 | $1.51 | $43,370,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.51 | $43,370,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.51 | $43,370,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.51 | $43,370,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.51 | $43,370,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.51 | $43,370,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.51 | $43,370,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.51 | $43,370,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.51 | $43,370,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.51 | $43,370,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.51 | $43,370,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.51 | $43,370,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.51 | $43,370,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.51 | $43,370,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.51 | $43,370,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.51 | $43,370,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.51 | $43,370,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.51 | $43,370,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.51 | $43,370,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.51 | $43,370,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.51 | $43,370,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.51 | $43,370,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.51 | $43,370,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.51 | $43,370,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.51 | $43,370,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.51 | $43,370,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.51 | $43,370,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.51 | $43,370,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.51 | $43,370,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.51 | $43,370,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.51 | $43,370,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.51 | $43,370,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.51 | $43,370,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.51 | $43,370,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.51 | $43,370,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-05 | $1.51 | $43,370,000 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Monthly analyst history is unavailable.
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.