Reading HP? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track HP free→Reading HP? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track HP free→NYSEEnergyOil & Gas DrillingSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and the company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed. Management's recent track record has been steady, but risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, with HP trading below typical compared to sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 11% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. Key factors to watch include potential guidance cuts and sector trends, as these could significantly impact HP's outlook. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 3 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $39.25. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $39 HP trades at 1× p/s, below its 2× p/s peer median. Our $43 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Analysts: $35–$43. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 9% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 23%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Energy names rated weak grew net income 60% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=979).
Over the trailing year it converted -1.46x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.09 → $0.08 (-3.5% / 30d). 5 raised, 0 cut, 7 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 3 maintained. 44% of analysts rate Buy.
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 7.8% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$163.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$439.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,711.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: This margin shows stability in H&P's offshore segment. Good results can help finances.
Confirms one read:Offshore Solutions direct margin exceeds $28 million for Q3.
Confirms the other:Offshore Solutions direct margin falls below $24 million for Q3.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for HP yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
OTHER EVENTS The Directors of Helmerich & Payne, Inc. (the " Company "), at a Board of Directors meeting held on June 3, 2026, declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.25 per share on the Company's common stock, payable on September 1, 2026, to stockholders of record at the close of business August 18, 2026. SIGNATURE Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned hereunt…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
$35.00 – $43.00 (median $41.00) · 6 analysts · as of 2026-06-03
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Energy (broad).
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
HP Helmerich & Payne, Inc. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 14 of 100 | fair | moderate |
FTI TechnipFMC | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 78 of 100 | full | moderate |
PR Permian Resources | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 41 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
OVV Ovintiv | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 59 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
VNOM Viper Energy | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 49 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
1 material management or governance event in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Energy names rated stable grew net income 53% of the time over the next year (vs 45% for the rest of the cohort, n=249).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Helmerich & Payne is expanding the deployment of its FlexRobotics Technology to support growing customer demand.
Helmerich & Payne is focusing on improving the direct margin in its North America Solutions segment.
Helmerich & Payne aims to achieve its guidance for the Offshore Solutions segment's direct margin.
Helmerich & Payne is committed to maintaining its capital expenditure guidance for fiscal 2026.
Why it matters: Fixing this bond is key for H&P's financial stability. Progress can boost investor trust.
Confirms:Announcement of a plan to refinance or pay down the $350 million bond.
Disproves:No progress updates on the $350 million bond by the next earnings call.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show if the company is improving its financial health. Investors look for signs of recovery or continued losses.
Confirms one read:Earnings report shows a profit or smaller loss compared to previous quarters.
Confirms the other:Earnings report shows a larger loss than expected or no improvement.
Why it matters: If energy sector revenue growth speeds up, it could signal a recovery for Helmerich & Payne. This would help the company improve its performance.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth rate increases back toward previous highs, above 6%.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth continues to slow or remains below 6%.
of Form 8-K and shall not be deemed to be "filed" for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that Section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing.