Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Harrow, Inc. (HROW)
NASDAQHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSnapshot 2026-11-04
$26.04-9.43%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
2.20 → 2.18 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 5 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for HROW yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Achieve Adjusted EBITDA of $80M-$100M in 2026 | It targets adjusted EBITDA near $90 million. | Improving | Adjusted EBITDA falls below $80M in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Based on what we’re seeing across the business today, I remain confident in our ability to deliver our full-year guidance of $350 million to $365 million in revenue and $80 million to $100 million in adjusted EBITDA.”” “For additional information, including a reconciliation of Adjusted EBITDA to the most directly comparable measure presented in accordance with GAAP, see the explanation of non-GAAP measures and reconciliation tables at the end of this release.” |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a growth-oriented healthcare business with an execution-dependent long-term thesis, not a proven earnings compounder. The thesis is intact, though recent earnings have been erratic and management execution is rated volatile.
The valuation model shows a durable premium to peers, while the expectations gap is negative, suggesting expectations are demanding relative to the evidence. The premium is tagged as justified, but HROW is still loss-making, so the valuation depends on growth translating into stronger financial results over time.
Near term, revenue has grown sequentially, management reaffirmed 2026 guidance of $350 million to $365 million, and VEVYE revenue and market share increased. TYRVAYA has been acquired and is expected to add over $30 million in 2027 revenue, but elevated risk of another earnings miss and the history of erratic surprises remain important concerns.
The multi-year thesis hinges on meeting 2026 revenue guidance, sustaining VEVYE’s demand growth, and integrating TYRVAYA as planned. A guidance cut or a weaker economic backdrop would weigh on the setup, while continued strength from healthcare sector peers could support sector momentum.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, HROW’s growth story has visible support from recent revenue gains and its expanded dry eye franchise, but losses, demanding expectations, and earnings volatility keep the thesis dependent on execution. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Manage debt from $50M senior notes issuance | A supporting condition in Harrow, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Maintain manageable debt service. | Intact | Debt service issues or refinancing problems arise | Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Increase Q2 2026 revenue to $71M-$81M | A supporting condition in Harrow, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $71M. | Broken | Q2 revenue falls below $71M | Revenue: $70.661M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $71M. The target does not explicitly identify fiscal versus calendar quarters. Aug 10, 202670,661,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve 2026 revenue of $350M-$365M | A primary condition in Harrow, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is ~$357.5M. | Intact | Revenue falls below $350M in FY26 | Revenue: $70.661M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$357.5M. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 10, 202670,661,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Based on what we’re seeing across the business today, I remain confident in our ability to deliver our full-year guidance of $350 million to $365 million in revenue and $80 million to $100 million in adjusted EBITDA.”” “The table is set.” Revenue was $70.661 million in 2026-Q2. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$2.31 → $2.18 · observed estimates
$0.52B → $0.53B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $2.31 | $515,650,125 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-25 | $2.31 | $515,650,125 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-26 | $2.33 | $517,465,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-27 | $2.33 | $517,465,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-28 | $2.68 | $517,465,000 | 3 / 8 |
| 2026-07-29 | $2.68 | $517,465,000 | 3 / 8 |
| 2026-07-30 | $2.68 | $517,465,000 | 3 / 8 |
| 2026-07-31 | $2.68 | $517,465,000 | 3 / 8 |
| 2026-08-01 | $2.33 | $517,465,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-02 | $2.68 | $517,465,000 | 3 / 8 |
| 2026-08-03 | $2.68 | $517,465,000 | 3 / 8 |
| 2026-08-04 | $2.68 | $517,465,000 | 3 / 8 |
| 2026-08-05 | $2.68 | $517,465,000 | 3 / 8 |
| 2026-08-06 | $2.68 | $517,465,000 | 3 / 8 |
| 2026-08-07 | $2.33 | $517,465,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-08 | $2.68 | $517,465,000 | 3 / 8 |
| 2026-08-09 | $2.68 | $517,465,000 | 3 / 8 |
| 2026-08-10 | $2.33 | $517,465,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-12 | $2.68 | $517,465,000 | 3 / 8 |
| 2026-08-13 | $2.68 | $517,465,000 | 3 / 8 |
| 2026-08-14 | $2.33 | $517,465,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-15 | $2.33 | $517,465,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-16 | $2.33 | $517,465,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-17 | $2.33 | $517,465,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-18 | $2.33 | $517,465,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-19 | $2.33 | $517,465,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-20 | $2.25 | $532,563,125 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-21 | $2.25 | $532,563,125 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-22 | $2.25 | $532,557,249 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-23 | $2.25 | $532,557,249 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-24 | $2.25 | $532,557,249 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-25 | $2.25 | $532,557,249 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-26 | $2.25 | $532,557,249 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-27 | $2.25 | $532,557,249 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-28 | $2.25 | $532,557,249 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-29 | $2.25 | $532,557,249 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-30 | $2.25 | $532,557,249 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-31 | $2.25 | $532,557,249 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-01 | $2.25 | $532,557,249 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-02 | $2.25 | $532,557,249 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-03 | $2.25 | $532,557,249 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-04 | $2.25 | $532,557,249 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-05 | $2.25 | $532,557,249 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-06 | $2.25 | $532,557,249 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-07 | $2.25 | $532,557,249 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-08 | $2.25 | $532,557,249 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-09 | $2.25 | $532,557,249 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-10 | $2.22 | $540,038,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-11 | $2.22 | $540,038,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-12 | $2.22 | $540,038,000 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-13 | $2.22 | $540,038,000 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-14 | $2.22 | $540,038,000 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-15 | $2.22 | $540,038,000 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-16 | $2.22 | $540,038,000 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-17 | $2.22 | $540,038,000 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-18 | $2.22 | $540,038,000 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-19 | $2.22 | $540,038,000 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-20 | $2.22 | $540,038,000 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-21 | $2.22 | $540,038,000 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-22 | $2.22 | $540,038,000 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-23 | $2.22 | $540,038,000 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-24 | $2.22 | $540,038,000 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-25 | $2.20 | $532,232,999 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-26 | $2.20 | $532,232,999 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-27 | $2.20 | $532,232,999 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-28 | $2.20 | $532,232,999 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-29 | $2.20 | $532,232,999 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-30 | $2.20 | $532,232,999 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-01 | $2.20 | $532,232,999 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-02 | $2.20 | $532,232,999 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-03 | $2.20 | $532,232,999 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-04 | $2.20 | $532,232,999 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-05 | $2.20 | $532,232,999 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-06 | $2.20 | $532,232,999 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-07 | $2.20 | $532,230,110 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-08 | $2.20 | $532,232,999 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-09 | $2.20 | $532,232,999 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-10 | $2.20 | $532,232,999 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-11 | $2.20 | $532,232,999 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-12 | $2.20 | $532,232,999 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-13 | $2.20 | $532,232,999 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-14 | $2.18 | $531,110,778 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-15 | $2.18 | $531,110,778 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-16 | $2.18 | $531,110,778 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-17 | $2.18 | $531,110,778 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-18 | $2.18 | $531,110,778 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-19 | $2.18 | $531,110,778 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-20 | $2.18 | $531,110,778 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-21 | $2.18 | $531,110,778 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-22 | $2.18 | $531,110,778 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-23 | $2.18 | $531,110,778 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-24 | $2.18 | $531,110,778 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-25 | $2.18 | $531,110,778 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-26 | $2.18 | $531,110,778 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-27 | $2.18 | $531,110,778 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-28 | $2.18 | $531,110,778 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-29 | $2.18 | $531,110,778 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-30 | $2.18 | $531,110,778 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-31 | $2.18 | $531,110,778 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-11-01 | $2.18 | $531,110,778 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-11-02 | $2.18 | $531,110,778 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-11-03 | $2.18 | $531,110,778 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-11-04 | $2.18 | $531,110,778 | 5 / 6 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 9 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 9, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.