Heron Therapeutics, Inc. (HRTX)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
$0.34+4.21%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · HRTX
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
A comparable price-assumption read is not available for this company.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Worth watching into the next print: this name is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate) and operates in a high-miss-rate industry. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 399 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
HRTX — earnings in line
Dated 2026-08-10
and Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto is intended to be furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing.
Why it matters: Falling below this level may show money problems. It could hurt how the company runs.
Worry ifCash reserves may be below $40 million in the next quarterly update.
Less concerning ifCash reserves are above $40 million. This shows the company is financially stable.
Why it matters: Better adjusted EBITDA shows the company is managing costs well. It also means the company is working more efficiently.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA reaches $5 million or more in Q3 2026.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA remains at or below $3 million in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Better operating income is key for long-term success. A good trend can help investor trust.
Supportive ifOperating income was more than -$4.8 million.
Worry ifOperating income was worse than -$4.8 million.
Why it matters: Winning the appeal could keep CINVANTI safe from generic competition. This would help future revenues.
Supportive ifCourt ruling in favor of Heron on the CINVANTI patent appeal.
Worry ifThe court supports the earlier decision. This lets generics enter the market.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$236 on $10,000 · ±2.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $589 loss on $10,000 · 5.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $7,981 loss on $10,000 · 79.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: How the company responds to the delisting notice will affect investor trust and stock price.
Worry ifHeron meets Nasdaq listing rules again.
Less concerning ifHeron does not meet Nasdaq requirements and may be delisted.
Why it matters: If revenue growth is below this level, it shows management is facing challenges.
Worry ifIf Q3 2026 revenue is below $40 million, it shows ongoing struggles.
Less concerning ifIf Q3 2026 revenue is above $40 million, it shows recovery and growth.
Why it matters: Revenue performance will indicate if Heron is on track to meet its guidance for the year.
Watch forIn Q2 2026, total net revenue is over $45 million. This shows recovery.
Also watch forIn Q2 2026, total net revenue is below $30 million. This shows ongoing struggles.
Why it matters: Hitting this revenue target shows sales are recovering. It also means management's plans are working.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue is over $45 million. This shows strong sales performance.
Worry ifQ3 revenue is under $40 million. This suggests sales are still facing challenges.
Why it matters: The result of this lawsuit may change Heron's market position and revenue from CINVANTI.
Worry ifHeron gets a good ruling in the lawsuit.
Less concerning ifA ruling against Heron lets Slayback make a generic CINVANTI.
Why it matters: If revenue growth is below 10%, it shows ongoing challenges in meeting targets. This could signal deeper issues in the business.
Worry ifQ3 2026 total net revenue growth below 10% compared to Q2 2026.
Less concerning ifQ3 2026 total net revenue growth of 10% or more compared to Q2 2026.