Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
HSBC HOLDINGS PLC (HSBC)
NYSEFinancialsBanks - DiversifiedSnapshot 2026-11-04
$88.06-1.47%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsBanks - DiversifiedSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
9.52 → 9.33 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 2 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 2 to 2; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for HSBC yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
strategic focus on core markets including possible sale of Turkish business | The bank is focusing on core markets by reviewing non-core assets like its Turkish business. | Improving | failure to progress on core market focus or asset sales | Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a bank-sector exposure, but the evidence is too thin to classify HSBC as a durable compounder, turnaround, or other clear business type. The long-term thesis state is insufficient, and the overall evidence confidence is low.
The valuation model has high confidence, but the snapshot gives no valuation level or peer comparison, so whether HSBC looks cheap, fair, or expensive is unclear. No fragility gates fired, and the snapshot says the current regime does not concentrate fragility.
Near term, the stated miss probability is low, but HSBC and its industry peers have recently missed earnings and are on a run of consecutive misses. The evidence gives no company-specific results or management execution details, so the multi-year fundamental path is hard to assess.
Near term, rate policy matters: the snapshot says Fed rate cuts from the current level could weigh on Financials. Sector momentum also depends on whether JPM, BAC, and WFC keep beating and guiding higher, or instead miss and guide lower.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, HSBC’s thesis remains unclear on this evidence, with recent earnings misses and sector conditions as the main watch points. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Analysts expect earnings per share to grow from $8.8 in 2026 to $9.89 in 2027. |
| Under Pressure |
| EPS falls below $8.8 in FY26 or fails to reach $9.89 in FY27 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
strengthen investment banking in Middle East and Europe | HSBC is strengthening its investment banking in the Middle East and restricting risky loans. | Intact | decline in European investment banking fees below 2021 first half levels | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
restrict loans to risky private credit funds | HSBC is strengthening its investment banking in the Middle East and restricting risky loans. | Intact | loosening of loan restrictions to risky credit funds | Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$9.89 → $9.33 · observed estimates
$78.33B → $78.47B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $9.89 | $78,325,516,410 | 1 / 12 |
| 2026-07-25 | $9.30 | $77,463,355,514 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-07-26 | $9.89 | $78,396,242,030 | 1 / 12 |
| 2026-07-27 | $9.32 | $77,678,283,707 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-07-28 | $9.89 | $78,396,258,890 | 1 / 12 |
| 2026-07-29 | $9.89 | $78,396,258,890 | 1 / 12 |
| 2026-07-30 | $9.89 | $78,396,258,890 | 1 / 12 |
| 2026-07-31 | $9.89 | $78,575,736,970 | 1 / 11 |
| 2026-08-01 | $9.32 | $77,739,228,151 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-08-02 | $9.89 | $78,575,736,970 | 1 / 11 |
| 2026-08-03 | $9.32 | $77,739,228,151 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-08-04 | $9.89 | $78,575,736,970 | 1 / 11 |
| 2026-08-05 | $9.80 | $78,734,776,250 | 1 / 11 |
| 2026-08-06 | $9.80 | $78,734,776,250 | 1 / 11 |
| 2026-08-07 | $9.37 | $78,352,059,599 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-08-08 | $9.47 | $79,483,579,420 | 2 / 11 |
| 2026-08-09 | $9.47 | $79,483,579,420 | 2 / 11 |
| 2026-08-10 | $9.47 | $79,483,579,420 | 2 / 11 |
| 2026-08-12 | $9.47 | $79,483,579,420 | 2 / 11 |
| 2026-08-13 | $9.37 | $78,352,059,599 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-08-14 | $9.37 | $78,352,059,599 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-08-15 | $9.37 | $78,352,059,599 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-08-16 | $9.37 | $78,352,059,599 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-08-17 | $9.37 | $78,352,059,599 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-08-18 | $9.37 | $78,352,059,599 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-08-19 | $9.37 | $78,352,059,599 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-08-20 | $9.39 | $78,459,298,399 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-08-21 | $9.39 | $78,459,298,399 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-08-22 | $9.39 | $78,459,298,399 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-08-23 | $9.39 | $78,459,298,399 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-08-24 | $9.39 | $78,459,298,399 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-08-25 | $9.39 | $78,459,298,399 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-08-26 | $9.39 | $78,459,298,399 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-08-27 | $9.39 | $78,459,298,399 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-08-28 | $9.39 | $78,459,298,399 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-08-29 | $9.39 | $78,459,298,399 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-08-30 | $9.39 | $78,459,298,399 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-08-31 | $9.39 | $78,459,298,399 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-09-01 | $9.39 | $78,459,298,399 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-09-02 | $9.39 | $78,459,298,399 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-09-03 | $9.39 | $78,459,298,399 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-09-04 | $9.39 | $78,459,298,399 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-09-05 | $9.39 | $78,459,298,399 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-09-06 | $9.39 | $78,459,298,399 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-09-07 | $9.39 | $78,459,298,399 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-09-08 | $9.39 | $78,459,298,399 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-09-09 | $9.39 | $78,459,298,399 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-09-10 | $9.39 | $78,459,298,399 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-09-11 | $9.39 | $78,459,298,399 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-09-12 | $9.39 | $78,459,298,399 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-09-13 | $9.39 | $78,459,298,399 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-09-14 | $9.39 | $78,459,298,399 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-09-15 | $9.41 | $78,620,559,599 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-09-16 | $9.41 | $78,620,559,599 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-09-17 | $9.41 | $78,620,559,599 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-09-18 | $9.41 | $78,620,559,599 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-09-19 | $9.41 | $78,620,559,599 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-09-20 | $9.41 | $78,620,559,599 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-09-21 | $9.41 | $78,620,559,599 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-09-22 | $9.41 | $78,620,559,599 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-09-23 | $9.41 | $78,620,559,599 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-09-24 | $9.41 | $78,620,559,599 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-09-25 | $9.41 | $78,620,559,599 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-09-26 | $9.41 | $78,620,559,599 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-09-27 | $9.41 | $78,620,559,599 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-09-28 | $9.41 | $78,620,559,599 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-09-29 | $9.52 | $78,711,113,042 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-09-30 | $9.52 | $78,711,113,042 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-10-01 | $9.52 | $78,711,113,042 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-10-02 | $9.52 | $78,711,113,042 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-10-03 | $9.52 | $78,711,113,042 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-10-04 | $9.52 | $78,711,113,042 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-10-05 | $9.52 | $78,711,113,042 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-10-06 | $9.53 | $78,772,113,042 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-10-07 | $9.53 | $78,772,113,042 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-10-08 | $9.53 | $78,772,113,042 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-10-09 | $9.53 | $78,779,821,775 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-10-10 | $9.53 | $78,779,821,775 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-10-11 | $9.53 | $78,802,323,275 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-10-12 | $9.53 | $78,802,323,275 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-10-13 | $9.52 | $78,862,020,451 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-10-14 | $9.53 | $78,862,020,451 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-10-15 | $9.52 | $78,862,020,451 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-10-16 | $9.52 | $78,861,233,562 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-10-17 | $9.52 | $78,861,233,562 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-10-18 | $9.50 | $78,897,005,784 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-10-19 | $9.50 | $78,897,005,784 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-10-20 | $9.50 | $78,897,005,784 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-10-21 | $9.49 | $78,899,915,878 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-10-22 | $9.49 | $78,899,915,878 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-10-23 | $9.49 | $78,899,915,878 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-10-24 | $9.53 | $79,043,910,930 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-10-25 | $9.53 | $79,043,910,930 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-10-26 | $9.53 | $79,043,910,930 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-10-27 | $9.53 | $79,043,910,930 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-10-28 | $9.37 | $78,430,979,481 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-10-29 | $9.36 | $78,438,972,425 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-10-30 | $9.31 | $78,365,916,870 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-10-31 | $9.34 | $78,474,026,508 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-11-01 | $9.34 | $78,474,026,508 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-11-02 | $9.34 | $78,474,026,508 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-11-03 | $9.34 | $78,474,026,508 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-11-04 | $9.33 | $78,474,026,508 | 2 / 7 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.