Host Hotels & Resorts (HST)
NASDAQReal EstateReit - Hotel & MotelSnapshot 2026-07-07
$23.35+0.43%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 12 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $23.35. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Above average on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $23 HST trades at 8.9× p/ffo, below its 16× p/ffo peer median. Our $27 fair value sits above the price. We hold it with medium confidence: the peer anchor overstates how cheap it looks. Analysts target $23–$27. Note: our $27 fair value sits above the entire analyst range ($23–$27). Not investment advice.
$23.00 – $27.00 (median $24.63) · 8 analysts · as of 2026-06-17
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $24.63 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $21.14 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $20.91 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| ddm gordon | 12M | $9.23 | — | — | TTM | high |
| graham number | 12M | $20.58 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 12M | $21.60 | 16.2 | 1.33 | Mgmt | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $28.80 | 21.5 | 1.34 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FFO | 12M | $42.25 | 16.2 | 2.61 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $70.99 | 7.9 | 8.94 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $14.18 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $31.44 | 16.6 | 1.90 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $32.89 | 16.2 | 2.03 | Triangulated | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 3Y | $5.94 | 16.2 | 0.37 | Mgmt(prov.) | low |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $28.43 | 21.5 | 1.32 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | low |
| Peer P/FFO | 3Y | $51.91 | 16.2 | 3.21 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | low |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $70.14 | 7.9 | 8.84 | guidance | low |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $8.65 | 16.6 | 0.52 | Analyst | low |
| Mgmt guidance | 5Y | $2.51 | 16.2 | 0.16 | Mgmt(prov.) | low |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $28.18 | 21.5 | 1.31 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | low |
| Peer P/FFO | 5Y | $59.55 | 16.2 | 3.68 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | low |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $69.59 | 7.9 | 8.77 | guidance | low |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $3.66 | 16.6 | 0.22 | Analyst | low |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.