Hershey Company (The) (HSY)
NYSEConsumer StaplesFood ConfectionersSnapshot 2026-09-04
$173.15-1.09%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer StaplesFood ConfectionersSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · HSY
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 11 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $173 HSY trades at 24× p/e — 1.9× the 13× p/e peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $123 fair value is low-confidence here. Analysts target $185–$255. Note: our $123 fair value sits below the entire analyst range ($185–$255). Even valued only for durable growth at sustainable margins, it's worth about $194 — above today's price, so the premium reflects that growth case, not pure multiple expansion. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $200.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $139.97 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $166.41 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| graham number | 12M | $58.19 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Below average on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
$185.00 – $255.00 (median $200.00) · 12 analysts · as of 2026-08-21
Flags: expensive valuation, weak execution quality. Capped at elevated by the Mania regime.
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| 12M |
| $72.27 |
| 8.5 |
| 11.05 |
| TTM |
| high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $102.51 | 11.7 | 8.80 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $91.07 | 12.5 | 7.26 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $40.88 | 0.7 | 55.27 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $335.68 | 46.2 | 7.26 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $41.02 | — | — | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $94.93 | 12.5 | 7.57 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $119.95 | 11.7 | 10.29 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $129.92 | 12.5 | 10.36 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $44.36 | 0.7 | 59.97 | Analyst | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $478.91 | 46.2 | 10.36 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $133.19 | 11.7 | 11.43 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $137.00 | 12.5 | 10.92 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $46.78 | 0.7 | 63.24 | Analyst | medium |
| PEG | 5Y | $505.02 | 46.2 | 10.92 | Analyst | medium |