Hershey Company (The) (HSY)
NYSEConsumer StaplesConfectionersSnapshot 2026-07-07
$175.95-0.88%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 12 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $175.95. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $176 HSY trades at 27× p/e — 2.1× the 13× p/e peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $130 fair value is low-confidence here. Analysts target $185–$255. Note: our $130 fair value sits below the entire analyst range ($185–$255). The flat-multiple read looks rich, but earnings are inflecting up — trailing growth is accelerating and forward estimates confirm — so we've softened our read rather than brand an accelerating name expensive. Even valued only for durable growth at sustainable margins, it's worth about $199 — above today's price, so the premium reflects that growth case, not pure multiple expansion. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $222.50 | — | — | Analyst | medium |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $76.24 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | medium |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $63.86 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | medium |
| graham number | 12M | $56.39 | — | — | TTM | medium |
| Mgmt guidance |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Below average on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
$185.00 – $255.00 (median $222.50) · 8 analysts · as of 2026-05-27
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| 12M |
| $76.93 |
| 13.0 |
| 5.91 |
| Mgmt |
| medium |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $78.47 | 10.1 | 9.73 | TTM | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $88.93 | 12.5 | 7.09 | TTM | medium |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $85.59 | 13.0 | 6.57 | TTM | medium |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $48.76 | 0.9 | 54.49 | TTM | medium |
| PEG | 12M | $228.96 | 34.8 | 6.57 | TTM | medium |
| residual income | 12M | $39.13 | — | — | TTM | medium |
| triangulated | 12M | $88.52 | 13.0 | 6.79 | Triangulated | medium |
| Mgmt guidance | 3Y | $176.45 | 13.0 | 13.54 | Mgmt(prov.) | low |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $74.11 | 12.5 | 5.91 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | low |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $135.95 | 13.0 | 10.44 | Analyst | low |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $53.98 | 0.9 | 60.32 | Analyst | low |
| PEG | 3Y | $363.66 | 34.8 | 10.44 | Analyst | low |
| Mgmt guidance | 5Y | $306.89 | 13.0 | 23.56 | Mgmt(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $65.63 | 12.5 | 5.23 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $145.27 | 13.0 | 11.15 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $57.68 | 0.9 | 64.45 | Analyst | medium |
| PEG | 5Y | $388.60 | 34.8 | 11.15 | Analyst | medium |