Hershey Company (The) (HSY)
NYSEConsumer StaplesFood ConfectionersSnapshot 2026-09-04
$173.15-1.09%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer StaplesFood ConfectionersSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · HSY
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 40.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 2.7% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 38.0 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 1 industry peers
HSY — CFO transition
Dated 2026-09-02
CFO — Dave Hulays: The CFO role was filled by an internal promotion (Hulays) while the outgoing CFO (Voskuil) transitions to a strategic role before retiring, indicating an orderly succession rather than a sudden loss of leadership.
Why it matters: Mitchell Arends may make the supply chain work better. This could help the company earn more money.
Supportive ifThe company saw good changes in supply chain numbers within six months of Arends starting.
Worry ifNo improvement or negative trends in supply chain metrics after six months.
Why it matters: The acquisition is expected to boost sales. Its contribution will show if the strategy works.
Supportive ifLesserEvil's sales grew more than 20% in Q2 2026.
Worry ifSales growth from LesserEvil is less than 20% in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Higher advertising costs can lower profit margins. This shows more competition.
Worry ifAdvertising costs rose more than 5% from last year.
Less concerning ifAdvertising expenses increase less than or equal to 5%.
Why it matters: A drop in gross margin may mean costs are rising. It can hurt profits.
Worry ifQ2 gross margin reported below 39%.
Less concerning ifQ2 gross margin reported above 40%.
Why it matters: Higher costs for materials may hurt profits and reduce margins.
Worry ifIf commodity costs stay the same or go down, margins may improve.
Less concerning ifIf commodity costs go up a lot, it may hurt gross margins.
Why it matters: Earnings within this range would confirm Hershey's financial health and growth trajectory. It signals effective cost management.
Supportive ifReported EPS for Q2 falls within the $7.77 to $8.19 range.
Worry ifReported EPS for Q2 is below $7.77.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show how well the company is growing sales and managing costs.
Watch forEarnings report shows a profit margin above 15%.
Also watch forEarnings report shows a profit margin below 10%.
Why it matters: A stable tax rate supports Hershey's profit margins. Significant changes could impact earnings forecasts.
Watch forEffective tax rate remains between 25% and 27% for Q2.
Also watch forEffective tax rate exceeds 27% in Q2.
Why it matters: Mitchell Arends can help make things run better and save money.
Supportive ifBetter supply chain numbers mean lower costs and faster deliveries.
Worry ifOngoing supply chain problems or higher costs are a concern.
Why it matters: A new supply chain leader may help the company work better and grow.
Supportive ifMitchell Arends will put in place important supply chain changes by Q1 2027.
Worry ifDelays or issues arise in the supply chain transition process.
Why it matters: Spending above this amount may change how money is used. It could affect profits.
Worry ifSpending reported above $475 million for 2026.
Less concerning ifSpending is between $425 million and $475 million.
Why it matters: This shows sales are slowing down. This will affect overall growth.
Worry ifQ3 organic net sales growth reported below 3%.
Less concerning ifQ3 organic net sales growth reported above 3%.
Why it matters: A lower tax rate can boost net income. This can help earnings growth.
Supportive ifEffective tax rate reported below 25%.
Worry ifEffective tax rate reported above 27%.
Why it matters: Higher spending may mean strong growth plans. But it could also show money problems.
Watch forCapital spending is over $475 million.
Also watch forCapital spending is under $425 million.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$126 on $10,000 · ±1.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $278 loss on $10,000 · 2.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,794 loss on $10,000 · 27.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.