Reading HTO? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track HTO free→Reading HTO? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track HTO free→NASDAQUtilitiesUtilities - Regulated WaterSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is also neutral. Management's recent track record has been steady, while risk is moderate and the sector backdrop presents a headwind. Compared with sector peers, HTO trades below typical levels. Peer multiples imply a price roughly in line with where it trades (about fair); the read is fair. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $57.06. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $57 HTO trades at 19× p/e, in line with its 19× p/e peer median. Our $57 fair value reflects that, high confidence. Analysts: $60–$64. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 1% below a flat-multiple fair value, in line with our forecast of about 6%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Utilities names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1203).
Over the trailing year it converted 2.34x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Utilities names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1075).
Most sensitive to real (inflation-adjusted) rates and long-term interest rates.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, the broad stock market, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.71 → $0.69 (-2.1% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 4 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 71% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$115.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$242.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,619.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: EPS guidance is key for investor confidence. A revision could change outlook.
Confirms one read:Management confirms EPS guidance of $3.08-$3.18 during the Q2 earnings call.
Confirms the other:Management lowers EPS guidance to below $3.08 during the Q2 earnings call.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for HTO yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On June 10, 2026, Kristen Johnson and the Company mutually agreed that Ms. Johnson will separate from the Company, effective July 3, 2026. The Company determined the separation to be 'without cause' as defined in Ms. Johnson’s employment agreement and will pay Ms. Johnson the severance amount provided under such employment agreement subject to the…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$60.00 – $64.00 (median $61.00) · 5 analysts · as of 2026-05-11
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Water Utilities.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
HTO H2O America | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 31 of 100 | fair | moderate |
AWK American Water Works | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 51 of 100 | full | moderate |
WTRG Essential Utilities | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 69 of 100 | fair | moderate |
AWR American States Water Company | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 77 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
CWT California Water Service Group | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 3 of 100 | full | moderate |
Not enough signal yet.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLU
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Continue to uphold the EPS guidance range of $3.08 to $3.18 for the fiscal year 2026.
Focus on strategies to enhance revenue growth in upcoming quarters.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is critical for H2O America. It shows the company's health.
Confirms one read:Revenue growth reported above 5% year over year in Q2 earnings.
Confirms the other:Revenue growth reported below 2% year over year in Q2 earnings.
Why it matters: High unemployment claims can show a weak economy. This may impact H2O America's customers.
Confirms:Claims drop below 200,000 for the week.
Disproves:Claims rise above 300,000 for the week.
Why it matters: Sector performance can shift based on inflation data. This affects H2O America.
Confirms one read:The utilities sector gets better after the June 10 CPI report.
Confirms the other:The utilities sector keeps declining after the June 10 CPI report.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show how well H2O America is performing. It is key for understanding future growth.
Confirms one read:Earnings per share (EPS) beats analyst expectations by more than 10%.
Confirms the other:EPS falls short of analyst expectations by more than 10%.
Why it matters: If utility sector revenue growth speeds up, it could help H2O America. It shows the market is improving.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth moves back toward 5% or higher.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth stays below 5%.
of Form 8-K by reference . The information in Item 2.02, including the exhibit, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities under that Section, nor shall it be deemed to be incorporated by reference into any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing.