Huntsman Corp (HUN)
NYSEMaterialsChemicalsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$9.62+2.34%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsChemicalsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · HUN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -57.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 4.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 61.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name has been missing across recent quarters and has erratic recent earnings surprises. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 8 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
HUN — divestiture
Dated 2026-08-25
Regulation FD Disclosure. On August 25, 2026, the Company and Olin issued a joint press release announcing the preliminary results of the Special Meeting and the preliminary results of a special meeting of Olin’s shareholders also held on August 25, 2026. A copy of the joint press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. Based on the voting results at the Special Meeting and at the special meeting of Olin shareholders, and assuming satisfaction of al…
Why it matters: A positive change in sector revenue growth could signal a recovery for Huntsman Corp.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth turns positive after being near -1 percent for three years.
Worry ifSector revenue growth remains negative or worsens.
Why it matters: Staying within the spending range shows good financial management.
Watch forCapital spending is reported between $170 million and $180 million for the full year 2026.
Also watch forCapital spending goes over $180 million for the full year 2026.
Why it matters: This shows that management is focused on pricing and making more money. It shows the company can manage costs and increase revenue.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA for Q3 2026 is over $120 million.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA for Q3 2026 falls below $100 million.
Why it matters: Lawsuits could slow down or make the merger harder, affecting Huntsman's future.
Worry ifNo new litigation filed related to the merger by August 2026.
Less concerning ifA new lawsuit has been filed against the merger agreement.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$224 on $10,000 · ±2.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $550 loss on $10,000 · 5.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,091 loss on $10,000 · 40.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Strong revenue growth shows that pricing actions and demand recovery are working.
Supportive ifQ3 2026 revenue growth exceeds 8% year over year.
Worry ifQ3 2026 revenue growth is below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: The merger is a key growth strategy. Final approval will confirm the merger's progress.
Supportive ifThe merger can close as planned in early 2027. This is after final approvals are received.
Worry ifThe merger cannot close. This is due to delays or denials of regulatory approvals.
Why it matters: Positive free cash flow would show improved cash generation and financial health.
Supportive ifFree cash flow reported as positive in the next quarterly earnings release.
Worry ifFree cash flow remains negative in the next quarterly earnings release.
Why it matters: Higher raw material costs can hurt margins. This may affect profits, even with price changes.
Worry ifRaw material costs rise a lot, causing lower margins in Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifRaw material costs stay steady or drop. This helps improve margins.
Why it matters: Staying within this range is crucial for managing cash flow and funding operations. It shows financial discipline.
Supportive ifManagement says capital spending is between $170M and $180M.
Worry ifCapital spending is over $180M. This shows poor financial management.
Why it matters: Better profits would show that pricing strategies are working. This is important for Huntsman's growth.
Supportive ifManagement says profit margins have increased a lot due to pricing changes.
Worry ifProfit margins remain flat or decline despite pricing efforts.
Why it matters: The vote on August 25, 2026, is key for the merger's success. A positive vote could lead to synergies and growth.
Supportive ifThe stockholder vote passes with over 50% approval for the merger with Olin.
Worry ifThe stockholder vote fails to reach the required approval threshold.
Why it matters: Better free cash flow shows good cash management and efficiency. This is important for future growth and the merger.
Supportive ifFree cash flow for Q3 2026 turns positive, exceeding $10 million.
Worry ifFree cash flow for Q3 2026 remains negative, worse than -$90 million.
Why it matters: The merger will create a larger chemicals company. It is key for future growth and value.
Supportive ifThe merger will close in the first half of 2027. This will happen after getting all regulatory approvals.
Worry ifThe merger may face delays. It might not get the necessary regulatory approvals.