Hawthorn Bancshares, Inc. (HWBK)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$40.09+1.29%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · HWBK
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -6.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 10.0% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 16.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Worth watching into the next print: this name has erratic recent earnings surprises and missed its most recent quarter. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 220 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
HWBK — dividend update
Dated 2026-07-29
Other Events. On July 29, 2026 , Hawthorn Bancshares, Inc. announced that its Board of Directors approved a quarterly cash dividend of $0.21 per common share. The dividend is payable on October 1, 2026 to shareholders of record at the close of business on September 15, 2026. A copy of the press release relating to such announcement is attached to this report as Exhibit 99.2.
Why it matters: A drop in net interest margin may mean less profit as costs rise.
Worry ifNet interest margin is below 4.07%. This shows possible pressure on earnings.
Less concerning ifNet interest margin is at or above 4.07%. This shows stable profit.
Why it matters: Completing the acquisition could help Hawthorn grow its market presence and assets.
Supportive ifThe acquisition of FSC Bancshares will be done and integrated by the end of 2026.
Worry ifThe acquisition faces delays or fails to close by year-end 2026.
Why it matters: A lower efficiency ratio shows better cost control and performance. This can attract investors.
Supportive ifEfficiency ratio drops to below 60.66% in Q3 2026.
Worry ifEfficiency ratio worsens or stays above 60.66% in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: More non-performing assets may mean credit quality issues. This can hurt the bank's stability.
Worry ifNon-performing assets to total loans ratio is over 0.47%.
Less concerning ifNon-performing assets to total loans ratio stays below 0.47%.
Why it matters: An increase in the dividend would show commitment to returning value to shareholders. It reflects financial health.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of a dividend increase above $0.21 per share.
Worry ifNo increase in the dividend from the current $0.21 per share.
Why it matters: New leaders can change how a company works. Investors will watch for effects on operations.
Watch forWatch for good news or numbers after the leadership change.
Also watch forWatch for negative metrics or no updates after the leadership change.
Why it matters: Earnings results show how the company is doing. They also give hints about the future.
Watch forThe earnings report shows better results than expected and gives positive hints.
Also watch forThe earnings report shows worse results than expected and gives negative hints.
Why it matters: Continued growth in net income signals strong performance and effective management. It reflects the bank's health.
Supportive ifQ2 2026 net income reported above $6.8 million.
Worry ifQ2 2026 net income falls below $6.8 million.
Why it matters: Revenue growth trends are key for the financial sector's health. A drop could signal weakening demand.
Worry if3-year revenue growth falls below its median of 15%.
Less concerning if3-year revenue growth remains above its median.
Why it matters: A big drop in loans might show less demand or credit problems.
Worry ifLoans decrease more than 2.6% in Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifLoans stabilize or grow in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Finalizing this acquisition could expand Hawthorn's market presence and asset base. This may enhance growth prospects.
Supportive ifFSC Bancshares has been bought and is now part of the company.
Worry ifThe acquisition has delays or problems.
Why it matters: A rise in net interest margin means better profits and good asset management.
Supportive ifNet interest margin exceeds 4.16% in Q3 2026.
Worry ifIf net interest margin drops below 4.07%, it may show problems with interest income.
Why it matters: More non-performing assets may show credit quality problems that can hurt profits.
Worry ifNon-performing assets remain below 0.53% of total loans in Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifIf non-performing assets are over 0.53% of total loans, it may signal credit issues.
Why it matters: Changes in the dividend show how management uses money. They also reflect the company's financial health.
Watch forThe Board increases the quarterly cash dividend above $0.21 per share.
Also watch forThe Board decides to cut or suspend the dividend.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$96 on $10,000 · ±1.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $351 loss on $10,000 · 3.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,374 loss on $10,000 · 13.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.