Hyster-Yale, Inc. (HY)
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-09-04
$35.75+4.78%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · HY
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -67.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 5.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 73.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 63 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
HY — earnings miss
Dated 2026-03-04
with respect to the investor presentation is incorporated herein by reference. The information in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99, is furnished pursuant to
Why it matters: If the company reports a small profit, it shows recovery. This means operations are improving. It also shows that management is confident.
Supportive ifManagement will confirm the full-year profit target during the Q2 earnings call.
Worry ifManagement may lower the profit guidance or keep a loss outlook.
Why it matters: Cutting costs can help improve profit margins. This supports profits in the second half.
Supportive ifManagement reports achieving at least $20 million in cost reductions by the end of 2026.
Worry ifCost cuts are less than $20 million. This shows there are challenges in execution.
Why it matters: Going above this level would show that demand for lift trucks is recovering.
Supportive ifBookings over $700 million for Q3 2026 would show strong demand recovery.
Worry ifBookings under $680 million show a slowdown in recovery.
Why it matters: Staying within the $50-$60 million capex range shows disciplined capital allocation. This is crucial for managing cash flow.
Watch forCapex for 2026 remains within the $50-$60 million range.
Also watch forCapex is over $60 million. This may mean they are spending too much.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$201 on $10,000 · ±2.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $484 loss on $10,000 · 4.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,023 loss on $10,000 · 30.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Lower tariff costs would help improve margins and make more money.
Supportive ifTariff costs drop from $30 million in Q2 2026, showing good cost management.
Worry ifTariff costs rise above $30 million, showing pressure on margins.
Why it matters: Cutting costs will help make more money and improve cash flow.
Supportive ifManagement says they saved at least $20 million from changes in Q3.
Worry ifNo big cost savings were reported in Q3 from the changes.
Why it matters: The industrial sector is getting older. If growth speeds up, Hyster-Yale could gain.
Supportive if3-year revenue growth in the industrial sector increases back toward 10% or higher.
Worry if3-year revenue growth continues to decline or stays below 5%.
Why it matters: Exceeding this growth rate would confirm the recovery trend in demand for lift trucks.
Supportive ifQ3 2026 revenue growth exceeds 2% compared to Q2 2026.
Worry ifQ3 2026 revenue growth is 2% or lower compared to Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Lower or steady tariff costs can help margins. This may lower operating losses.
Supportive ifTariff costs decrease from current levels, improving gross margins.
Worry ifTariff costs are going up. This hurts operating margins.
Why it matters: Following capex guidance is key for growth plans. It also helps improve operations.
Supportive ifCapex in 2026 falls within the $55-$70M range.
Worry ifCapex in 2026 falls below $55M or exceeds $70M, indicating misalignment with growth plans.
Why it matters: A positive profit in Q2 would show that management is making progress this year.
Supportive ifIf Q2 profit is positive, it will be better than -$28M in Q1.
Worry ifIf Q2 profit stays negative, it shows that challenges continue.
Why it matters: Higher tariff costs could hurt margins and operating results. This would affect overall profitability and cash flow.
Worry ifIn Q3, the operating loss is over $18 million. This is due to tariff costs.
Less concerning ifIn Q3, the operating loss is under $18 million. This shows good cost management.