Intl Bancshares Corp (IBOC)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$71.91+0.52%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · IBOC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -10.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 40.6% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 51.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 219 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
IBOC — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-06
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 6, 2026, International Bancshares Corporation issued a news release announcing net income for the three and six months ended June 30, 2026. The news release, attached hereto and filed herewith as Exhibit 99, is incorporated by reference. All of the information furnished in
Why it matters: Growing dividends show that the company manages money well. It also shows they care about shareholders.
Supportive ifDividend per share increases more than 4% compared to the previous year.
Worry ifDividend growth falls below 4% year over year.
Why it matters: Changes in deposit rates can affect net interest income. This is key for keeping deposit growth.
Watch forRates paid on deposits go down. This leads to better net interest income.
Also watch forRates paid on deposits go up. This hurts net interest income.
Why it matters: Updates on AI initiatives could show how IBC plans to improve efficiency and cost controls. This is key for long-term growth.
Supportive ifManagement has a new AI project. It aims to make things work better.
Worry ifThere are no updates or delays in AI projects. This shows no progress.
Why it matters: Better cost controls can help make more money. Investors will look for signs of good management.
Supportive ifCost-to-income ratio improves by 3% or more in Q2 2026.
Worry ifThe cost-to-income ratio gets worse or stays the same in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Higher provisions may mean more credit risk, which can hurt future earnings.
Worry ifProvision for credit loss expense increases more than the current rate of growth in the loan portfolio.
Less concerning ifThe provision for credit loss expense stays the same or goes down.
Why it matters: Successful AI projects can improve efficiency. They can also help control costs.
Supportive ifManagement says AI projects help cut costs.
Worry ifNo improvements from AI projects were reported. This shows ongoing cost challenges.
Why it matters: Slower growth may mean problems in keeping strong financial results. Investors watch growth closely.
Worry ifQ2 net income growth below 5% compared to Q2 2025.
Less concerning ifQ2 net income growth at or above 5% compared to Q2 2025.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows good money management. It also shows care for shareholders.
Supportive ifThe cash dividend remains at $0.73 per share for the next declaration.
Worry ifThe cash dividend is cut below $0.73 per share in the next announcement.
Why it matters: An increase shows that the company manages its money well. It also shows a promise to give money back to shareholders.
Supportive ifDividend declared above $0.73 per share for Q3 2026.
Worry ifDividend remains at or below $0.73 per share for Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Slower deposit growth may show problems in attracting and keeping customer funds.
Worry ifTotal deposits grow less than 2.4% compared to Q3 2025.
Less concerning ifTotal deposits grow more than 2.4% compared to Q3 2025.
Why it matters: Changes in interest expenses affect net income and profitability. It shows how well the bank manages costs.
Worry ifInterest expense increases more than 5% compared to Q1 2026.
Less concerning ifInterest expense decreases or stays the same compared to Q1 2026.
Why it matters: If sector revenue growth falls, it may signal broader challenges. This affects IBOC's performance.
Worry ifSector revenue growth drops below 13% year over year.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth remains above 13% year over year.
Why it matters: Slower loan growth could indicate weakening demand or tighter credit conditions. This may impact future earnings.
Worry ifTotal net loans grow less than 4.3% year over year in Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifTotal net loans grow at 4.3% or more year over year in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: A big drop in net income shows weaker financial performance. This may hurt investor confidence.
Worry ifQ3 net income drops more than 4.3% compared to Q3 2025.
Less concerning ifQ3 net income remains stable or grows compared to Q3 2025.
Why it matters: Slower asset growth may show problems with loan demand or keeping deposits.
Worry ifTotal assets grow less than 2.5% compared to Q3 2025.
Less concerning ifTotal assets grow more than 2.5% compared to Q3 2025.
Why it matters: More provisions may mean more loan defaults. This could hurt how much money is made.
Worry ifProvision for credit losses goes up a lot compared to last quarter.
Less concerning ifProvision for credit losses goes down or stays the same.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$81 on $10,000 · ±0.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $202 loss on $10,000 · 2.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,140 loss on $10,000 · 11.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.