Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Installed Building Products, Inc. (IBP)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryResidential ConstructionSnapshot 2026-11-04
$235.42+10.81%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryResidential ConstructionSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
11.43 → 10.74 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 8 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 8; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for IBP yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Acquisition adds $12 million annual revenue | A primary condition in Installed Building Products, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=12 million USD annual revenue. | Intact | acquisition revenue contribution falls below $10 million annually | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
IBP is a business with a durable premium to peers, supported by progress in commercial sales and other revenue. Its multi-year view is intact, though management execution is rated volatile and overall risk is elevated.
The valuation is expensive versus peers, with a durable premium and an expectations gap of 0.32. The evidence does not specify exactly which growth assumptions the market has priced in, so the extent of those assumptions is unclear.
Near-term results show higher gross profit and operating income in Q2 than Q1, while commercial same-branch sales continued to grow at a slightly slower rate. Acquisition progress is partial, with about $59 million of acquired annual revenue reported year to date against management’s at least $100 million 2026 goal. The near-term miss risk is described as low, but recent peer misses and a downward trend in earnings surprises remain risks.
The multi-year thesis depends in part on progress toward the 2026 acquisition goal and continued growth in commercial and other revenue. Near term, a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from DHI, PHM, and LEN would support the sector backdrop; weakness from those companies could remove that support.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, IBP’s operating progress supports an intact long-term thesis, but its expensive valuation makes delivery and sector conditions important swing factors. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| The company pays a $0.39 quarterly dividend. |
| Intact |
| dividend falls below $0.35 per share quarterly |
Dividend per share: $0.39 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=$0.39 per share quarterly dividend. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 6, 20260.39 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Company revenue grows about 3% next year | Analysts expect about 3% revenue growth next year. | Under Pressure | revenue growth falls below 1% YoY in FY26 | Revenue growth: 2.3% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=3% YoY revenue growth. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 20262.301723 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Share repurchase program continues with $425 million available | A supporting condition in Installed Building Products, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is repurchase at least $50 million in shares. | Intact | repurchases fall below $40 million in next 4 quarters | Required source inputs unavailable Cannot calculate Share repurchases from the available matching source inputs. Missing inputs are not treated as zero. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$11.19 → $10.74 · observed estimates
$3.08B → $3.05B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $11.19 | $3,075,926,720 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-07-25 | $11.25 | $3,092,112,474 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-07-26 | $11.19 | $3,075,926,720 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-07-27 | $11.25 | $3,092,112,474 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-07-28 | $11.19 | $3,075,926,720 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-07-29 | $11.25 | $3,092,112,474 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-07-30 | $11.25 | $3,092,112,474 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-07-31 | $11.19 | $3,075,926,720 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-08-01 | $11.21 | $3,089,114,474 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-02 | $11.19 | $3,073,131,650 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-08-03 | $11.15 | $3,073,159,340 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-08-04 | $11.15 | $3,073,159,340 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-08-05 | $11.15 | $3,073,159,340 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-08-06 | $11.15 | $3,073,159,340 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-08-07 | $11.21 | $3,089,114,474 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-08 | $11.21 | $3,089,114,474 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-09 | $11.23 | $3,089,822,650 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-08-10 | $11.21 | $3,089,114,474 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-12 | $11.39 | $3,108,437,000 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-08-13 | $11.39 | $3,108,437,000 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-08-14 | $11.21 | $3,089,114,474 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-15 | $11.21 | $3,089,114,474 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-16 | $11.21 | $3,089,114,474 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-17 | $11.21 | $3,089,114,474 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-18 | $11.21 | $3,089,114,474 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-19 | $11.21 | $3,089,114,474 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-20 | $11.47 | $3,127,295,663 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-21 | $11.47 | $3,127,295,663 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-22 | $11.47 | $3,127,295,663 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-23 | $11.47 | $3,127,295,663 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-24 | $11.47 | $3,127,295,663 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-25 | $11.47 | $3,127,295,663 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-26 | $11.47 | $3,127,295,663 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-27 | $11.47 | $3,127,295,663 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-28 | $11.47 | $3,127,295,663 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-29 | $11.47 | $3,127,295,663 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-30 | $11.47 | $3,127,295,663 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-31 | $11.47 | $3,127,295,663 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-01 | $11.47 | $3,127,295,663 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-02 | $11.47 | $3,127,295,663 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-03 | $11.47 | $3,127,295,663 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-04 | $11.47 | $3,127,295,663 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-05 | $11.47 | $3,127,295,663 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-06 | $11.47 | $3,127,295,663 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-07 | $11.47 | $3,127,295,663 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-08 | $11.47 | $3,127,295,663 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-09 | $11.47 | $3,127,295,663 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-10 | $11.47 | $3,127,295,663 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-11 | $11.47 | $3,127,295,663 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-12 | $11.46 | $3,125,962,330 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-13 | $11.46 | $3,125,962,330 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-14 | $11.46 | $3,125,962,330 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-15 | $11.46 | $3,125,958,215 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-16 | $11.48 | $3,127,576,814 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-17 | $11.48 | $3,127,576,814 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-09-18 | $11.48 | $3,127,576,814 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-09-19 | $11.48 | $3,127,576,814 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-09-20 | $11.48 | $3,127,540,830 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-09-21 | $11.48 | $3,127,540,830 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-09-22 | $11.48 | $3,127,540,830 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-23 | $11.48 | $3,127,540,830 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-24 | $11.48 | $3,127,540,830 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-25 | $11.48 | $3,127,540,830 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-26 | $11.43 | $3,121,486,983 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-27 | $11.43 | $3,121,486,983 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-28 | $11.43 | $3,121,486,983 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-29 | $11.43 | $3,121,486,983 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-30 | $11.43 | $3,121,486,983 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-01 | $11.43 | $3,121,486,983 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-02 | $11.43 | $3,121,486,983 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-03 | $11.43 | $3,121,486,983 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-04 | $11.43 | $3,121,486,983 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-05 | $11.43 | $3,121,486,983 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-06 | $11.43 | $3,121,486,983 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-07 | $11.45 | $3,126,480,770 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-08 | $11.41 | $3,121,073,627 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-09 | $11.18 | $3,097,645,056 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-10 | $11.18 | $3,097,645,056 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-11 | $11.18 | $3,097,645,056 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-12 | $11.18 | $3,097,645,056 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-13 | $11.05 | $3,090,195,127 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-14 | $11.05 | $3,090,195,127 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-15 | $10.99 | $3,078,528,691 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-16 | $10.89 | $3,069,480,703 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-17 | $10.89 | $3,069,480,703 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-18 | $10.87 | $3,067,299,831 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-19 | $10.87 | $3,067,299,831 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-20 | $10.87 | $3,067,299,831 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-21 | $10.84 | $3,062,517,117 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-22 | $10.78 | $3,054,474,260 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-23 | $10.78 | $3,054,474,260 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-24 | $10.78 | $3,054,474,260 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-25 | $10.78 | $3,054,474,260 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-26 | $10.72 | $3,049,688,546 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-27 | $10.72 | $3,049,688,546 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-28 | $10.74 | $3,048,586,499 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-29 | $10.74 | $3,048,586,499 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-30 | $10.74 | $3,048,586,499 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-31 | $10.74 | $3,048,586,499 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-11-01 | $10.74 | $3,048,586,499 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-11-02 | $10.74 | $3,048,586,499 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-11-03 | $10.74 | $3,048,573,792 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-11-04 | $10.74 | $3,048,573,792 | 8 / 10 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 12 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 5 recorded
0 raises · 4 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.