ICF International, Inc. (ICFI)
NASDAQIndustrialsConsulting ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$96.91-0.76%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsConsulting ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ICFI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -12.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 9.2% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 21.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 6 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ICFI — dividend update
Dated 2026-11-05
Other Events On November 5, 2026, the Company's Board of Directors declared a quarterly dividend in an amount equal to $0.14 per share. This quarterly cash dividend will be paid on January 8, 2027, to stockholders of record as of the close of business on December 4, 2026. The cash dividend policy and the payment of future cash dividends under that policy will be made at the discretion of the Company's Board of Directors and will depend on earnings, operating and financial conditions, capital…
Why it matters: Management said year-over-year growth would begin in Q3. Results test that claim and the 2026 growth plan.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue is higher than the $476.2 million reported in Q3 2025, with full-year revenue guidance still at $1.89 billion to $1.96 billion.
Worry ifQ3 revenue is $476.2 million or less, or management cuts its 2026 revenue guidance to below $1.89 billion.
Why it matters: The board declared the same dividend in Q1 and Q2. Another $0.14 payment would show that this capital return continues.
Supportive ifThe board declares a quarterly dividend of at least $0.14 per share.
Worry ifThe board cuts the quarterly dividend below $0.14 per share or does not declare one.
Why it matters: Federal revenue was down 9.5% year over year in Q2, but rose from Q1. A further rise would show progress in this key market.
Supportive ifQ3 U.S. federal revenue exceeds Q2's $184.9 million.
Worry ifQ3 U.S. federal revenue is below $184.9 million, or falls more than 9.5% year over year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$103 on $10,000 · ±1.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $364 loss on $10,000 · 3.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,816 loss on $10,000 · 38.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.