ICF International, Inc. (ICFI)
NASDAQIndustrialsConsulting ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$88.00-2.22%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsConsulting ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ICFI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -21.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 8.0% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 29.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 9 industry peers
ICFI — dividend update
Dated 2026-08-06
Other Events On August 6, 2026, the Company's Board of Directors declared a quarterly dividend in an amount equal to $0.14 per share. This quarterly cash dividend will be paid on October 9, 2026, to stockholders of record as of the close of business on September 4, 2026. The cash dividend policy and the payment of future cash dividends under that policy will be made at the discretion of the Company's Board of Directors and will depend on earnings, operating and financial conditions, capital r…
Why it matters: If revenue growth picks up, it could signal a positive shift for ICF International. This would help support its position in a maturing sector.
Supportive ifRevenue growth in the industrials sector is speeding up again. It is now above 5%.
Worry ifRevenue growth is below 5%. It may keep slowing down.
Why it matters: Management aims for operating cash flow of $135 million to $150 million in 2026. Hitting this target shows good financial health.
Supportive ifOperating cash flow reaches at least $135 million in 2026.
Worry ifOperating cash flow falls below $135 million.
Why it matters: More buyback authorization shows management's confidence. This could help the share price.
Supportive ifICF buys back over 500,000 shares in the next quarter. This shows strong capital return.
Worry ifNo big share buybacks happen. This suggests low confidence in stock value.
Why it matters: More contract awards would show strong demand. This would help revenue growth expectations.
Supportive ifTotal contract awards in Q3 are over $500 million. This shows strong business development.
Worry ifTotal contract awards in Q3 are under $400 million. This shows weaker demand.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$156 on $10,000 · ±1.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $384 loss on $10,000 · 3.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,022 loss on $10,000 · 40.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if ICF can recover from recent misses and meet growth targets.
Watch forQ2 revenue is $487.6 million or more. This shows recovery from past earnings misses.
Also watch forQ2 revenue is less than $437.5 million. This shows ongoing struggles and worries about growth.
Why it matters: Revenue guidance of $1.89B to $1.96B is critical for growth. Meeting this guidance shows strong performance.
Supportive ifQ2 results show revenue growth that keeps the company on track for $1.89B to $1.96B.
Worry ifQ2 results show revenue far below $437.5 million. This shows a need for better performance.
Why it matters: More buybacks show trust in financial stability. They also boost value for shareholders.
Supportive ifShare repurchases exceed 500,000 shares in 2026.
Worry ifShare buybacks are under 500,000 shares in 2026.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows financial stability. Cutting it could mean bigger problems.
Worry ifThe company declares a dividend of $0.14 per share in the next quarter.
Less concerning ifThe company cuts or stops the dividend payment.
Why it matters: Operating cash flow is key for funding growth and dividends. Negative cash flow could raise concerns.
Worry ifOperating cash flow is over $30 million in Q2 2026. This shows recovery.
Less concerning ifOperating cash flow is negative or below $10 million. This shows ongoing issues.
Why it matters: The dividend is a key part of capital allocation. Changes could signal financial health or challenges.
Watch forThe company plans to keep or raise the dividend after July 10.
Also watch forThe company plans to cut or stop the dividend after July 10.
Why it matters: This is crucial to stay on track for the $1.89B to $1.96B revenue target for 2026.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue reported at or above $500 million.
Worry ifQ2 revenue reported below $500 million.
Why it matters: More buybacks would show confidence in cash flow. It shows commitment to shareholder returns.
Supportive ifShare repurchases are over $50 million in Q3. This shows strong capital allocation.
Worry ifShare repurchases are under $20 million in Q3. This suggests reduced confidence.
Why it matters: This growth would confirm management's guidance for a return to overall revenue growth in 2026.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue grew more than 3% from last year. This shows a return to growth.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth is less than 3% from last year. This shows ongoing struggles.
Why it matters: Growth in federal revenue is key for ICF's performance. It matches what management wants.
Supportive ifFederal government revenue shows a sequential increase from Q2 to Q3 2026.
Worry ifFederal government revenue is still falling or stays flat in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: More contract awards would show strong demand. This would help revenue growth.
Supportive ifContract awards exceed $400 million in Q3 2026.
Worry ifContract awards fall below $400 million in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: News about the share buyback program shows management's trust in cash flow and finances.
Watch forManagement increases the share buyback limit to more than $400 million.
Also watch forNo updates or a reduction in the share repurchase program.