Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
SEASTAR MEDICAL HOLDING CORP (ICU)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
$1.92-5.88%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for ICU yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain stable executive leadership | A supporting condition in SEASTAR MEDICAL HOLDING CORP's published investment case. The stated target is no further unexpected executive departures in next 12 months. | Under Pressure | unexpected termination of key executives occurs | 1 unexpected termination vs 0 allowed June 2026 officer change event reports Mr. Green's not-for-cause termination and separation agreement. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 12, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk, loss-making healthcare growth story, not a proven durable compounder. The long-term thesis is in watch mode: QUELIMMUNE growth and trial progress are constructive, but recent financial performance has been weaker than its industry cohort.
ICU is described as cheap versus peers, but the valuation model has low confidence and the expectations gap is negative. The evidence does not show that low valuation alone offsets the company’s losses or high risk, and no fragility gates have fired.
Near term, QUELIMMUNE revenue growth and progress in NEUTRALIZE-AKI support the operating story, while trial enrollment remains a mixed priority. The next earnings report carries elevated miss risk, and a guidance cut would be a meaningful setback; losses and volatile management remain concerns for the multi-year thesis.
The thesis depends on continued QUELIMMUNE customer and revenue growth, completing trial enrollment toward the year-end or early-2027 goal, and progress on FDA submissions and designations. Near term, a guidance cut or further weakening in jobs data could weigh on the business backdrop, while strong results and guidance from healthcare peers could support sector momentum.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, ICU has signs of execution in product growth and regulatory progress, but its losses, high risk, and weaker recent performance leave the thesis unproven. The key evidence to watch is delivery on enrollment, revenue growth, and guidance. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| SeaStar aims for $2 million in product sales in 2026. |
| Intact |
| net product revenue falls below $1.5 million in FY26 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Reduce operating losses and improve operating income | Operating losses are shrinking, improving from negative $4.8 million to negative $3.6 million. | Intact | operating loss worsens beyond negative $4 million in FY26 | Operating income: $-3.791M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: operating loss improves to better than negative $3.6 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 12, 2026-3,791,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Net loss for the three months ended June 30, 2026, was approximately $3.7 million, or $0.91 per share on approximately 4.1 million weighted-average shares outstanding.” “Net loss for the three months ended March 31, 2026, was approximately $3.5 million, or $0.90 per share on approximately 3.9 million weighted-average shares outstanding.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-2.33 → $-2.09 · observed estimates
$0.00B → $0.00B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-2.33 | $2,931,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-2.33 | $2,931,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-2.33 | $2,931,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-2.33 | $2,931,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-2.33 | $2,931,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-2.33 | $2,931,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-2.33 | $2,931,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-2.33 | $2,931,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-2.33 | $2,931,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-2.33 | $2,931,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-2.33 | $2,931,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-2.33 | $2,931,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-2.33 | $2,931,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-2.33 | $2,931,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-2.33 | $2,931,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-2.33 | $2,931,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-2.33 | $2,931,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-2.33 | $2,931,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-2.33 | $2,931,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-2.33 | $2,931,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-2.33 | $2,931,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-2.33 | $2,931,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-2.33 | $2,931,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-2.33 | $2,931,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-2.33 | $2,931,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-2.33 | $2,931,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-2.33 | $2,931,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-2.33 | $2,931,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-2.33 | $2,931,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-2.09 | $3,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-2.09 | $3,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-2.09 | $3,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-2.09 | $3,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-2.09 | $3,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-2.09 | $3,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-2.09 | $3,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-2.09 | $3,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-2.09 | $3,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-2.09 | $3,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-2.09 | $3,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-2.09 | $3,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-2.09 | $3,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-2.09 | $3,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-2.09 | $3,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-2.09 | $3,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-2.09 | $3,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-2.09 | $3,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-2.09 | $3,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-2.09 | $3,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-2.09 | $3,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-2.09 | $3,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-2.09 | $3,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-2.09 | $3,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-2.09 | $3,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-2.09 | $3,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-2.09 | $3,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-2.09 | $3,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-2.09 | $3,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-2.09 | $3,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-2.09 | $3,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-2.09 | $3,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-2.09 | $3,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-2.09 | $3,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-2.09 | $3,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-2.09 | $3,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-2.09 | $3,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-2.09 | $3,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-2.09 | $3,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-2.09 | $3,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-2.09 | $3,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-2.09 | $3,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-2.09 | $3,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-2.09 | $3,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-2.09 | $3,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-2.09 | $3,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-2.09 | $3,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-2.09 | $3,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-2.09 | $3,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-2.09 | $3,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-2.09 | $3,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-2.09 | $3,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-2.09 | $3,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-2.09 | $3,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-2.09 | $3,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-2.09 | $3,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-2.09 | $3,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-2.09 | $3,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-2.09 | $3,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-2.09 | $3,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-2.09 | $3,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-2.09 | $3,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-2.09 | $3,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-2.09 | $3,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-2.09 | $3,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-2.09 | $3,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-2.09 | $3,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-2.09 | $3,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-2.09 | $3,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-2.09 | $3,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-2.09 | $3,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-2.09 | $3,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-2.09 | $3,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-2.09 | $3,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.