Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
ICU Medical (ICUI)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Instruments & SuppliesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$172.62+6.67%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Instruments & SuppliesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
9.67 → 9.67 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 6 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 6; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for ICUI yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Cash from operations grows to at least $51M | Cash from operations rose to $51.3M in 2026-Q1. | Intact | cash from operations falls below $51 million in any future quarter | Cash from operations: $80.15M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=51 million USD. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 6, 202680,150,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a recovery-oriented healthcare business with improving recent results, rather than a proven, consistently profitable compounder. The long-term thesis is intact, with management execution supporting progress, but the business is still classified as loss-making.
The valuation evidence is mixed: ICUI is described as cheap versus peers, while its peer premium measure is elevated. Expectations appear close to the evidence baseline, with no major pricing fragility flagged; the valuation measure also recently declined.
Near term, the recent trend is strong: management raised guidance, and net income, operating cash flow, and gross margin have improved. Still, earnings surprises have been trending down, and the company has a history of a deep miss, so guidance execution remains important.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on management sustaining its recent progress without reversing the guidance increase. A weakening jobs trend could add pressure across healthcare names, while continued strength from sector peers could support the sector backdrop.
For the 1-to-3-year view, ICUI’s improving operating results keep the thesis intact, but continued execution and a clearer path to sustained profitability matter given the valuation uncertainty. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Second quarter 2026 GAAP revenue increased 1% year-over-year; however, excluding the impact of the IV Solutions divestiture and foreign currency, non-GAAP organic revenue increased 6%.” “Second quarter 2026 GAAP revenue was $551.7 million, as compared to $548.9 million in the same period in the prior year.”
Gross profit stays near $206M | A supporting condition in ICU Medical's published investment case. The stated target is >=206 million USD. | Under Pressure | gross profit falls below $206 million in any future quarter | Gross profit: $235.053M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=206 million USD. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 6, 2026235,053,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “GAAP gross margin for the second quarter of 2026 was 43%, as compared to 38% in the same period in the prior year.” “GAAP gross profit for the second quarter of 2026 was $235.1 million, as compared to $208.1 million in the same period in the prior year.” Gross profit was $235.053 million in 2026-Q2. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Net income improves to at least $30M | ICU Medical improved net income to $30.1M in 2026-Q1. | Intact | net income falls below $30 million in any future quarter | Net income: $19.087M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=30 million USD. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 6, 202619,087,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “The Company is updating the estimate of its full year 2026 guidance of Adjusted EBITDA from a range of $400 million to $430 million to a range of $415 million to $435 million and diluted earnings per share from a range of $7.75 to $8.45 to a range of $8.60 to $9.00.” “Adjusted EBITDA was $110.0 million for the second quarter of 2026 as compared to $100.3 million for the second quarter of 2025.” Net income was $19.087 million in 2026-Q2. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Revenue grows at least 3.5% year over year | A primary condition in ICU Medical's published investment case. The stated target is >=3.5% YoY. | Intact | revenue growth falls below 3.5% year over year next year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$9.34 → $9.67 · observed estimates
$2.27B → $2.28B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $9.34 | $2,271,971,430 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-07-25 | $9.31 | $2,266,773,657 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-07-26 | $9.34 | $2,271,971,430 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-07-27 | $9.31 | $2,266,773,657 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-07-28 | $9.34 | $2,271,971,430 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-07-29 | $9.34 | $2,271,971,430 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-07-30 | $9.34 | $2,271,971,430 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-07-31 | $9.34 | $2,271,971,430 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-01 | $9.31 | $2,266,773,657 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-02 | $9.31 | $2,266,773,657 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-03 | $9.34 | $2,271,971,430 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-04 | $9.34 | $2,271,971,430 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-05 | $9.34 | $2,271,971,430 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-06 | $9.31 | $2,266,787,943 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-07 | $9.31 | $2,266,787,943 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-08 | $9.50 | $2,273,300,000 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-09 | $9.50 | $2,273,300,000 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-10 | $9.31 | $2,266,787,943 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-12 | $9.65 | $2,288,015,640 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-13 | $9.31 | $2,266,787,943 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-14 | $9.31 | $2,266,787,943 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-15 | $9.31 | $2,266,787,943 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-16 | $9.31 | $2,266,787,943 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-17 | $9.31 | $2,266,787,943 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-18 | $9.31 | $2,266,787,943 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-19 | $9.31 | $2,266,787,943 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-20 | $9.67 | $2,280,000,000 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-21 | $9.67 | $2,280,000,000 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-22 | $9.67 | $2,280,000,000 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-23 | $9.67 | $2,280,000,000 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-24 | $9.67 | $2,280,000,000 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-25 | $9.67 | $2,280,000,000 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-26 | $9.67 | $2,280,000,000 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-27 | $9.67 | $2,280,000,000 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-28 | $9.67 | $2,280,000,000 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-29 | $9.67 | $2,280,000,000 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-30 | $9.67 | $2,280,000,000 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-31 | $9.67 | $2,280,000,000 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-01 | $9.67 | $2,280,000,000 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-02 | $9.67 | $2,280,000,000 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-03 | $9.67 | $2,280,000,000 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-04 | $9.67 | $2,280,000,000 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-05 | $9.67 | $2,280,000,000 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-06 | $9.67 | $2,280,000,000 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-07 | $9.67 | $2,280,000,000 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-08 | $9.67 | $2,280,000,000 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-09 | $9.67 | $2,280,000,000 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-10 | $9.67 | $2,280,000,000 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-11 | $9.67 | $2,280,000,000 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-12 | $9.67 | $2,280,000,000 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-13 | $9.67 | $2,280,000,000 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-14 | $9.67 | $2,280,000,000 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-15 | $9.67 | $2,280,000,000 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-16 | $9.67 | $2,280,000,000 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-17 | $9.67 | $2,280,000,000 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-18 | $9.67 | $2,280,000,000 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-19 | $9.67 | $2,280,000,000 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-20 | $9.67 | $2,280,000,000 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-21 | $9.67 | $2,280,000,000 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-22 | $9.67 | $2,280,000,000 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-23 | $9.67 | $2,280,000,000 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-24 | $9.67 | $2,280,000,000 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-25 | $9.67 | $2,280,000,000 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-26 | $9.67 | $2,280,000,000 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-27 | $9.67 | $2,280,000,000 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-28 | $9.67 | $2,280,000,000 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-29 | $9.67 | $2,280,000,000 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-30 | $9.67 | $2,280,000,000 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-01 | $9.67 | $2,280,000,000 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-02 | $9.67 | $2,280,000,000 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-03 | $9.67 | $2,280,000,000 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-04 | $9.67 | $2,280,000,000 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-05 | $9.67 | $2,280,000,000 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-06 | $9.67 | $2,280,000,000 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-07 | $9.67 | $2,280,000,000 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-08 | $9.67 | $2,280,000,000 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-09 | $9.67 | $2,280,000,000 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-10 | $9.67 | $2,280,000,000 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-11 | $9.67 | $2,280,000,000 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-12 | $9.67 | $2,280,000,000 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-13 | $9.67 | $2,280,050,771 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-14 | $9.67 | $2,280,050,771 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-15 | $9.67 | $2,280,050,771 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-16 | $9.67 | $2,280,050,771 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-17 | $9.67 | $2,280,050,771 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-18 | $9.67 | $2,280,050,771 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-19 | $9.67 | $2,280,050,771 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-20 | $9.67 | $2,280,050,771 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-21 | $9.67 | $2,280,050,771 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-22 | $9.67 | $2,280,050,771 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-23 | $9.67 | $2,280,050,771 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-24 | $9.67 | $2,280,050,771 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-25 | $9.67 | $2,280,050,771 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-26 | $9.67 | $2,280,050,771 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-27 | $9.67 | $2,280,050,771 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-28 | $9.67 | $2,280,050,771 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-29 | $9.67 | $2,280,050,771 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-30 | $9.67 | $2,280,050,771 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-31 | $9.67 | $2,280,050,771 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-11-01 | $9.67 | $2,280,050,771 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-11-02 | $9.67 | $2,280,050,771 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-11-03 | $9.67 | $2,280,007,914 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-11-04 | $9.67 | $2,280,007,914 | 6 / 7 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 7 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.