InterDigital (IDCC)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
$337.94+0.60%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · IDCC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 69.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -3.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 72.6 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 119 industry peers
IDCC — officer change
Dated 2025-09-08
The filing discloses a change to the Executive Severance and Change in Control Policy requiring arbitration agreements, which is a compensatory arrangement rather than a change in personnel.
Why it matters: Slower growth in recurring revenue may mean less demand for licenses. This impacts long-term income.
Worry ifRecurring revenue growth falls below 10% compared to last year.
Less concerning ifRecurring revenue growth stays above 10% compared to last year.
Why it matters: A drop in sector revenue growth may mean bigger problems for InterDigital.
Worry ifSector revenue growth falls below its median for the last year.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth remains above its median.
Why it matters: An increase in the dividend per share shows strong cash flow and management confidence.
Supportive ifManagement announces a dividend increase of at least 5% per share.
Worry ifNo dividend increase is announced during the next earnings call.
Why it matters: New agreements can increase revenue. They also support the company's growth plan in licensing.
Supportive ifAt least one new licensing agreement is announced. It is similar to the Amazon deal.
Worry ifNo new licensing agreements are announced in the next quarter.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$128 on $10,000 · ±1.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $435 loss on $10,000 · 4.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,650 loss on $10,000 · 36.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: New agreements can increase revenue and prove the company's technology. It shows growth in licensing.
Supportive ifThey announced at least two new licensing deals with big tech companies.
Worry ifNo new licensing agreements announced in the next quarter.
Why it matters: The arbitration result will explain the terms of a big agreement. It will affect future revenue.
Watch forThe final terms of the Amazon agreement are good. They will lead to more revenue.
Also watch forFinal terms are unfavorable or lead to a loss of revenue.
Why it matters: Completion of the conversion will impact share count and capital structure.
Watch forAll $380 million of the 2027 Notes converted by the deadline.
Also watch forLess than $380 million of the 2027 Notes converted by the deadline.
Why it matters: Net income results will show if the company can keep making money during tough times.
Worry ifQ2 net income is reported below $10 million.
Less concerning ifQ2 net income exceeds $10 million.
Why it matters: Better cash from operations is key for funding growth and paying dividends.
Supportive ifOperating cash flow increases by at least 15% year over year.
Worry ifOperating cash flow declines or stays flat year over year.
Why it matters: A lower net income margin may mean higher costs and less profit.
Worry ifNet income margin reported below 30%.
Less concerning ifNet income margin reported above 37%.
Why it matters: Stable or better net income is important for investor trust. It shows the company's financial health.
Supportive ifNet income increases from $75.3 million in Q1 2026 to above $80 million in Q2 2026.
Worry ifNet income declines further below $75 million in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: A stable or better net income margin means better cost management and more profit.
Supportive ifNet income margin reported at or above 37% in future quarters.
Worry ifNet income margin falls below 37%, showing worsening profit.
Why it matters: This guidance shows if InterDigital can maintain growth momentum after a strong Q2. A solid Q3 outlook would confirm continued demand.
Supportive ifQ3 2026 revenue guidance falls within the range of $154 million to $158 million.
Worry ifQ3 2026 revenue guidance drops below $154 million.
Why it matters: ARR growth is crucial for InterDigital's long-term success. A strong increase would show solid demand for its licensing agreements.
Supportive ifARR growth exceeds 13% YoY in Q3 2026.
Worry ifARR growth falls below 13% YoY in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: New agreements can help make more money. They show InterDigital can grow its market.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of at least one new licensing agreement in Q3 2026.
Worry ifNo new licensing agreements announced in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Adjusted EBITDA shows how well a company makes money. Meeting this goal shows good performance.
Supportive ifQ3 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance falls within the range of $86 million to $92 million.
Worry ifQ3 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance is now below $86 million.